Can some one explain NPV to me? This is the first I am hearing of this term and wikipedia does not offer an explanation that is intuitive enough. Its odd that the NPV is listed as $40K+ when the actual cost of the car is $90K+.
Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey
21–30 of 169 posts
Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey
#22I was curious about the RAV4 EV comment so some googling turned up this: http://www.caranddriver.com/features/throwing-money-at-elect...
The RAV4 EV is Toyota's California compliance car -- that is to say, in the state of CA, any auto manufacturer must sell a certain % of their sales as zero emission cars. For Toyota, that meant 2300 or so cars. They ended up putting a RAV4 body/interior on top of Tesla-sourced frame, motor and battery back: the $50k RAV4 EV.
It's been a lousy seller. Toyota only sold 26 vehicles in December, so they've got huge incentives. Currently the incentive is $16,000 IIRC. You can lease the RAV4 EV for $299 per month with $3500 due at signing.
I drive a Fiat 500e, which is a fantastic electric car ($199 lease!) but anytime I'm loading up kids and groceries I wish I had one of those cheap pseudo Teslas.
Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey
#23Would you buy an eight year used Tesla for 30k? I'm a fan of Tesla and hope to be an owner some day, but I think the author is being overly optimistic here.
Well we know that Elon Musk has promised a buyback guarantee, indexed to the buyback cost of a similarly old Mercedes S class[1]. So that sets a floor on the depreciation value. Also, as btian notes below, the electric drivetrain is also much simpler than a gasoline one, so it should be in much better shape relative to non-electric cars. I'm relatively optimistic because the part that depreciates the most is the batt…
Electric motor fail on average on par with similarly serviced gas engines.
Failure of motor bearings is usually the result of improper mechanical installation causing undesirable forces acting on the bearings, or simply poor maintenance. Bearings should be inspected regularly for lubrication and uncharacteristic noises. Their life expectancy depends on factors previously cited. Most motor vendors typically recommend bearing replacement every two years, which I think will put a cramp in the Tesla maintenance scheme
What really is off-putting is that even if the car is well maintained and even parked. It will brick as from the degradation of the batteries. At some point the owner will have to invest in a new power pack. Not true of gas motors. I have a 66' galaxie in my driveway with its original motor its never had more than an oil and spark plug change and it has a life of nearly 50 years. I'd have bought at least 3 tesla power packs in the same time frame, even if the car just sat there.
Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey
#24Earlier quoted context omitted.
Wow, why are the big automotive companies so bad at making a good looking electric vehicle? Or are we just spoiled with the looks of the Model S? From the article you linked to: "GM is reportedly losing more than $40,000 on each Volt" WHAT?
Also, "Not even Tesla has made money from building its slick Model S." Smells like funny accounting.
Apparently they're adding in R&D. http://jalopnik.com/5942352/gm-isnt-really-loosing-all-that-...
Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey
#25Earlier quoted context omitted.
Also, "Not even Tesla has made money from building its slick Model S." Smells like funny accounting.
Apparently they're adding in R&D. http://jalopnik.com/5942352/gm-isnt-really-loosing-all-that-...
I just stumbled across that same info, came to post it, and saw your reply.
Stuff like this really makes me wonder about the authors of articles like this. Are they actually so stupid that they think it's reasonable to allocate the entire R&D effort to 20,000 cars sold to date? Do they know better, but are trying to make GM look bad for some reason, and think their readers are that stupid? It's just so weird.
Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey
#26Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well we know that Elon Musk has promised a buyback guarantee, indexed to the buyback cost of a similarly old Mercedes S class[1]. So that sets a floor on the depreciation value. Also, as btian notes below, the electric drivetrain is also much simpler than a gasoline one, so it should be in much better shape relative to non-electric cars. I'm relatively optimistic because the part that depreciates the most is the batt…
Electric motor fail on average on par with similarly serviced gas engines. Failure of motor bearings is usually the result of improper mechanical installation causing undesirable forces acting on the bearings, or simply poor maintenance. Bearings should be inspected regularly for lubrication and uncharacteristic noises. Their life expectancy depends on factors previously cited. Most motor vendors typically recommend…
How much does a new electric motor for a Tesla cost versus a new gas motor for a similar car? I'd guess it would be significantly cheaper, but I certainly could be wrong. I don't know that much about cars.
Downvoted an honest question stated in a reasonable manner? Come on.
Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey
#27His use case for the Odyssey must be atypical from what I've seen, that is, it's used mostly for short local trips. What most people I know use their minivans for is that, plus family road trips. Not really an option with the Tesla.
Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey
#28Would you buy an eight year used Tesla for 30k? I'm a fan of Tesla and hope to be an owner some day, but I think the author is being overly optimistic here.
Tesla has promised the ability to swap out battery packs in the future. So, after 8 years the Model S should hold very good resale value because at that time you could probably swap in a 120+kwh battery (that goes 400+ miles). 30k residual value after 8 years on a well-options S 85kwh sounds about right IMO.
Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey
#29Would you buy an eight year used Tesla for 30k? I'm a fan of Tesla and hope to be an owner some day, but I think the author is being overly optimistic here.
Yes... I agree, there is a great deal of over estimation longevity of the drive systems and maintenance of the Tesla. Electric motors are much less serviceable than gas engines at this point. There are still a lot of moving parts. I think a tesla will lose value much faster than this person thinks as battery technology improves and the life of the existing battery pack declines.
Model S battery packs can be upgraded in a few minutes at robotic service stations...
Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey
#30Can some one explain NPV to me? This is the first I am hearing of this term and wikipedia does not offer an explanation that is intuitive enough. Its odd that the NPV is listed as $40K+ when the actual cost of the car is $90K+.
Net present value is a way of measuring future flows of money and comparing them to each other. For instance, which is worth more:
- Getting $100 now
- Getting $200 3 years from now
The answer is, "it depends on your assumptions about interest rates".
In the blog poster's spreadsheet, the "net" line is the cost of owning that car in that year in that year's dollars. The PV is the cost of owning that car in that year in THIS year's dollars (a figure obviously depending on assumptions about interest rates). The NPV line is the cost of owning that car for 8 years in this year's dollars.