> The first school of thought believes that AI can be achieved by mimicking real conscious beings It's important to note the true meaning behind this school of thought - that mimicry and "true" intelligence are actually equivalent. Behaviorists believe this, and the validity of the Turing Test along with it.
I think it might actually be in Civ5 that I first heard the following quote: "Asking whether a computer can think is about as useful as asking whether a submarine can swim." I think this is fairly insightful and relevant.
That's from Djigstra.
I digress. Most of the times, mimicking Nature works very well. We tend to always remember our most spectacular failure, but that's a selection bias.
Even though many AI researchers will agree that the Turing Test isn't a very good representation of "real" intelligence, this is still a huge milestone. Many, many researchers have tried and failed to pass the Turing Test.
But people will continue to dismiss the state of the art and deny that computers have "real" intelligence, the same way they did when the computer defeated Kasparov, the same way they did when we saw Googles self driving cars, the same way they did when a computer won on Jeopardy, and now with the Turing Test. Even when we have robots that look and act exactly like humans, many people will say that they are not "really" intelligent and dismiss the accomplishment. They will still be saying that when AIs twice as smart as people arrive and they have to figure out what to do with billions of what will then be, relatively speaking, mentally challenged people.
Most likely from here: >It will simplify matters for the reader if I explain first my own beliefs in the matter. Consider first the more accurate form of the question. I believe that in about fifty years' time it will be possible, to programme computers, with a storage capacity of about 109, to make them play the imitation game so well that an average interrogator will not have more than 70 per cent chance of making…
Is he talking about 109 bits? Because that seems pretty impossible to me.
> As we have mentioned, digital computers fall within the class of discrete-state machines. But the number of states of which such a machine is capable is usually enormously large. For instance, the number for the machine now working at Manchester is about 2 165,000, i.e., about 10 50,000. Compare this with our example of the clicking wheel described above, which had three states. It is not difficult to see why the number of states should be so immense. The computer includes a store corresponding to the paper used by a human computer. It must be possible to write into the store any one of the combinations of symbols which might have been written on the paper. For simplicity suppose that only digits from 0 to 9 are used as symbols. Variations in handwriting are ignored. Suppose the computer is allowed 100 sheets of paper each containing 50 lines each with room for 30 digits. Then the number of states is 10 100x50x30 i.e., 10 150,000 . This is about the number of states of three Manchester machines put together. The logarithm to the base two of the number of states is usually called the "storage capacity" of the machine. Thus the Manchester machine has a storage capacity of about 165,000 and the wheel machine of our example about 1.6. If two machines are put together their capacities must be added to obtain the capacity of the resultant machine. This leads to the possibility of statements such as "The Manchester machine contains 64 magnetic tracks each with a capacity of 2560, eight electronic tubes with a capacity of 1280. Miscellaneous storage amounts to about 300 making a total of 174,380."
I remember reading the first chapter on an AI book during college which laid out the objectives of AI research into two schools of thought.The first school of thought believes that AI can be achieved by mimicking real conscious beings. Remember when man first tried to fly, most devices mimicked birds and failed horribly. The other school of thought believes that intelligence has well-defined principles, when discover…
That book you read was Russell and Norvig, it's one of the best textbooks ever written on any subject:
Awesome job of putting un-followable links in the press release, Reading University. I'm going to take this with a hug pinch of salt until I've read the transcripts, due to the involvement of famous publicity-hound Kevin Warwick.
Yes, at this stage any time I read his name involved with something I cringe.
I remember reading the first chapter on an AI book during college which laid out the objectives of AI research into two schools of thought.The first school of thought believes that AI can be achieved by mimicking real conscious beings. Remember when man first tried to fly, most devices mimicked birds and failed horribly. The other school of thought believes that intelligence has well-defined principles, when discover…
Remember this book too. It's a classic text in AI. I think what they were trying to say in the intro is that the approach has a significant effect on how much effort is wasted. The engineering effort required to get a plane of the ground using moving wings is considerably greater than using rotational parts like propellers. Imagine how many decades would have been wasted to scale an orthinopter to handle the load of a passanger jet.
This makes me think that AI research isn't going to be a gradual process of research being built on other research but it will be a eureka or an ah-ha moment that changes everything.
Most likely from here: >It will simplify matters for the reader if I explain first my own beliefs in the matter. Consider first the more accurate form of the question. I believe that in about fifty years' time it will be possible, to programme computers, with a storage capacity of about 109, to make them play the imitation game so well that an average interrogator will not have more than 70 per cent chance of making…
Is he talking about 109 bits? Because that seems pretty impossible to me.
Indeed it should be 10^9. Likely an OCR error - you can find several other 10^9 properly formatted somewhere else in the paper.
When people imagine what a Turing Test conversation would look like, they frequently underestimate the conversation. I find Dennet's example of an imaginary Turing Test from Consciousness Explained to be a good counterexample: Judge: Did you hear about the Irishman who found a magic lamp? When he rubbed it a genie appeared and granted him three wishes. “I’ll have a pint of Guiness!” the Irishman replied and immediate…
That excerpt reads to me like writing, not conversation. Someone spent some time polishing it. I know people who can talk like that extemporaneously, but I'd wager 99% of native English speakers wouldn't pass if that's the bar.
Managing to successfully imitate an ignorant, immature child 1/3 of the time is not what I would call a success , but rather a subversion of the entire intent behind the Turing Test in the first place.
I think you're probably expecting to see a 50/50 chance (or higher) of guessing it was a computer. But if you think about it, anything better than 50% would make it more human than a human. So is why the target is lower than 50%
Wait, could you explain how a program that is capable of being mistaken for a human more than 50% of the time is more human than human?
I'm pretty sure you're human, with a high degree of confidence, much higher than 50%.