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Uber Sets Valuation Record of $17B in New Funding

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Re: Uber Sets Valuation Record of $17B in New Funding

#71
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, Uber is cheaper - until it isn't, when it implements surge pricing. It's a very different model, which makes direct comparisons tricky. The price of a London cab is regulated. Maybe that price is wrong. Uber can take advantage of it, but do you think the London taxi industry is really going to sit back and watch its market disappear without even trying to change price? And the cab driver protests are more rooted…

While they may have spent a long time learning 'The Knowledge' that was in the days before Sat Nav. Like many other things The Knowledge has been superseded by a computer.

Satnav sucks in many cities, though, especially for POIs. When I visit NYC that's one of my bigger complaints about the taxi drivers: they have no idea where anything is, and it takes them forever to try to type things into their gadgets, often with mixed success. And still they always end up in the wrong lanes and end up swerving across traffic at the last minute, because they don't actually know where they're going or how the street layout works. IMO it's shameful that someone could be a taxi driver in a major city and not be able to navigate to prominent landmarks and neighborhoods. That's at least one problem you don't have in London, where the drivers give you confidence that they might have actually been to London before.

Re: Uber Sets Valuation Record of $17B in New Funding

#72
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They will be successful in San Francisco, of that I have no doubt. From what I understand the taxi market there is horribly broken, Uber saw a gap in the market and leapt at it. The mistake, IMO, is assuming that they will be able to replicate that in other cities. In NYC you can get a taxi 90% of the time by holding your hand up in a street corner. At peak times that's more difficult, but that's also when Uber has s…

Uber is 30-40% cheaper than London cabs. Uber has rattled the cab-drivers so much that they're staging a protest next week to try to pressure cab regulators into blocking Uber's expansion. http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/may/30/will-uber-kil...

It's worth noting that all mini-cabs are 30-40% cheaper than London cabs, but it's a very fragmented industry with poor technology (Addison Lee has done a decent job). I would say 80% of my journeys in London used mini-cabs with the downside being that you had to wait 15-20 min longer (but in same cases much quicker) than black cabs.

Re: Uber Sets Valuation Record of $17B in New Funding

#73
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They will be successful in San Francisco, of that I have no doubt. From what I understand the taxi market there is horribly broken, Uber saw a gap in the market and leapt at it. The mistake, IMO, is assuming that they will be able to replicate that in other cities. In NYC you can get a taxi 90% of the time by holding your hand up in a street corner. At peak times that's more difficult, but that's also when Uber has s…

Uber is 30-40% cheaper than London cabs. Uber has rattled the cab-drivers so much that they're staging a protest next week to try to pressure cab regulators into blocking Uber's expansion. http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/may/30/will-uber-kil...

The London black cab has a meter that prices the journey. Other taxis in London do not have a price meter.

Uber needs to obey the regulatory rules of the industry. Either they don't have a pricing meter (and thus journey price is agreed before hand) or they do have a price meter and all Uber drivers are regulated like any other black cab driver.

They can't ignore laws just because those laws are inconvenient to them.

Re: Uber Sets Valuation Record of $17B in New Funding

#74
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are expanding pretty fast; have you heard of a (not so) far away country called Colombia? Well, they are already here; as they will be in all the nations that allow them to. Getting banned hurts them, but there is no universal ban in sight.

They are expanding on regulation arbitrage. Being able to bend and/or break the rules by using contractors. http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/04/17/uber-faces-rebukes-... "Oh lets operate in Paris and not pay the licensing fee for a taxi service." Etc. They've been completely and/or partially banned by more markets, larger markets than the entire country of Colombia at this point. It is the same thing as AirBNB. You…

Ironically if they go further into South America and end up in the crazy deregulated market of Peru, where it seems like most car owners operate as taxi drivers, Uber will find their value proposition being that of the regulated taxi industry (pay more and wait longer to get registered drivers who are less likely to take you to a dark alleyway full of robbers and more likely to fix the dents in their car)

Re: Uber Sets Valuation Record of $17B in New Funding

#75
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uber is 30-40% cheaper than London cabs. Uber has rattled the cab-drivers so much that they're staging a protest next week to try to pressure cab regulators into blocking Uber's expansion. http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/may/30/will-uber-kil...

