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Industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?

theguardian.com

21–30 of 69 posts

Re: Industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?

#21
post #16

This is obviously sensationalist bullshit. The Guardian writer, Nafeez Ahmed, has produced a string of highly exaggerated articles in the past[1]. Very surprised that the Guardian publishes this crap but it seems that highly politicized subjects like climate change and income inequality have different standards. [1] http://www.theguardian.com/profile/nafeez-ahmed

While I am not saying this is some universal truth or anything like that, but I have found these kind of articles to be wildly popular amongst cynical students at my college.

There is something about the idea of "The world is fucked, and I will be here to watch it burn!" that seems to really click with these people.

Re: Industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?

#22
Correct me if I'm wrong, but are we not now, reading this, sitting in a civilization with greater capacity for resource production and allocation, longer average lives, and better systems of healthcare than all of the previous cultures this study brings up?

Are we not also aware that any mathematical model of consumption for any growing civilization at any period -- easily predicts resources running out and impending catastrophe? Do we not note that priests and others have been predicting the end of mankind for as far back as we have written history? Can we not observe that all cellular-based automata modeling systems default to runaway conditions? Is any of this some kind of mystery?

There may be real danger on the horizon -- creating some kind of human super-organism on the planet creates a single point of failure, and that's extremely bad -- but I remain convinced that when the world does end, there's going to be a lot of disappointed people out there that it did not end the way they thought it would.

"Scientists" are folks who tell us the likelihood of causality. You do A, B is likely to happen. They do this through falsifiable theories and reproducible science. They do not spend time and money with broad speculations about the ills of human nature, and how those ills will conspire bring about our punishment. I don't know what that is, sounds like religion to me, but it sure ain't science.

Re: Industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?

#23
The Club of Rome [1] did the same thing in 1972 with its famous study »The Limits to Growth« [2] and came to similar conclusions. An updated version »Beyond the Limit« [3] has been published after 20 years in 1993. The model they developed is called World3 [4].

After 30 years they validated their model and published »Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update« in 2004. The actual development of our world over this 30 years period is frighteningly close to one of their scenarios without happy end.

It is unfortunately a real possibility that we are already doomed, i.e. have crossed the point of no return even assuming perfect future developments, and are just not aware of our approaching downfall.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Club_of_Rome

[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth

[3] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beyond_the_Limits

[4] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World3

Re: Industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?

#24
World3 is a famous simulation done in the 70s of our world/civilization that broadly predicts how our interaction with the environment will lead to a breakdown (decrease) of population.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World3

You can run this world simulation here:

http://insightmaker.com/insight/1954

(Click on the green run simulation on the upper left.)

The lady who is responsible for this is called Donella Meadows, she is a famous systems thinker, I read one of her books titled 'Thinking in Systems'. It's about how to think about such systems (without actually modelling them).

http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Systems-Donella-H-Meadows/dp/...

Re: Industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?

#25

Guy McPherson has a disturbingly well sourced and pessimistic summary of how climate change will affect humanity in the next few decades. In his view it's too late to stop it and we're finished: http://guymcpherson.com/2013/01/climate-change-summary-and-u...

An interesting thought experiment I like to entertain is the case in which climate change is mitigated by the same kind of factors that cause and exacerbate it. It's not outrageous to imagine 21st century materials technology making it profitable to extract carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, or low-power, ubiquitous computing/surveillance/logistics technology that can extract heat energy from the atmosphere and convert it to usable work.

Re: Industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?

#26
post #14

"and increasingly unequal wealth distribution". I don't know about this. If anything we have more wealth available to commoners today compared to centuries ago. Just look at how things were a 1000 or 2000 years ago, most everyone was poor, with the wealth held by kings a lords.

Just because everyone has more wealth(very disputable especially regionally in certain areas) doesn't mean the distribution is increasing at the same rate for all classes of society.

Re: Industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?

#28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is capitalism compatible with human survival? You can't have infinite growth on a planet with finite resources. Maybe that's why people are trying to commercialize space/exploration?

They're trying, but a cursory evaluation shows it's a lost cause. Much easier to achieve a sustainable civilization (zero growth), as hard as that is.

What has a higher probability (honestly):

- getting an increasing majority of the population of people who for the most part of their entire lives are taught/live/believe by certain ideals (i.e. are not doing anything different now), to the benefit of the few, to convince themselves of another way.

- convincing the few who benefit now who have the means to try something new (or old) (i.e. who are doing something now)?

Meta: I wonder if people thought exploration of the globe was a lost cause a millennia ago?

Re: Industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?

#29
The fact that inequal distribution of wealth is still a reality we accept in our time is really mind-boggling. Even more so given the fact that it's 1 of the main reasons for a likely future collapse of our civilization. (We still don't use the full potential of our collective intelligence; we know exactly what's wrong, but behave like hypnotized rabbits, instead of starting to coordinate for a collaborative culture/future.)

Re: Industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?

#30
post #21
post #16

This is obviously sensationalist bullshit. The Guardian writer, Nafeez Ahmed, has produced a string of highly exaggerated articles in the past[1]. Very surprised that the Guardian publishes this crap but it seems that highly politicized subjects like climate change and income inequality have different standards. [1] http://www.theguardian.com/profile/nafeez-ahmed

While I am not saying this is some universal truth or anything like that, but I have found these kind of articles to be wildly popular amongst cynical students at my college. There is something about the idea of "The world is fucked, and I will be here to watch it burn!" that seems to really click with these people.

They seem to do well on HN too...
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