71–80 of 131 posts
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@zep Of course feel players are doing EV analysis, but that's 99% about estimating hand ranges properly. The math is certainly the most simplistic part of the analysis.
EV = "Earned Value"? Could you outline the process or point to a place to read up on it WRT poker?
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And those both seem awfully similar to the stock market. If you're good at poker over the long-term, then you may be better off "gambling" than "investing." And hey, at least when you lose at poker, you may have still enjoyed it -- no one enjoys a stock market crash. Oh, and don't get me started on naked futures/forward positions...
Okay, I'll bite. Why is having a naked futures contract in the S&P500 (which costs around $100,000 for the e-mini) any more risky than owning $100,000 of stocks? [0] http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/us-index/e-mini...
I mean, you'd never sit down with friends and play roulette or blackjack or any casino game just for fun, right? It's be incredibly boring because you have zero choices and without the thrill of money being on the line there is no reason to play them. I wouldn't even put them in the 'game' category. You may as well flip a coin over and over. Even card counting BlackJack is just game of not getting kicked out by the casino -- counting cards itself is simply memorizing a table and has no choices either.
I've always been mystified people can spend hours in a casino playing the least interesting games I could imagine.
Poker is the lone exception. Poker with friends for trivial stakes still good. I can think of plenty of games with similar variance so beginners would always do reasonably well against experts and they'd still be be a million times more interesting than everything else in the casino.
You'd think with all the money in the gambling industry that some effort would be put towards making the games themselves intrinsically better.
Could you open up a 'casino' anywhere that instead used games that were obviously skill based because it woudn't be considered gambling? Poker is one of the most popular casino games and it's also the only game of skill Why not more?
tldr: Why are Casino games so bad?
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And those both seem awfully similar to the stock market. If you're good at poker over the long-term, then you may be better off "gambling" than "investing." And hey, at least when you lose at poker, you may have still enjoyed it -- no one enjoys a stock market crash. Oh, and don't get me started on naked futures/forward positions...
>no one enjoys a stock market crash. >Oh, and don't get me started on naked futures/forward positions... Some of the people that purchase these are plenty happy during a crash. What is it about time-based derivatives that you have a problem with in particular?
And I don't have a problem with futures/forwards at all. I have a problem with people arguing there is less risk with naked futures/forwards (especially commodities/currencies) than there is playing poker; therefore poker, IMO, should be no less legal.
I'm asking this because I once met a guy that was making a living playing online and it made me think. Would a computer program do better than a human in that context? It seems not to be the case, otherwise everybody would be using a program to replace them and humans player couldn't make profit anymore.
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It is "house-edged" in the sense the game is slightly negative summed due to the rake.
Brokers take a transaction fee.
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As evidence for what I say I will tell you I have won thousands of dollars at Roulette. Far beyond what one should win "by chance" which should be a negative number for the amount I have played. Things have changed a bit since then and I don't play anymore. If you start winning more than you should you become known. I will tell you that. And this changes things. For example, one technique I used was taking advantage…
Frankly, I expect a certain level of proof that you have won long-term at Roulette. A session win/loss log would be sufficient. The house edge in roulette is huge. Anyone claiming to be a winner at roulette in the long term is either lying or delusional. An equivalent claim would be someone claiming to double their money in the stock market every year for years on end.
"Anyone claiming to be a winner at roulette in the long term is either lying or delusional." Possibly but you don't know this. Besides he doesn't claim "over the long term" and states WHY he quit playing.
"The house edge in roulette is huge." Yes. IF the game is random. Read the post above.
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It absolutely is not a load of rubbish. I have personally observed it many times. And I have spent a LOT of time observing. I don't claim to have "proof" however I know what I have seen. I also didn't say "reputable" (a strange word in this context). Also, every/most Casino does not engage in this but some do. Your claim "they wouldn't do this because they already have an edge" is just silly. Why wouldn't they take a…
Come on, you're presenting anecdotal evidence to prove that Roulette isn't statistically random with a built in mathematical house edge. It's just silly.
Besides, he clearly states he isn't attempting to "prove" anything but only relating an account.
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@zep Of course feel players are doing EV analysis, but that's 99% about estimating hand ranges properly. The math is certainly the most simplistic part of the analysis.
EV = "Earned Value"? Could you outline the process or point to a place to read up on it WRT poker?
I wonder how well computers can play poker and also, how different it is to play online rather than with actual people around a table. I'm asking this because I once met a guy that was making a living playing online and it made me think. Would a computer program do better than a human in that context? It seems not to be the case, otherwise everybody would be using a program to replace them and humans player couldn't…
Online poker lacks the physical 'tells' that occur in a live game, like making an obvious fake reaction to some event. But, there are also some online 'tells' such as reaction speed.
I used to play a lot of online poker.