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Good Poker Players Aren't Lucky

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Re: Good Poker Players Aren't Lucky

#101
post #73

Is this skill-based rule is why every game in a casino is so bad? The article is about how poker is starting to be considered a game of skill and so not under the restrictions of gambling, and thus legal generally. Is there a similar law that is the inverse of this that restricts casinos to games of non-skill instead of actually good games? I mean, you'd never sit down with friends and play roulette or blackjack or a…

Gambling games are bad for the exact same reasons that grind-based are bad: people play them for the addictive reward mechanisms. If you're not affected by those mechanisms, you're usually left with garbage. Variable rewards are also the reason why poker is one of the few games with a heavy skill component that can move large amounts of money directly between players; few people are willing to be a sucker. So losing…

>Gambling games are bad for the exact same reasons that grind-based are bad: people play them for the addictive reward mechanisms. If you're not affected by those mechanisms, you're usually left with garbage.

Wouldn't these games be even more appealing if had the same reward mechanisms but were also intrinsically interesting?

>The most popular poker games tend to land on the sweet spot where "enough luck that bad players can think they're good" and "enough skill that you can actually be good" meet.

You'd think you'd see games along this continuum but poker is alone in the sweet spot. The other casino games aren't even worth considering.

Re: Good Poker Players Aren't Lucky

#102

"His study of more than a billion hands of online Texas Hold’em found that 85.2 percent of the hands were decided without a show of cards. In other words, players’ betting decisions were of overwhelming importance in determining the outcome. " (emphasis added) This is a tautology; the real question is whether there is significant discretion in making those decisions. The 85% statistic is meaningless without knowing h…

Also, share of hands isn't share of stake. Sure, lots of hands of Hold'em are folded out -- often before the flop. But what share of the amount wagered is decided that way may be pretty different than what share of the hands are decided that way.

Re: Good Poker Players Aren't Lucky

#103
post #61
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As evidence for what I say I will tell you I have won thousands of dollars at Roulette. Far beyond what one should win "by chance" which should be a negative number for the amount I have played. Things have changed a bit since then and I don't play anymore. If you start winning more than you should you become known. I will tell you that. And this changes things. For example, one technique I used was taking advantage…

Frankly, I expect a certain level of proof that you have won long-term at Roulette. A session win/loss log would be sufficient. The house edge in roulette is huge. Anyone claiming to be a winner at roulette in the long term is either lying or delusional. An equivalent claim would be someone claiming to double their money in the stock market every year for years on end.

I'm willing to go with delusional here, at least as far as mistaking confirmation bias for reality goes...

Re: Good Poker Players Aren't Lucky

#104
post #91
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would still be more substantial than anything he has offered so far. To make an assertion that a game of roulette in a licensed casino is not random is in the realm of moon landing conspiracy. PS: I also think it's rather sad and transparent that you created a new shill account to reply to me.

Look, as I stated twice before, I don't claim to prove anything. If you chose to believe I am misrepresenting my experiences (motive?) that's fine. I understand. I'm just relating the results of a lot... and I do mean a lot (as in hundreds if not thousands of hours) of observation in hope it saves someone some money from the table bumping scam. I have seen drunks cleaned out with it more than a few times. But you can…

I don't think thousands of hours playing roulette places you in the 'rational and detached follower of the scientific method' camp, somehow

Re: Good Poker Players Aren't Lucky

#106
post #103
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Frankly, I expect a certain level of proof that you have won long-term at Roulette. A session win/loss log would be sufficient. The house edge in roulette is huge. Anyone claiming to be a winner at roulette in the long term is either lying or delusional. An equivalent claim would be someone claiming to double their money in the stock market every year for years on end.

I'm willing to go with delusional here, at least as far as mistaking confirmation bias for reality goes...

Are you claiming I never witnessed the loose leg table bump scam? That in fact I never beat the house at roulette with some degree of consistency?

Little snipes are easy. But I can tell you both are the case and I am neither lying nor delusional. And,

I'll go ahead and reply to your snipe at the very bottom of the thread as well. Don't mistake the word "observation" for the word "playing". I assure you my observations were fairly objective. And this is why I was able to win at roulette over a period of time. And I became known. This happens.

Feel free to regard it as delusion or whatever and snipe away. It would be nice if you believed me but hey... it doesn't matter. The table bump scam happens. You would be wise to admit that maybe it does if you play roulette and watch for it. If you don't... I guess believe however.

