The latest chapter for the self-driving car: mastering city street driving • Hacker News Board

Re: The latest chapter for the self-driving car: mastering city street driving

#151

Post by tokenadult » Mon, Apr 28, 2014, 4:11 PM UTC

voicereasonish wrote: post #140

melling wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are over 30,0000 deaths in the US alone every year, which is actually near historical lows. I believe there are several million accidents and hundreds of thousands of injuries. Now the computer might not be perfect but if it's 10x better, wouldn't that be acceptable?

30,000 deaths a year in a country like the US is nothing. More people die from falling down the stairs. Should we ban stairs next?

Your statement is factually incorrect according to official statistics,[1] which I found through a very easy Google search after reading your comment. (Note that the statistic shown is for all accidental falls, not just falls on stairways, and even in the aggregate all falls cause fewer deaths than car crashes.)

[1] http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/acc-inj.htm

Re: The latest chapter for the self-driving car: mastering city street driving

#152

Post by HNaTTY » Mon, Apr 28, 2014, 4:14 PM UTC

thefreeman wrote: post #134

josefresco wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll back that as soon as a system to force bicyclists to abide by traffic laws is required.

I have a feeling that the general populace of hacker news will disagree with us, but I am with you 100%. I live in a small-ish town on the outskirts of Philadelphia that happens to be in the middle of some sort of really popular biking route. Unfortunately, we have a ton of really small streets with cars parked on both sides. I understand and appreciate that cyclists have no other place to ride then in the street, an…

I understand your frustration, but (a) there are no easy answers, and (b) as I'm sure you can imagine, bicyclists don't like riding near your car either.

I've pissed people off by following traffic laws on a bicycle as much as breaking them; I'm slow to get going from stop signs and I won't pull to the side of the road so you can squeeze me into a 2ft space of sand and crap next to the curb as you pass me.

A lot of the times that I break traffic laws, the result is me getting out of your way (running the light/not stopping at the stop sign/riding on sidewalk).

Of course yours and my experience could be very different. Traffic isn't too much of a problem here, one way or the other. The biggest problem I have to deal with is if a train comes through town and I have to wait 5 minutes for it to pas.

Re: The latest chapter for the self-driving car: mastering city street driving

#153

Post by munificent » Mon, Apr 28, 2014, 4:16 PM UTC

rthomas6 wrote: post #125

gbog wrote: post #120

In this discussion I very rarely see mentioned how heavy are cars. Since when do we need multi tons machine to move a being that is usually below 100kg from a to b? Here in northern China, many people have very small egg-cars, which are nothing more than an electric bike with a thin shell for the cold, and this is much less likely to kill someone by accident. I think we have been under a very strong brain washing so…

I agree with you, but I think I can explain some of the rationale behind wanting big cars. Part of the reason is fear. "If I have a very small egg-car and everyone else has a heavy car, I'll be the one that is killed."

> Part of the reason is fear. "If I have a very small egg-car and everyone else has a heavy car, I'll be the one that is killed."

That isn't fear, it's entirely rational behavior. This is one of those many cases where a group of people behaving individually in their self-interest results in a situation that's worse for all participants.

It would be better for everyone if we moved in aggregate to smaller, lighter cars, but no one can take that step unless we all do.

Re: The latest chapter for the self-driving car: mastering city street driving

#154

Post by melling » Mon, Apr 28, 2014, 4:16 PM UTC

tokenadult wrote: post #151

voicereasonish wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

30,000 deaths a year in a country like the US is nothing. More people die from falling down the stairs. Should we ban stairs next?

Your statement is factually incorrect according to official statistics,[1] which I found through a very easy Google search after reading your comment. (Note that the statistic shown is for all accidental falls, not just falls on stairways, and even in the aggregate all falls cause fewer deaths than car crashes.) [1] http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/acc-inj.htm

He's way off. About 1300 people die from falling down stairs every year.

http://danger.mongabay.com/injury_death.htm

So, if we reduced auto deaths to 1300 by using self-driving cars, that would be acceptable?

Re: The latest chapter for the self-driving car: mastering city street driving

#155

Post by munificent » Mon, Apr 28, 2014, 4:23 PM UTC

deanclatworthy wrote: post #33

Gustomaximus wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The sad truth of this is that whilst it's an interesting technical challenge, I really can't forsee a situation where a computer could react to all the different things that could happen when driving a car as well as a human. I agree, at least for some time. But it's not about a computer reacting to as much as a human. The question is, can a computer can do a better job overall (e.g. drnk driving or texting while d…

I personally think society is going to have a much harder time accepting death by software bug, than human error.

People will have a lot of trouble accepting that they drive worse than the self-driving car, but less that others do. After all, we all think we're better than average drivers.

What I think we'll see initially is that people won't think they need self-driving for themselves but will be all for it for others. Think parents buying a car for their teenager: they'll want that car to have every safety feature under the sun. Likewise, the younger generation helping their aging Baby Boomer parents buy a new car.

Once you've started to get some mindshare that way, I think usage will spread pretty quickly. Then I think we'll hit a cultural tipping point.

