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Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

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Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#151

Post by lsc »

arjunnarayan wrote: post #12
zyang wrote: post #4

Would you buy an eight year used Tesla for 30k? I'm a fan of Tesla and hope to be an owner some day, but I think the author is being overly optimistic here.

Well we know that Elon Musk has promised a buyback guarantee, indexed to the buyback cost of a similarly old Mercedes S class[1]. So that sets a floor on the depreciation value. Also, as btian notes below, the electric drivetrain is also much simpler than a gasoline one, so it should be in much better shape relative to non-electric cars. I'm relatively optimistic because the part that depreciates the most is the batt…

a 2006 base model Mercedes S class in 'very good' condition, with a hundred thousand miles on it, is like twelve grand, private-party value. (interestingly, a 2004 car is around six grand, both according to KBB)

I find it... unlikely that you will be able to sell a 2014 Tesla model S for $30K in 2022.

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#152

Post by jesusmichael »

D_Alex wrote: post #98
jesusmichael wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's one on Ebay for $10k.. Ebay! http://www.ebay.com/bhp/300-hp-electric-motor General Purpose 350HP motor. $25K http://www.globalindustrial.com/p/motors/ac-motors-2-phase/3... In general these motors have tight tolerances and aren't the motors in your electric shaver The entire car cost $70K...

Referring to your 350 hp example: 1. That motor is a low speed motor, as such it is massive. It weighs 3044 pounds. The Tesla motor runs at nearly 10 times the speed, and ought to be roughly a factor of 10 lighter. 2. See how the price drops by almost 10% when you buy more than 5 of these motors? Now imagine you are buying 20,000+... 3. You can bet the manufacturer of the motor (Baldor) did not get $25k for it. I ima…

Analysis estimates of the cost of the car are about $56K

http://green.autoblog.com/2014/02/26/why-teslas-35000-model-...

That $20k motor is much less advanced than what's in a Tesla... So @ $24k I think its a bargin... what is the rest of the car? Aluminum and Plastic and a couple of computers...

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#153

Post by vacri »

venturenow wrote: post #147
vacri wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The distance between Oslo and Bergen is smaller than the distance between Toronto and Montreal - which are fairly close to each other in Canadian terms. Look at your population density maps of the two - Norway has most of its people clustered around Oslo, whereas Canada has a wide spray across the southeast. The distance from Hamilton to Halifax is basically equal to the length of Norway, and it's only a quarter of t…

Whatever. Let's focus on the real facts instead of these anectodes about "Big Country" "small country". I find this stuff fully meaningless. Here's the full review with English subs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XZ5PqPeOPT0

Apparently country size and population centres are anecdotal, dismissed with a hand-wave? Besides, your 'real facts' video tells us pretty much nothing about the differences between Canadian and Norwegian driving habits, and whether the vehicle is as suitable for Canadian conditions as for Norwegian. "Suitable for Canada" is not just "the vehicle can drive in snow".

A 300km range with a long refueling time is a considerable factor for Canadians, something the video says little about. The distance between Toronto and Montreal is about 6 hours of driving, which in turn is two times the cold-weather range of the Model S. Given that you generally want to refuel before you hit rock-bottom empty, and that battery performance will degrade over time, that means two recharging stops in the Tesla, where you'll have to wait for half an hour while the car charges. That adds an hour to your journey, and means getting out of your car (in the cold) twice when you can get cars where you don't have to do that at all.

I don't know why you're apparently put off by the idea that people in big countries with good roads have better driving endurance than people in small countries. It's no different to saying that the Norwegian public have a stronger maritime tradition and are better sailors. Far more Norwegians own or operate boats per capita than any of the 'big country' places. Should I post a video of Canadian fisherman to 'prove with facts' that there's no difference between the Canadian and Norwegian public when it comes to maritime choices?

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#154

Post by jesusmichael »

leoedin wrote: post #90
jesusmichael wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My source is an industrial electric motor supplier. Google "400hp electric motor" I'm not saying tesla's require oil changes as a gas engine does... oil will last quite a long time when not contaminated by hydrocarbons. But even sealed bearings need to be repacked after so much wear. To parts can't move against on another without generating heat, which will degrade a lubricant and allow wear.

The mistake you're making is assuming that the single unit price of a low volume device like an industrial electric motor in any way reflects its component costs. High tech low volume engineering is dominated by R&D costs, one off manufacturing costs and margin. You could apply your logic (it would cost me $25,000 to buy one so therefore it costs Tesla that as well) to almost any item of consumer electronics and you'…

The "mistake" you are making is that you assume Tesla has "invented" an electric motor, so rugged that it can withstand that riggers of being inside a consumer vehicle on the open road with a novice operator, in various environmental conditions, that is a fraction of the cost of similarly powered electric motors that operate in static environments, such as a factory floor, with experienced operators and fixed maintenance schedules? Wow.. I have a bridge to sell you...