The London black cab has a meter that prices the journey. Other taxis in London do not have a price meter. Uber needs to obey the regulatory rules of the industry. Either they don't have a pricing meter (and thus journey price is agreed before hand) or they do have a price meter and all Uber drivers are regulated like any other black cab driver. They can't ignore laws just because those laws are inconvenient to them.

"They can't ignore laws just because those laws are inconvenient to them."

I completely agree with you, but at the same time, for whatever reason companies (Uber / Airbnb) have been able to completely ignore rules & laws to the tune of tens of billions of dollars (in valuations).

It's almost "might makes right": ignore rules and grow as fast as possible, with the hope that you'll grow faster than the legal system can take you down. By the time the legal system could do anything, you're big enough to change the rules.

Re: Uber Sets Valuation Record of $17B in New Funding

#76
By comparison, the taxi & limo industry does $11 billion in sales across the entire US market.

For Uber to ever justify just this funding round, they'll probably need to become roughly the size of 1/3 the entire taxi business in terms of sales (assuming $3.x billion in sales and $600x million in profit off that base, and assuming a reasonable 20 to 30 pe ratio over time).

I'm guessing Uber is betting on selling customers a lot more than their current service offerings. There's no other way they can justify this type of valuation.

As of 2013, Uber was only generating $200 million in revenue for the entire year (according to the leaked numbers). Uber could grow crazy fast and still not justify this valuation for six or seven years. That's quite the long term bet being placed here.

http://www.ibisworld.com/industry/default.aspx?indid=1951

Re: Uber Sets Valuation Record of $17B in New Funding

#77
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is larger and how well has that worked for them? http://www.valuewalk.com/2014/03/tesla-motors-inc-tsla-now-b... Uber, unlike Tesla, is costing the government money in the form of licensing fees. Its contractors are not paying for such licenses frequently. You can't simply "fight" the tax system like that. Can they fight lobbying by the taxi companies? Yes. Can they convince the governments to go tax someone el…

They might be turning around that NJ loss: http://www.engadget.com/2014/06/06/tesla-resume-sales-new-je... , which puts them at 4 for 4. They're in it for the long game, and I don't see them losing it.

Do you honestly think Uber can do that while simultaneously removing per-trip, tax medallions, and other taxi related revenues from the city coffers?

Re: Uber Sets Valuation Record of $17B in New Funding

#78

The "this valuation is crazy" and "this proves a bubble" comments are filling up my Twitter feed and HN, but I couldn't disagree more. Call me crazy, but I think this valuation is completely fair. For a few reasons: Uber has serious revenue. They do more trips in San Francisco than taxis do. This isn't a pie-in-the-sky "there will be money there, I'm sure of it" thing. They bring in billions, and they're starting to…

"The on-demand-transportation market is enormous"

Yeah, but it's such an easy problem to solve. I already had a few car services on speed dial so this wasn't really a big problem to begin with. All they did was centralize and market it. I live in NYC which is probably the #1 taxi market in the world and have rarely heard someone having trouble calling for a cab.

Re: Uber Sets Valuation Record of $17B in New Funding

#79
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uber is 30-40% cheaper than London cabs. Uber has rattled the cab-drivers so much that they're staging a protest next week to try to pressure cab regulators into blocking Uber's expansion. http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/may/30/will-uber-kil...

The London black cab has a meter that prices the journey. Other taxis in London do not have a price meter. Uber needs to obey the regulatory rules of the industry. Either they don't have a pricing meter (and thus journey price is agreed before hand) or they do have a price meter and all Uber drivers are regulated like any other black cab driver. They can't ignore laws just because those laws are inconvenient to them.

"They can't ignore laws just because those laws are inconvenient to them."

But that's how you disrupt markets!

Re: Uber Sets Valuation Record of $17B in New Funding

#80
post #58
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/dr-gridlock/wp/2014/06/0... Given they are getting banned in entire markets, I think this evaluation is crazy. UPS, Fedex, etc already have software just as advanced for planning their routes. Uber isn't going to magically beat them somehow. Heck, part of why they lean on the USPS is there is some economics in delivery outside of big cities that create a situation where it makes no…

>Given they are getting banned in entire markets isn't it the best confirmation of how big deal they are? Their value isn't in the "logistics math" or other hi-tech mumbo-jumbo. Their value is in the successful building of the momentum, a huge storm wave which can break through existing regulations which hasn't changed in a hundred years. An ability to change political things to be in your favor is one of the most im…

No? If I ran an unlicensed taxi service out of my home using my car I'd be banned too.
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