Live data from Hacker News

Brazilians welcome genetically-modified mosquito to help fight dengue fever

pri.org

11–20 of 90 posts

Re: Brazilians welcome genetically-modified mosquito to help fight dengue fever

#12

A common fear when deploying systems like this is that we are somehow tampering with nature, and that given our inability to predict outcomes, we should therefore err to the side of caution. I typically agree with this line of thought. However, in this particular context, something to strongly consider is that Aedes aegypti isn't native to South America. As implied by its name, it's native to Africa. We (humans) brou…

As mosquito related problems are just plain hard and in this context ther is no other viable solution, I also think the usual fear is less important in this context.

But for the sake of the argument, the fact that this mosquito comes from Africa doesn't really matter so much, as the consequences of this operation could go from making it immune to this gene, make it mutate in a different/worse direction, or have the engineered mosquitoes affect the environmenr in other unknown and not measurable ways.

Re: Brazilians welcome genetically-modified mosquito to help fight dengue fever

#13
post #5

The approach may work a while. But then I am sure some mutant gene will eventually emerge in the wild-type populations that will inhibit the synthetic kill gene. That's how Nature works.

> The approach may work a while. But then I am sure some mutant gene will eventually emerge in the wild-type populations that will inhibit the synthetic kill gene.

> That's how Nature works.

More accurately, "That's how Nature works, sometimes."

The statement "...some mutant gene will eventually emerge ... that will inhibit [another gene]" describes one subset of the set of all possible causes of future genetic expression branching from this point. There is no law (that we are yet aware of) that allows us to say conclusively that a certain genetic trait will be selected for or against with any meaningful certainty. Furthermore, we have no scientific footing on which to say 'we are sure that a specific mutation will arise that will inhibit this other mutation' as decreed by Nature. In order for the claim to always be true in all arbitrary subsets of Nature, we would need to at least know: whether or not the gene will be selected against, specifically how the gene will be selected against, and nearly all nth order organism-local and population-global effects of a specific mutation or selection event. (We can play Nature in the lab and make approximations of the claim, though! Sort of.)

We can make statements like "If the oxygen content of that atmosphere or environment increases, it is possible that many anaerobic organisms will be selected against." Or, "If low hemoglobin production becomes advantageous, at some point after that, conditions x, y, and ... will likely exhibit reciprocal selective pressures."

Of course, we can also say things like, "All species are statistically likely to go extinct." (That's not very interesting.)

Essentially, we can make broad guesses about future states of genetic expression (and implied warranties and effects) under certain specific contexts. But we cannot say that a specific genetic cause and effect will occur as derived from an inherent property of Nature and a specific sub-state of the universe. As far as we know, genetics, mutation, evolution, and selection are just functions in a mostly random, iterated chaotic system that we are just beginning to comprehend.

We cannot say that 'a particular gene will be selected against, because it is inevitable that specific genes are invariably inhibited or selected against by subsequent shifts in population genetics.' In a sense, that's partially accurate. All species, and by extension, each gene and all genomes, are likely to be selected against. But not always via mutation. It's about the same as saying that species go extinct because of x; it's not certain to be true and may not yield any new information.

There is no law (that we know of) that allows us to make deterministic statements like 'X% of the genome will be inhibited because of the emergence of another mutation'.

For all we know, a rogue asteroid might hit Earth on Tuesday during rush hour in Hong Kong. Or, that particular gene may end up surviving until the closest possible moment before the heat death of the universe. On a more fundamental level, we'd need laws that allow us to predict specific future events (with interesting and meaningful degrees of certainty). We would need to be able to identify and map the exquisitely threaded chaos woven throughout Nature before we can be reasonably certain that 'a mutation will eventually arise to inhibit this other mutation.'

Re: Brazilians welcome genetically-modified mosquito to help fight dengue fever

#14
post #9
post #6

I am not afraid of GM stuff, but does anyone else think this idea is potentially really dumb? What about everything that relies on these mosquitoes as a food source? I am not an expert... but trying to just kill off an entire species sounds like a TERRIBLE idea...

