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The Android Opportunity

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Re: The Android Opportunity

#51

Post by mattmaroon »

mechanical_fish wrote: post #14
mattmaroon wrote: post #6

He's missing the #1 area where you can compete with Apple (at least for now) and why I think the Palm Pre will do well: carriers. Most people, even high-end smart phone users, choose their carrier first and their phone second. You'd lose sight of that reading TechCrunch or Engadget too much, but talk to people in middle America and you realize it's overwhelming. Be it due to laziness, marketing, employer discounts, c…

the #1 area where you can compete with Apple (at least for now) Your qualifier here explains why Gruber doesn't dwell on this. He wants a competitor to Apple that can succeed in the long haul, not a bunch of scavengers who survive for another year or two, picking off the edges of the market that Apple hasn't gotten around to steamrolling yet. Indeed, my off-the-cuff take on the state of the market is that Apple's car…

I'm not so sure Apple will fix this. I mean, why did Apple tether themselves to AT&T in the first place? AT&T was a giant turd that everyone hated 2 years ago, just like it is now. If anything it's gotten far better in that time, and the iPhone has racked up serious sales. It wouldn't surprise me if both parties are very happy with their relationship, and AT&T willing to concede even more for exclusivity.

They did it because they thought they'd make more money that way, and maybe they did, and maybe they still will. Maybe they knew they'd sell 1/2 as many phones that way, but make 3x more per phone and therefore come out ahead, and maybe that math hasn't changed. Certainly AT&T will cling to the iPhone the way the Cavaliers will to LeBron.

Verizon doesn't need Apple. They'll steamroll AT&T with turds like the Blackberry Storm if they have to because they're far and away the best network in the U.S. and everybody loves them. Apple needs Verizon far more though, which means they won't get anywhere near the deal there they will from AT&T in terms of money, control, etc.

So if I had to bet (with someone who doesn't have insider info of course) I'd say we see continued exclusivity with AT&T. I wouldn't lay odds on it, but I'd take even money.

Re: The Android Opportunity

#52

Post by jacobian »

nuclear_eclipse wrote: post #37
jacobian wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since you've got no problems with Android, maybe you can solve mine: - Why does the phone crash when I try to pair with my bluetooth headset? - Why do all eleventy-billion of my contacts show up in the dialer instead of the relatively small handful who've got phone numbers? - Why the *@#$% doesn't this thing have a proper headphone jack? - How do I sync music between my computer and my G1? - How about podcasts? - How…

- Why do all eleventy-billion of my contacts show up in the dialer instead of the relatively small handful who've got phone numbers? Because the Dialer app is listing all of your contacts, because it serves as both the Dialer and the Contacts app all rolled into one. - Why the @#$% doesn't this thing have a proper headphone jack? Yell at HTC, not Android. - How do I sync music between my computer and my G1? Plug the…

That, my friends, is what's called "missing the forest for the trees." Yes, every single one of my question has an easy answer. Yup, just need to install this app or activate this hidden preference or tweak my Xorg.conf, or learn to live with the problem...

Using this device is like the death of a thousand cuts. None are even remotely fatal, but over time there's just a mounting list of little annoyances. Everything's 95%; nothing Just Works. I stopped using Linux on the desktop because I didn't want to have to be a sysadmin on my personal hardware; having to monkey with my phone is even less my idea of a good time.

My iPhone bit the dust, so I've been using a G1 that Google graciously gave me for free. I really want to like it! After just a couple days with it, though, I'm nearly ready to plunk down cash for a new iPhone. Google's seriously got a problem if they can't even get me to use their platform at the price free (actually, I'll save $200 if I stick with Android, so it's even worse).

Re: The Android Opportunity

#53

Post by jrockway »

rimantas wrote: post #43
jrockway wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I did not downmod you, but I don't really understand what you are trying to say. You emphasized some vague words, but adding stars everywhere does not really help get the point across. Please explain in detail what you mean.