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#155

Post by ericd »

jamesaguilar wrote: post #120
ericd wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're making an assertion that runs counter to the common wisdom that electric cars will require less maintenance, so the burden of proof is on you. The fact that you can't find brushless motors online that retail for less than $10k is not convincing, because it's a new use case, a unique design, and they're not selling them outside of cars. You don't know what the pricing is. As far as materials, that amount of cop…

I never made that assertion. I'm only asking questions. "Common wisdom" does not create a burden of proof for detractors, especially if the common wisdom is never, that I can find, backed up with evidence. That is absurd. It would be like saying that the burden is on non religious people to prove that Jesus is not god because billions of people think he is.

Yeah, sorry about that, I got you mixed up with another poster.

But I do think that it's backed by evidence. There's no multi-gear transmission, and while there are moving parts, and other than the wheels/brakes, they aren't bathed in liquids that need regular changes and they aren't subjected to combustion and various other destructive forces that an ICE is constantly subjected to. There's relatively little force transmission hardware needed. The motors themselves should be relatively low-friction, and mechanically are much, much simpler than internal combustion engines (compare a breakdown of the parts of an ICE vs. electric motor, they're in completely different leagues). Air-fuel mixture control, turbochargers, and all manner of other chemical energy management systems are replaced by solid state electronics.

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#156

Post by pakile »

lttlrck wrote: post #111
pakile wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is definitely an important factor in the model. The frame of mind I tried to use is, what would I pay today, in 2014, for a luxury car of Tesla caliber that is, say, Model Year 2006? Then I took a few other things into account: - Quantitatively, given the paucity of data on Model S resales (I've looked at this and I think prices are high because supply is low), what does depreciation history on the Roadster impl…

What range did your imagined 2006 model have?

I put the info on the depreciation worksheet. I used a range of 11.5-13% per annum based on observed values for the Roadster, and to be conservative, used 13%.

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#157

Post by pakile »

D_Alex wrote: post #108

The model seems flawed. The financing/opportunity costs are not included (AFAICT...). A better way to construct the model would be to avoid trying to account for year-by-year depreciation, and only include the initial purchase cost and eventual sale cost in the cash flow. Unfortunately (you might be able to tell I'm a Tesla fan), this makes the Tesla S less attractive in comparison to other cars due to its higher up-…

Your proposal is essentially what my friend, Travis, did on the 2nd tab of the worksheet, which is a cash flow model.

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#158

Post by pakile »

electriclove wrote: post #82

Your Net values for the Ody Touring Elite don't add up. How is the Net for Year 1 for the Ody Elite $16,184? It lists Maintenance at $300, Fuel at $2727, and Depreciation at $10,500. That totals $13,527.

Good eye, electriclove - there was an error in the spreadsheet that was adding in fuel costs from another row. I updated the spreadsheet. It results in a pretty big change. I'm going to update the website.

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#159

Post by pakile »

I'm the author of this website/article, and I have an important update. I added this Epilogue to the website tonight:

--

I created this website two days ago, and during that time, have witnessed 100s of comments on Hacker News, TMC, Twitter, and more. In the middle of all that, electriclove on Hacker News found an important bug in the model: The Ody PV line was adding in fuel costs from another car. (This, IMHO, highlights how valuable the Internet is for discourse and fact checking.)

I updated the model and the result is as follows: - Tesla Model S: $40,151 - Honda Odyssey: $37,235

The end result is greater parity between the depreciation and cash flow models; and the edge goes to the Honda Odyssey by $3K, or about $375/yr over eight years. If I had more time, I might try to quantify the value of the safety edge for the Tesla (Travis calculated this to be about $500/yr), HOV lane access, or other features. In the meantime, I double-checked the formulas on the other cars - they appear to be correct. However, I continue to invite folks to continue to look at and provide feedback on the model.

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#160

Post by electriclove »

pakile wrote: post #158
electriclove wrote: post #82

Your Net values for the Ody Touring Elite don't add up. How is the Net for Year 1 for the Ody Elite $16,184? It lists Maintenance at $300, Fuel at $2727, and Depreciation at $10,500. That totals $13,527.

Good eye, electriclove - there was an error in the spreadsheet that was adding in fuel costs from another row. I updated the spreadsheet. It results in a pretty big change. I'm going to update the website.

Thanks for replying and looking into it!
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