When there are a lot of self-driving cars on the road and people have seen the evidence of their safety, not driving one will clearly become a selfish act: you're choosing to endanger others because you want to be in control of your car.

In the same way that we scorn people who don't wear seatbelts (even though it only puts them at risk) and despise people who don't make their children buckle up, I expect eventually we'll feel the same way about self-driving cars. It will be considered a public safety issue where you are a bad person if you don't drive one.

Re: The latest chapter for the self-driving car: mastering city street driving

#156

Post by john_b » Mon, Apr 28, 2014, 4:24 PM UTC

pxlpshr wrote: post #12

deanclatworthy wrote: post #4

This is amazing, but if anything it's made me more wary of some of the challenges the project faces. - What if the cyclist fell off his bike in front of the car? How quickly can the computer process the real-time imagery and react compared to a human with their peripheral vision. - What if the cyclist swung from the pavement on to the road. A human driver will probably have spotted the hazard (we all train for that k…

Wow. You are giving waaaayyy to much credit to the responsiveness of humans. Roughly 1 in 4 drivers have a statistically significant amount of alcohol in their blood system. Lets also not forget distractions like cell phones, finding/selecting music, passengers, OTC and prescription drugs, et al. From my perspective, I'm the only good driver on the road and everyone else needs to go back to driving school or have the…

> "Roughly 1 in 4 drivers have a statistically significant amount of alcohol in their blood system"

You're going to need to provide a citation here.

Re: The latest chapter for the self-driving car: mastering city street driving

#157

Post by rictic » Mon, Apr 28, 2014, 4:24 PM UTC

gbog wrote: post #120

In this discussion I very rarely see mentioned how heavy are cars. Since when do we need multi tons machine to move a being that is usually below 100kg from a to b? Here in northern China, many people have very small egg-cars, which are nothing more than an electric bike with a thin shell for the cold, and this is much less likely to kill someone by accident. I think we have been under a very strong brain washing so…

Are there any studies that back up your claims that small cars would reduce the death toll? I follow the intuition, but China has over twice as many deaths per car on the road as the United States: (36 per 100k vs 15) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-re...

There are of course other factors going on than just the weight of the cars, e.g. traffic laws, enforcement, community norms around driving, ratio of scooters and motorcycles, car safety ratings, etc etc etc. but there are difficult tradeoffs here too. An egg-car will cause less damage in a low velocity impact with a pedestrian, but at highway speeds it will also do less to protect its passengers.

Re: The latest chapter for the self-driving car: mastering city street driving

#158

Post by yackob03 » Mon, Apr 28, 2014, 4:25 PM UTC

oceanplexian wrote: post #150

Zigurd wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the biking routes are that popular, one side of the street should be a bike lane separated from traffic. Until such time, cars need to be patient. Each one of those cyclists you are stuck behind is keeping a 3 ton multi-kilowatt biggest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions car off the road. Cars are huge polluters and energy consumers. Would you be equally pissed off if the residents along narrow streets had sp…

Cyclists are using roads that are subsidized and paid for by gasoline taxes and automobile registration fees. If you really want dedicated lanes and preeminence then pay your fair share. I don't think bicycling would be as attractive if cyclists paid for all the externalities of their hobby.

I can't tell if this is satire.

Re: The latest chapter for the self-driving car: mastering city street driving

#159

Post by drzaiusapelord » Mon, Apr 28, 2014, 4:26 PM UTC

peteretep wrote: post #59

arikrak wrote: post #10

It won't be able to drive around New York if it follows the rules so strictly. It will never be able to turn. They'll have to add a setting for aggression...

Will a cyclist be able to troll you by continuing to signal in front of your car, stopping it from ever overtaking?

This is my concern. If we treat cyclists as the sacred cow of the roads, they'll more or less have the root password to my car and be able to dictate where it stops and for how long.

I find cyclists to be much more disingenuous and reckless than any driver, at least here in Chicago where they'll put up next to your car on the right, on the shoulder to make a dangerous and illegal right, and pound on the side of your car with their fists to let you know they're there.

I don't see how empowering that group and its "cars suck, rules don't apply to me" attitudes can help.

Re: The latest chapter for the self-driving car: mastering city street driving

#160

Post by john_b » Mon, Apr 28, 2014, 4:28 PM UTC

gbog wrote: post #120

In this discussion I very rarely see mentioned how heavy are cars. Since when do we need multi tons machine to move a being that is usually below 100kg from a to b? Here in northern China, many people have very small egg-cars, which are nothing more than an electric bike with a thin shell for the cold, and this is much less likely to kill someone by accident. I think we have been under a very strong brain washing so…

> "Since when do we need multi tons machine to move a being that is usually below 100kg from a to b"

You don't always need them. Short intra-city drives don't require a large vehicle. But most public transportation in the US is rather poor, so people buy a car that will cover their worst case usage: driving multiple people and their luggage between cities, possibly hundreds of miles. An electric egg car isn't safe or efficient for that.

There is a car lobby in the U.S. and it does have influence, but you have ignored Occam's Razor here. People buy large cars in the U.S. simply because they are useful. Creating competing services so large, individually owned cars are less useful is what projects like this and Uber are working on.