Ok, imagine 12 hour transatlantic flight. What is about what you did — you flew across Atlantic. Then ther is the how part — it can be either in economy class with no legroom, crammed between to sweaty, drunk and snoring gentlemen or it can be in private jet. Is the difference between what and how any more clear now, or is is still vague? Update: I do not say that Android phones are economy class and iPhone is privat…

Not really the same thing. iPhone vs. Android is more like comparing business class on BA vs. business class on AA. Both are nice, but neither are first class. (And just like with the phones, it's a trade-off. BA has pretty awful food, and AA's seat does not lay 180 degrees flat.)

Re: The Android Opportunity

#54

Post by mattmaroon »

qhoxie wrote: post #9
mattmaroon wrote: post #6

He's missing the #1 area where you can compete with Apple (at least for now) and why I think the Palm Pre will do well: carriers. Most people, even high-end smart phone users, choose their carrier first and their phone second. You'd lose sight of that reading TechCrunch or Engadget too much, but talk to people in middle America and you realize it's overwhelming. Be it due to laziness, marketing, employer discounts, c…

Most people, even high-end smart phone users, choose their carrier first and their phone second. I think there is a lot of truth to that, but I also have seen a big shift since the iPhone. Countless friends and colleagues of mine have said something along the lines of "I would never use AT&T if it were not for the iPhone."

The numbers indicate that it's a small shift at best. People switch carriers every 3-4 years on average (usually citing employer discounts, pricing plans, family networks, etc,) meaning that for any given phone, you'd expect 25-33% of purchasers to be new customers. The iPhone is somewhere between 30-40%, meaning that it's probably outperforming the average by 5-10%, which is great but not indicative of a sea change in consumer habits.

It's probably more effective at keeping people on AT&T who would otherwise have left than in bringing new people on.

Re: The Android Opportunity

#55

Post by jrockway »

jacobian wrote: post #52
nuclear_eclipse wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

- Why do all eleventy-billion of my contacts show up in the dialer instead of the relatively small handful who've got phone numbers? Because the Dialer app is listing all of your contacts, because it serves as both the Dialer and the Contacts app all rolled into one. - Why the @#$% doesn't this thing have a proper headphone jack? Yell at HTC, not Android. - How do I sync music between my computer and my G1? Plug the…

That, my friends, is what's called "missing the forest for the trees." Yes, every single one of my question has an easy answer. Yup, just need to install this app or activate this hidden preference or tweak my Xorg.conf, or learn to live with the problem... Using this device is like the death of a thousand cuts. None are even remotely fatal, but over time there's just a mounting list of little annoyances. Everything'…

I can do the "death by a thousand cuts" thing to the iPhone just as easily as you can do it to Android. Every user has different priorities.

(You also mentioned Xorg.conf. I have not had one of those for years.)

Re: The Android Opportunity

#56

Post by thwarted »

potatolicious wrote: post #48
nuclear_eclipse wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

- Why do all eleventy-billion of my contacts show up in the dialer instead of the relatively small handful who've got phone numbers? Because the Dialer app is listing all of your contacts, because it serves as both the Dialer and the Contacts app all rolled into one. - Why the @#$% doesn't this thing have a proper headphone jack? Yell at HTC, not Android. - How do I sync music between my computer and my G1? Plug the…

You've told us why these things are the way they are, but I get the feeling you feel that this alone justifies these gigantic UI holes. - because it serves as both the Dialer and the Contacts app all rolled into one. Is this a good idea? When I'm in my Dialer, presumably I only want to call people. Surely the system should sense context (likewise, if I'm in the email app, it should show contacts for whom I have no em…

Is [it serving as both the Dialer and the Contacts app all rolled into one] a good idea? When I'm in my Dialer, presumably I only want to call people. Surely the system should sense context (likewise, if I'm in the email app, it should show contacts for whom I have no email!).