The people behind this program aren't fools. They're experts who have given a lot of thought to this problem. Some basic points should alleviate your fears. First, the mosquito they're trying to eradicate is a non-native species. Second, said mosquito is the primary vector for Dengue fever, which infects hundreds of thousands and kills hundreds in Brazil every year. Even if this mosquito was native to South America,…

Scientists studied getting rid of all mosquitoes globally, and came to the conclusion it wouldn't have much of a negative impact (and a huge net positive for due ending malaria, dengue, etc.) Nothing eats exclusively mosquitoes, and those animals (birds) which do eat them could just switch to other insects, which generally are not in short supply.

http://www.nature.com/news/2010/100721/full/466432a.html

I'd do it in a second.

Re: Brazilians welcome genetically-modified mosquito to help fight dengue fever

#15
post #6

I am not afraid of GM stuff, but does anyone else think this idea is potentially really dumb? What about everything that relies on these mosquitoes as a food source? I am not an expert... but trying to just kill off an entire species sounds like a TERRIBLE idea...

And, as the article points out, killing off this one species may not even halt the spread of dengue fever: "Then there’s the possibility that as Aedes aegypti mosquitos are killed off, other species will just take their place. Phil Lounibous, an insect ecologist at the University of Florida, says getting rid of Aedes aegypti won’t necessarily solve the dengue problem. 'The so-called Asian Tiger mosquito is (also) ver…

I’m not sure, but perhaps eradicating the Aedes aegypti is enough to prevent most of the dengue transmission.

And the Aedes albopictus (Tiger mosquito) is also a non native specie in Brazil, so it’s probably a good idea to eradicate it too, perhaps using the same method. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aedes_albopictus

Re: Brazilians welcome genetically-modified mosquito to help fight dengue fever

#16
I wish the GMO developers had initially focused on products which were end-user or publicly beneficial like this, vs. just raising yields or reducing pesticide use (which are end user and societally beneficial, but can be cast by opponents as economic arguments). Without the existing anti-GMO movement, GMO would have a much easier time getting adoption in cases where it's essentially unambiguously a win (like this one).

Re: Brazilians welcome genetically-modified mosquito to help fight dengue fever

#17
post #16

I wish the GMO developers had initially focused on products which were end-user or publicly beneficial like this, vs. just raising yields or reducing pesticide use (which are end user and societally beneficial, but can be cast by opponents as economic arguments). Without the existing anti-GMO movement, GMO would have a much easier time getting adoption in cases where it's essentially unambiguously a win (like this on…

"Just raising yields" has helped save millions of poor folk in third world countries from starvation. I'm not sure that pacifying first world leftist hippies should be the top PR priority of science.

Re: Brazilians welcome genetically-modified mosquito to help fight dengue fever

#19
post #6

I am not afraid of GM stuff, but does anyone else think this idea is potentially really dumb? What about everything that relies on these mosquitoes as a food source? I am not an expert... but trying to just kill off an entire species sounds like a TERRIBLE idea...

I make an exception for the mosquito. Killing the whole species sounds like great idea.

Re: Brazilians welcome genetically-modified mosquito to help fight dengue fever

#20
post #6

I am not afraid of GM stuff, but does anyone else think this idea is potentially really dumb? What about everything that relies on these mosquitoes as a food source? I am not an expert... but trying to just kill off an entire species sounds like a TERRIBLE idea...

The aedes aegyptus is an invasive species in the Americas and should be eradicated.

There are about 3000 species of mosquitoes in the world, of which three bear deadly disease:

1. Anopheles (malaria, elephantiasis, and encephalitis)

2. Culex (encephalitis, elephantiasis, and West Nile virus)

3. Aedes (yellow fever, dengue, and encephalitis)

Asian Tiger mosquitoes are a subspecies of Aedes.

If we were to wipe out these three voracious breeds, the world would go on: flowers would continue to be pollinated, frogs and birds would continue to feed.

The risk of this type of eradication effort is not that we "upset the balance" but that we somehow create a resistant strain or mutation that is an even bigger problem, such as the Africanized honey bee fiasco. But that risk is relatively minor, since they're releasing sterile mosquitoes to end reproduction, not fertile ones designed to continue breeding.

There are a couple of hundred species that feed on blood; the rest don't. If we rid the world of all the blood sucking mosquito species, likely it would make little difference ecologically, and millions of lives would be saved and the quality of life for humans would increase. It's highly unlikely that we can do it, but we should at least try.

The naysayers have a rather weak case. I say, go for it. Nature is always in balance. Life is dynamic, not static; species come and go all the time, and always have done so.

Post reply on HN