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Ask HN: How to estimate (best case) early user growth?

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Ask HN: How to estimate (best case) early user growth?

#1

Post by smanek »

How do you estimate/predict a new startup's growth? A lot of potential investors want to see numbers like this in a model - and establishing some 'upper bounds' on growth would be helpful for planning technology as well.

I would love to see approximate early growth numbers (first 1-2 years) for social web applications (ideally popular/successful ones, but anything would be helpful). My application is addressing a relatively new market with a large potential appeal (think Craigslist, Ebay, Google, Yelp, Youtube, etc. in their early days), but numbers in different spaces would be helpful as well.

If anyone would be willing to share some numbers for iPhone or Android Applications, I would be grateful as well.

Thanks for the help.

Re: Ask HN: How to estimate (best case) early user growth?

#3

Post by smanek »

lsb wrote: post #2

What are your numbers so far?

We are prelaunch, so no numbers yet. We are doing a small 'soft launch' in a few weeks (I'll mention it here when the time comes) - but the business guys could use a hand estimating 'best case' numbers (some potential partners, investors, etc. are interested).

Incidentally it would also help me figure out if my back-of-napkin load-testing numbers are in the right ballpark.

I know this is a bit premature for me, but the question piqued my curiosity and I couldn't find very much written about it (please feel free to correct me if my Google-fu is lacking).

Re: Ask HN: How to estimate (best case) early user growth?

#4

Post by tom »

Have you launched something yet? Paid service? Free? Freemium? Without launching and looking at real, initial numbers just assume you'll be like 99% of the startups out there and get none. That's what your potential jnvestors will do until they see some real numbers.

Seriously, get something real, prove you're on to something, and THEN talk numbers with investors. You've got a bigtime uphill battle without at least one solid proof point. Get that, and then hockeystick that sucker up!

Re: Ask HN: How to estimate (best case) early user growth?

#6

Post by JeremyChase »

tom wrote: post #4

Have you launched something yet? Paid service? Free? Freemium? Without launching and looking at real, initial numbers just assume you'll be like 99% of the startups out there and get none. That's what your potential jnvestors will do until they see some real numbers. Seriously, get something real, prove you're on to something, and THEN talk numbers with investors. You've got a bigtime uphill battle without at least o…

I have to echo this as well. Most products have a flat line, with perhaps a spike from publicity.

Re: Ask HN: How to estimate (best case) early user growth?

#7

Post by smanek »

tom wrote: post #4

Have you launched something yet? Paid service? Free? Freemium? Without launching and looking at real, initial numbers just assume you'll be like 99% of the startups out there and get none. That's what your potential jnvestors will do until they see some real numbers. Seriously, get something real, prove you're on to something, and THEN talk numbers with investors. You've got a bigtime uphill battle without at least o…

Completely free.

I agree with you - we won't be raising money till after we launch and (hopefully) gain some traction. But one of our founders is handling the business side of things and really wants to get at least some rough numbers now. Given his considerable business experience (and the lack of downside to letting him create his model), it sounds like a reasonable request. Rather than have him pull the numbers out of his head, I thought it would be better to do some research.

Don't worry, all our technical people (myself included) are completely focused on making the product as great as possible for launch! And, for what it's worth, we are following a very quick schedule - just two or three months of part time development before we launch and start iterating on user feedback.

Re: Ask HN: How to estimate (best case) early user growth?

#8

Post by bilbo0s »

tom wrote: post #4

Have you launched something yet? Paid service? Free? Freemium? Without launching and looking at real, initial numbers just assume you'll be like 99% of the startups out there and get none. That's what your potential jnvestors will do until they see some real numbers. Seriously, get something real, prove you're on to something, and THEN talk numbers with investors. You've got a bigtime uphill battle without at least o…

I agree with @tom's sentiment here. Though I would like to add something, just as a note to you. If you have 'investors' that are interested in those estimates, you should probably rethink the wisdom of doing business with them.

The portion of your post that indicated that potential investors were interested in the numbers threw a red flag up for me.

Re: Ask HN: How to estimate (best case) early user growth?

#9

Post by smanek »

bilbo0s wrote: post #8
tom wrote: post #4

Have you launched something yet? Paid service? Free? Freemium? Without launching and looking at real, initial numbers just assume you'll be like 99% of the startups out there and get none. That's what your potential jnvestors will do until they see some real numbers. Seriously, get something real, prove you're on to something, and THEN talk numbers with investors. You've got a bigtime uphill battle without at least o…

I agree with @tom's sentiment here. Though I would like to add something, just as a note to you. If you have 'investors' that are interested in those estimates, you should probably rethink the wisdom of doing business with them. The portion of your post that indicated that potential investors were interested in the numbers threw a red flag up for me.

I think it's just informal interest. One of our founders has a lot of VC friends/ex-colleagues and he just wants to be ready for our launch in a few weeks. We won't be raising money that early, but it seems like he can talk to some people and get us on their radar earlier than normal (so they know us (and we know them) for when we are ready).

I'm willing to defer to the business-founder with experience on this matter.

Re: Ask HN: How to estimate (best case) early user growth?

#10

Post by chinmi »

It's quite impossible to predict those numbers, as it depends on so many other factors outside of "it's a social web application!".

For these kinds of things the only thing you can depend on before launch, for better or worse, is your own common sense.

In an industry that tries to be successful by providing value for free, all bets are off and the old rules don't apply anymore.

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