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Fraudulent trading activity at Mt. Gox

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11–20 of 137 posts

Re: Fraudulent trading activity at Mt. Gox

#11
post #4

Further proof that the absurd run-up in November when bitcoin reached $1,200 was illegitimate.

Unfortunately this is plausible: The only reliable way to trigger a run-up in a commodity is to expend a lot of capital to acquire that asset at inflated prices- You'd have to "burn through" a lot of money to get this to happen.

...so, then where was this cache of money that was destroyed to inflate the price? It would have to be a pretty large quantity to have such a drastic impact.

Occam's Razor to me suggests the answer is obvious: The vaporized deposits of MtGox users are the most obvious large cache of money, large enough to cause such a run up.

The next question is, who would do this, and why? The answer suggested by Occam's razor would be "Someone who could modify the MtGox database to create nonexistent fiat currency, but could not (or did not want to) create fake MtGox bitcoin holdings." This is because a person with this power would have reason to trade the "fake fiat" with legitimate bitcoin holders to generate bitcoins that can be leeched out of the site, and this would certainly cause the price to rise.

This doesn't answer however whether it was an inside or external party, I could imagine scenarios both with or without inside actors that would lead to this kind of activity. (Though I'd put my bet on internal fraud, based on the fact that so much effort was put into hiding the fraud and extending it over a long period, as opposed to going for quick profit.)

Re: Fraudulent trading activity at Mt. Gox

#12

The reason I'm inclined to believe this report's implications about Karpeles is because I spent a long time in Mt. Gox's IRC support channel talking with support reps, and they were paid to lie. They didn't know they were being paid to lie, but they were instructed by management to say "don't worry, all user coins are safe" right up until the day the Mt. Gox crisis report was leaked. They could have said "we are inve…

I don't know about "escaping all consequences," unless his idea of "escaping all consequences" is having to watch his back for the rest of his life. Seems like a pretty dumb way to make a few million bucks, IMHO.

Re: Fraudulent trading activity at Mt. Gox

#13
post #10

Step 1: create USD out of thin air. Step 2: buy BTC at $1200. Step 3: sell BTC at $200. Step 4: profit!

Yes, this is exactly right, but you should clarify:

Step 1: create USD_FAKE out of thin air.

Step 2: buy BTC at 1200 USD_FAKE on MtGox.

Step 3: sell BTC at 1100 USD_REAL on Bitstamp.

Step 4: profit!

Re: Fraudulent trading activity at Mt. Gox

#14
post #10

Step 1: create USD out of thin air. Step 2: buy BTC at $1200. Step 3: sell BTC at $200. Step 4: profit!

Start : (Markus: $0) (Joe: 1BTC)

Step 1: (Markus: $1200) (Joe: 1BTC)

Step 2: (Markus: 1BTC) (Joe: $1200)

Step 3: (Markus: $200) (Joe: 1BTC, $1000)

Step 4: Piss off Joe by preventing him from withdrawing his imaginary profits.

I don't understand what Markus gains in this situation.

Re: Fraudulent trading activity at Mt. Gox

#15
post #10

Step 1: create USD out of thin air. Step 2: buy BTC at $1200. Step 3: sell BTC at $200. Step 4: profit!

Start : (Markus: $0) (Joe: 1BTC) Step 1: (Markus: $1200 ) (Joe: 1BTC) Step 2: (Markus: 1BTC) (Joe: $1200 ) Step 3: (Markus: $200 ) (Joe: 1BTC, $1000 ) Step 4: Piss off Joe by preventing him from withdrawing his imaginary profits. I don't understand what Markus gains in this situation.

Markus' $1200 isn't his (in fact, it never existed), whereas Joe's $200 is very real. Markus gains $200.

Re: Fraudulent trading activity at Mt. Gox

#16
post #4

Further proof that the absurd run-up in November when bitcoin reached $1,200 was illegitimate.

Whether or not the run-up was "legitimate" in your eyes is inconsequential - the exchange rate ran up to the point that the market could no longer bear, then crashed back to reality. Does the run-up's legitimacy somehow make the current exchange rate illegitimate? I think not.

Re: Fraudulent trading activity at Mt. Gox

#17
post #2

The fraud continues today in China. Those exchanges were caught several times faking volume and placing phantom orders. I think the game now is: fake price hike in China, sell coins for real money on Bitstamp, buy cheaper, repeat. Just look at the recent hike - no news, no reason for 30% jump from $440 to $580 in a week.

> Just look at the recent hike - no news There was a Federal Election Commission (FEC) decision to allow BTC donations to Political Action Committees (PAC's). Also circle.com showed started taking e-mails and showed a demo video.

This does not qualify as a bullish catalyst.

Re: Fraudulent trading activity at Mt. Gox

#18

The reason I'm inclined to believe this report's implications about Karpeles is because I spent a long time in Mt. Gox's IRC support channel talking with support reps, and they were paid to lie. They didn't know they were being paid to lie, but they were instructed by management to say "don't worry, all user coins are safe" right up until the day the Mt. Gox crisis report was leaked. They could have said "we are inve…

I don't know about "escaping all consequences," unless his idea of "escaping all consequences" is having to watch his back for the rest of his life. Seems like a pretty dumb way to make a few million bucks, IMHO.

Especially since he could have been a legitimate multi-millionaire just by doing things correctly. The market lead MtGox had is something people dream about.

Re: Fraudulent trading activity at Mt. Gox

#19
post #10

Step 1: create USD out of thin air. Step 2: buy BTC at $1200. Step 3: sell BTC at $200. Step 4: profit!

Start : (Markus: $0) (Joe: 1BTC) Step 1: (Markus: $1200 ) (Joe: 1BTC) Step 2: (Markus: 1BTC) (Joe: $1200 ) Step 3: (Markus: $200 ) (Joe: 1BTC, $1000 ) Step 4: Piss off Joe by preventing him from withdrawing his imaginary profits. I don't understand what Markus gains in this situation.

Assuming "Joe" represents the entire userbase of Mt. Gox, which deposited its own money into the system:

Start : (Markus: $0) (Joe: 1BTC, $200)

Step 1: (Markus: $1200) (Joe: 1BTC, $200)

Step 2: (Markus: 1BTC) (Joe: $200 + 1200)

Step 3: (Markus: $200) (Joe: 1BTC, $1200)

Assuming Markus withdraws fiat before Joe does, Mt. Gox only had $200 in real money and $1200 in fake make-believe numbers, so Joe is left unable to withdraw.

Re: Fraudulent trading activity at Mt. Gox

#20
post #2

The fraud continues today in China. Those exchanges were caught several times faking volume and placing phantom orders. I think the game now is: fake price hike in China, sell coins for real money on Bitstamp, buy cheaper, repeat. Just look at the recent hike - no news, no reason for 30% jump from $440 to $580 in a week.

Right now the exchange rate on Bitstamp is USD 576 and the rate on Huobi is RMB 3578. Converted, those prices are within one-half of one percent of each other.

If there are fake price hikes in China, wouldn't Huobi prices be higher? And how would buying coins for real money on Bitstamp allow you to buy for cheaper anywhere else?

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