41–50 of 84 posts
Well, duh. At 63 games this has an expected value of $1e-10. https://www.google.com/search?q=1000000000%2F2%5E63
Well, duh. At 63 games this has an expected value of $1e-10. https://www.google.com/search?q=1000000000%2F2%5E63
Earlier quoted context omitted.
If these four teams are equally competent. Then you have 50% chance to choose each of three correct (2 final four games + 1 title games correctly). So the chance to win it all is (1/2)^3 = 0.125. Your expected return is $1B * 55% * 0.125 = $68.75M. Or if you prefer a single payout, $300M * 0.125 = $37.5M. So considering inflation for $68.75M is over 40 years, maybe your expected return is between 37.5M to 50M (idk ab…
I'd argue that your chance of winning the bracket (or, at least, a valuation of it) is much higher than that given your ability to predict all of the matches prior. (I don't think this would qualify as gambler's fallacy, though I'm welcome to counterarguments.)
I believe the chance to win given you win all but three are higher than 12.5%. But MUCH higher? I am not quite sure. There are too many games this year can go either way, and predicting these games right is more on luck than technique analysis. Though winning all these previous prediction did gave you the credit in your expertise, but I am not quite sure about MUCH higher statement.
Like I have said "Of course the reality is how much you would sell it very much depend on your conviction of how likely your guesses on final 3 games may be correct.". As tournaments goes on, your feeling about we will win it all will change. Say Louisville will all the team 100-0 in previous game, yet you predicted them to lose at final four, you are more likely to sell your stake at a cheaper price than not.
This stunt actually makes me angry. Not a good PR move imo. "I have enough money that I can risk giving up a billion $. And I may just give it to you if you can beat the odds that's harder than getting hit by lighting multiples times in 1 year." How about offering pot of 100 million to top (aka sweep) 16 instead... But never mind, it's their money...
This does seem silly. According to the article, the odds of picking the correct bracket are less than 1 in 128 billion, so there is practically zero risk.
>>> .8 ** 63
7.846377169233378e-07
>>> .9 ** 63
0.0013100205086376223
There is still one bracket left as of 11:27p EDT. https://tournament.fantasysports.yahoo.com/quickenloansbrack...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
There's usually perfect brackets a couple rounds in. This year was rough. While the first round has half the games, they're usually a lot more predictable than later rounds. This is probably my worst first round ever, anecdotally.
Not true - in ESPN leagues, only 1 bracket the past 7 years made it past the first weekend perfect.
With weighted results, I wonder what the odds of this set of outcomes happening even was (note, some of the "upsets" by seed weren't really, like the CU vs Pitt game where Pitt ran them over).