Re: Good Poker Players Aren't Lucky

#107
post #104
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Look, as I stated twice before, I don't claim to prove anything. If you chose to believe I am misrepresenting my experiences (motive?) that's fine. I understand. I'm just relating the results of a lot... and I do mean a lot (as in hundreds if not thousands of hours) of observation in hope it saves someone some money from the table bumping scam. I have seen drunks cleaned out with it more than a few times. But you can…

I don't think thousands of hours playing roulette places you in the 'rational and detached follower of the scientific method' camp, somehow

Thanks for your opinion.

Observation is observation and it makes one a bit of an expert.

Was it "confirmation bias" and "delusion" when I saw a practicing dealer place the ball on the green zero 4 times in a row? Was it "imagination" when I took advantage of that and won a bunch of money? I have a lot of stories like this.

You weren't there. You don't know. You don't have to believe me. If you want to take the time... go observe for yourself.

Re: Good Poker Players Aren't Lucky

#108
post #52
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It absolutely is not a load of rubbish. I have personally observed it many times. And I have spent a LOT of time observing. I don't claim to have "proof" however I know what I have seen. I also didn't say "reputable" (a strange word in this context). Also, every/most Casino does not engage in this but some do. Your claim "they wouldn't do this because they already have an edge" is just silly. Why wouldn't they take a…

As evidence for what I say I will tell you I have won thousands of dollars at Roulette. Far beyond what one should win "by chance" which should be a negative number for the amount I have played. Things have changed a bit since then and I don't play anymore. If you start winning more than you should you become known. I will tell you that. And this changes things. For example, one technique I used was taking advantage…

During my roulette "career" which spanned 6 or 7 years I came across maybe 3 or 4 other people who had "figured the game out" to some extent. I never talked with them about it. I became obsessed with beating the game during this time. And I will attest that it can be done to a certain extent at certain times and places. Casinos are wiser now though I believe. They sometimes reverse the wheel direction between spins. They often use different sized balls each spin. This doesn't mean patterns don't exist. It just means they are much more complex and difficult. The easiest to take advantage of are those casinos which employee dealers who are able to aim the ball where they want. This cheating can be used against them. Lazy dealers are good too. They sometimes develop consistency in their throw and quite often the ball will land in a predictable area if you watch careful the position of the wheel when it is released. These were hard to find and even more so now. Here were my informal rules in case anyone is curious:

1) You have to know the wheel and sectors by heart. If you don't, you can't determine patterns when they arise.

2) Don't sit down. You are never going to play for more than a couple of spins. If you don't win, move on. If you do win don't push it. Don't let the eye in the sky observe a repeatable pattern from you. Salt your real bets with some decoy bets.

3) Don't gamble. If you can't determine a probable pattern, don't play. You don't play most of the time.

4) Watch for sectors that seem to follow other sectors. With enough observation you will begin to learn these. When the dealer picks up the ball and throws it a rhythm often develops. The point from which they pick the ball up is the last number. If they remove the ball from the wheel between throws... that isn't a table to play unless you are confident they are good at "aiming" (which is rare). These "follow sectors" are often consistent between dealers, casinos and tables when the pattern forms. As and example, 32 often comes after number 23 if a certain pattern is being formed. If you find that pattern... you have found a dealer in a rut. Time to lay down a bet or two based on other "follows" you know to be in the pattern.

5) Don't drink. You are working. But appearing to drink is cool. Appearing a bit tipsy even better.

6) Don't sit and stare at the table while observing. Walk casually by and glance at the number board. Look curiously as if you are trying to figure out how the game works. If there are some penny or nickle slots with a good view of the action you are in luck. Take a seat and slowly spend some pennies while observing.

But my real advice? Don't waste your time. It's hard, Casinos are wiser now and opportunities less. If you do figure it out and push it they __will__ know who you are and you won't push it long before they take steps. When you go to the next casino surprise.... they will know who you are as well! Don't expect a sleepy dealer.

For whatever it is worth.

Re: Good Poker Players Aren't Lucky

#109
in boise you can bet on horse racing. Picking a winning horse out of a field of 12 uniformly looking horses and jocks, involves very little skill and boat load of luck. You can gamble money on power ball and scratch offs which is all luck. The ban on gambling has more to do with the inability to collect state taxes on home games etc...

Re: Good Poker Players Aren't Lucky

#110
post #63
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> By that reasoning, basketball is a game of chance, depending on the level of the players. They're going to lob it up there and hope it goes in. I think that would be a fair point to make

I don't. The idea that some players' skill is so low that their ability is indistinguishable from pure luck does not diminish the idea that basketball is very much a skill-based game.

That seems to apply equally to poker...
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