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It Is Time For Basic Income

hawkins.ventures

241–250 of 761 posts

Re: It Is Time For Basic Income

#241
post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The problem is money = power and society is hell bent on gaining power. A major source of trouble now is that money is tightly coupled with politics. It boggles the mind how it's not universally understood that politics should be entirely de-coupled from private money. All of politics should run 100% (including elections) on a public fund. Unless this is done, very few things of true substance will be fixed. > The…

100% on a public fund? So I should be paying for the elections of Republicans and Democrats even though they are private parties that may for no reason exclude me?

Or.... you could still run, but not as a Republican or a Democrat?

Re: It Is Time For Basic Income

#242
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To make things simple let's assume a flat tax of 20% pays a 10k per year basic income. Someone making 0k ends up with .8 * 0k + 10k = 10k. Someone making 10k ends up with .8 * 10k + 10k = 18k. Someone making 50k ends up with .8 * 50k + 10k = 50k. Someone making 100k ends up with .8 * 100k + 10k = 90k. Someone making 200k ends up with .8 * 200k + 10k = 170k. Thus the only people that get the full amount are those who…

US Personal income is about $13tn, so a 20% flat tax would currently provide about $8500/yr basic income. And that, of course, is on top of our current government spending. Also I'm not sure what you'd do w/ payroll taxes. You're just grossly understating what tax rates would have to be to accommodate this. You think there will be economies of scale that SS today doesn't already achieve that could somehow offset this…

First off children don't get the full amount only 1/2 which reduces costs by ~13%. $8500 / (1-.13) = 9770 / year which is rather close to 10k/year. A single person living on 10k after taxes is about the same as a single mother living on 15k hard but hardly impossible. If you add 10k per kid it creates a rather strong incentive to have a few kids.

Also, the assumption is you cut a lot of government spending not just social security. So unemployment insurance, HUD, food stamps, etc. While writing a SS check has vary low overhead handling disability is a huge part of the SS administration that goes away. And those programs are not all paid for by personal income so assuming all the other taxes stay the same you free up a fair amount of spending for the basic income.

Even just eliminating social security reduces taxes by 12.5%. And, presumably that $3,900 exemption for each qualifying child goes away along with the home mortgage tax deduction as do a lot of other deductions which can lower taxes for the rich who would otherwise be getting most of the additional tax burden. I would also suggest removing the deduction for charitable giving. (The only difference between deductions and spending is accounting the math is identical.)

PS: Actually finding the correct tax rate takes quite a bit of economic modeling 20% is reasonable ballpark, but you need to figure out what's cut to get a good idea of how that actually impacts people.

Re: It Is Time For Basic Income

#243
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> However, because no one _needs_ a job to live (because they can just live on the basic income) Well, someone needs a job for the system to work, since it's presumably funded by taxation. At least one person (more realistically, a large portion of the population) still needs to be creating wealth.

>someone needs a job I don't know that we necessarily need to have jobs. We could fund it by taxation of revenue and wages, rather than just wages. A company who fires all it's employees, and uses only robots, would see a huge surge in profit from reduced overhead. That profit could be taxed at something like 60%. The owner(s) of the business still see windfall from the cost savings of laying everyone off, and the ba…

so..redistribution of income? This isn't anything new. I find it interesting that so many people on a forum about technology and business would suggest punishing businesses for using technology to make their business so efficient.

When the music and movie industry wanted more protection for their IP, many people here made comments about the horse and buggy/automobile and they just needed to "change with the times".

Why should employment be any different? If your job is being taken by a robot..maybe you should think about learning another skill.

Re: It Is Time For Basic Income

#244

If anything like basic income happens expect immigration to be halted and birthright citizenship grants to be ended. The value and meaning of citizenship will rapidly change and tolerance for outsiders taking a slice of the pie will rapidly plunge. I think there will be a lot of ramifications like this that most people probably aren't considering.

May be not, other countries may move in that direction. Furthermore, they may even move faster. For example, Mexico already passed a universal income law for people over 65.

Re: It Is Time For Basic Income

#245
post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But if charity were reliable enough to rely on for livelihood wouldn't it make sense to remove any form of welfare or basic income?

I think the reliability of charity in this case would increase as the number of people who need it decrease. I don't think we can rely on charity to solve everyone's financial woes, else said woes would already be solved. But when the percentage of people in need of charity grows smaller, the impact of the same pool of charity increases for those left in need.