There is a "dialer" app that shows the phone pad. There is a contacts app tha shows all your contacts. While the device has phone functionality, it actually does a lot more, and showing all your contacts, and all the methods to contact them, actually makes sense when you have multiple methods (voice, SMS, IM, email) available. The contacts list even shows you if someone is currently on IM.

[Open the contact, long-press on the desired number, and select Make Default Number is] Invisible and undiscoverable except by accident - this is a UI failure. The fact that this is not displayed implies to the user that it cannot be changed.

Just like the long hold on the icons on the iphone so you can move them around and rearrange them (and then they shake?) is invisible and undiscoverable except by accident. It took me forever to find out how to do this on my iPod touch.

Re: The Android Opportunity

#57

Post by lacker »

jvdh wrote: post #18
lacker wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm confused by this comment. In this article Gruber is saying how much better iPhones are than everything else. He doesn't seem to take the biggest criticism of "no fixed keyboard" seriously.

He has taken the "no fixed keyboard" argument seriously. He wrote about it a number of times. He came to the conclusion that (when implemented well) there is not much of a difference, except user preference. http://daringfireball.net/2009/07/mobile_phone_keyboards

It just depends on your definition of "taking it seriously". For example in that article Gruber says

Most people can thumb-type just as well, if not better, on an iPhone as they could on a BlackBerry.

I prefer the iPhone to a Blackberry overall, but the argument that there is no advantage to typing on a Blackberry is just not true. Here's a better analysis:

http://msgnet.org/2008/08/blackberry-vs-iphone-simplified/

Re: The Android Opportunity

#58

Post by alain94040 »

Here at FairSoftware, we are watching closely which platform developers are most interested in, and iPhone is almost 10X ahead of Android.

I have been thinking for a year that Android would catch up, but I still don't see real signs.

Re: The Android Opportunity

#59

Post by unalone »

jrockway wrote: post #40
mrshoe wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I sync my music with a Perl script that looks at my xmms2 playlist and copies the music in there to the phone. For some reason I don't think this is exactly what Gruber had in mind when he said, "The goal should be to make a phone that is better than the iPhone. Better ."

It's better for me. I think a lot of people design systems for imaginary users that don't actually exist. I try to make stuff that works for me, because then at least it works for one person. (I assume "normal people" use some sort of GUI for this. If you are using Amarok, for example, it's a simple matter of drag-n-dropping your playlist to the icon that says "Android Phone".)

"Normal people", by which I mean myself, want to plug in their iPhone and have all of their stuff synced without ever clicking any button. Drag-n-drop is nice, but even that's more of a hassle than I care to bother with.

Re: The Android Opportunity

#60

Post by unalone »

jrockway wrote: post #44
mrshoe wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not a huge fan of the iPhone's closed nature, but I think most of what you said above could be considered arguments in favor of it. For example: yell at the hardware manufacturer instead of the software developer; yell at the app developers; if you need that functionality, go buy a 3rd party app; it's slow because of OS implementation details; it doesn't work as you'd expect it because of implementation details;…

Users don't care about why something is slow or broken (from their perspective). This cuts both ways. An iPhone user doesn't care why Apple rejects good apps from the app store. An iPhone user doesn't care why his phone can't vibrate when someone uses his name in a tweet or pings him on IRC or talks to him via GTalk. An iPhone user doesn't care why his phone can't turn its ringer off during appointments, and set it t…

Nobody thinks Apple is perfect. The people John Gruber named are all people who are huge in the Apple world but quit the iPhone in protest. John Gruber himself blasts Apple harder and more accurately than most Apple critics.

This whole "Apple is perfect" thing is a straw man that I've seen many times before. The argument isn't that Apple's perfect. The argument's that Apple is really, really, really good, and that its competitors' products aren't as polished as its own products. Android's advantages, as you highlight here, are certainly appealing to some people, but not to mass consumers, who care more about smooth than they do about extensible.

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