But isn't the point of BI that everyone has enough for their basic needs? It would seem unfair at that point to tell some people try and get charity funding (which might dry up at any point).

Re: It Is Time For Basic Income

#246

I haven't read much on BI, so I'm sure this has already been answered already, but: how do the numbers add up? The US poverty line for a single person is $11k. For simplicity, let's say BI gives everyone in the US $10k per year. Times 313.9 million, that's $3.1 trillion per year. The US government spent, overall, $3.45 trillion in 2013. How would we be able to afford basic income?

Because income taxes would go up as well. The poor would benefit but the rich might actually end up with a net loss. A basic income is nothing more than a redistribution of wealth, and in theory, might not cost anything more.

Re: It Is Time For Basic Income

#247
post #164

I think if you could see close-up how these systems work now, you'd be convinced that it's completely not worth the cost in practice to try and figure out who "deserves" each of the many, many special benefits/allowances/exemptions available (plus it's incredibly difficult for potential recipients to figure out what they're eligible for, plus it imposes those costs on the people who aren't eligible, but end up having…

> So since this is HN... is there any way to get to an MVP without having a sovereign state to experiment with? Or is this solely in the realm of public policy? Scale it down? Seems pretty obvious to me. If you can make it happen in one city, you have a foothold.

> Scale it down? Seems pretty obvious to me. If you can make it happen in one city, you have a foothold.

It doesn't work scaled down, though. (I'd argue that it's a bug in existing policy voting and adoption frameworks that it can be enacted when scaled up, but that's a different argument.)

You can't sensibly enact a policy like this if it draws its funds from the taxes of people who aren't within the city in question (and it would be horribly unjust if you could). So you're talking about paying for a basic income within a city by adding a substantial tax to the residents of that city. That would result in a substantial motivation for any mobile business or person to relocate (and higher-income people are often more mobile), and for any new business to set up shop elsewhere.

Cities are small enough that it's entirely possible to relocate if your local government becomes too obtrusive. A policy like this only "works" if you have a scale large enough that the majority of people opposed to the policy are nonetheless forced into it by virtue of finding it less awful than moving.

The burden of moving to a new country is high enough to deter it for all but the most egregious issues; the degree of bad policy required to motivate leaving a country is far higher than the degree of bad policy required to motivate leaving a city or even a state. As a result, the average person will likely find themselves far less aligned with the policies of their country than their city or state.

Re: It Is Time For Basic Income

#248

So let's assume this was implemented. Some citizens, with their guaranteed basic income, will spend it wisely to cover their needs...as envisioned by proponents of this approach. Others, however, will waste their income and again find themselves short of what is necessary to cover their needs. What then? Simply increase the amount of basic income awarded, and hope that by throwing more money at the symptoms of povert…

Actually the basic income creates new business models. If you can't take care of yourself you can sign up with a company that takes your basic income and provides 3 hots, a cot and an allowance. Can't image it will be the nicest accomidations but it will be there if you need it...

As a side note, businesses, in general, could significantly reduce their labor costs if a BI was in place.

Re: It Is Time For Basic Income

#249
Every time a post like this comes up it gets hundreds of people supporting the idea. The problem is that most of the readers of HN have been in the Upper Middle Class or higher their entire lives. Friends, family, co-workers, all UMC, and so you don't know, you've never experienced, the pathologies typical of poorer people. Or, you pretend those pathologies can be solved with a new variation on welfare.

Giving out checks is going to create millions of people who do nothing but 1) Watch television and eat potato chips or 2) Spend the checks on drugs/alcohol, and steal whatever they need until the first of the next month. Worse, many of those people are the same who used to clean your toilets and take out your garbage. Not mine--yours.

That's just reality. I'm guessing that the main reason why conservatives like Charles Murray support basic income is because it focuses the menagerie of handouts into one policy, which will allow for easier metrics into how increases are harmful.

Re: It Is Time For Basic Income

#250
post #164

I think if you could see close-up how these systems work now, you'd be convinced that it's completely not worth the cost in practice to try and figure out who "deserves" each of the many, many special benefits/allowances/exemptions available (plus it's incredibly difficult for potential recipients to figure out what they're eligible for, plus it imposes those costs on the people who aren't eligible, but end up having…

Something like this could work:

http://urbanlegends.about.com/library/blmsaol.htm

Actually, it couldn't, except maybe for a small population. The trick is convincing a local government with major poverty issues to take a risk it probably doesn't think it can afford.

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