You've been added to the FBI's Ten Most Wanted List – how long will you survive?
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Re: You've been added to the FBI's Ten Most Wanted List – how long will you survive?
#2For those who speak Python there is an excellent survival analysis package called Lifelines -https://github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/lifelines
Written by the same guy who brought you Bayesian Methods for Hackers - https://github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programmin...
And if you are curious where to test your newly acquired knowledge try a Kaggle competition called "Predict malfunctional components of ASUS notebooks" which is a great example of survival analysis usage. http://www.kaggle.com/c/pakdd-cup-2014
Re: You've been added to the FBI's Ten Most Wanted List – how long will you survive?
#3While element of luck is involved, I hardly think getting caught is random. I think a lot depends on preparations and profile you keep.
Re: You've been added to the FBI's Ten Most Wanted List – how long will you survive?
#4For those who speak Python there is an excellent survival analysis package called Lifelines - https://github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/lifelines Written by the same guy who brought you Bayesian Methods for Hackers - https://github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programmin... And if you are curious where to test your newly acquired knowledge try a Kaggle competition called "Predict malfunctional components of ASUS note…
Yes! I'm a huge fan of Cam's work. I bit the bullet and put down R to work through the Bayesian Methods book with Python. Learning the language and working through the book has been a lot of fun.
Re: You've been added to the FBI's Ten Most Wanted List – how long will you survive?
#5While element of luck is involved, I hardly think getting caught is random. I think a lot depends on preparations and profile you keep.
All of these secondary factors (preparations, etc.) can themselves be regarded as "random" or at least unknowable in their extent and their effects. Much like lifetimes of individuals -- having some clear predictability on an individual basis, but in aggregate, well-modeled as random variables.
To be a bit more abstract, just because something is "random" does not mean it cannot be characterized with a distribution, expected life, etc.
The philosophical/mathematical effort at quantifying randomness has been called "The Taming of Chance".
Re: You've been added to the FBI's Ten Most Wanted List – how long will you survive?
#6While element of luck is involved, I hardly think getting caught is random. I think a lot depends on preparations and profile you keep.
If it was as simple as "preparation" and "profile," then how do any of them get caught? You'd think those protections would be relatively common knowledge, at least among criminals.
Re: You've been added to the FBI's Ten Most Wanted List – how long will you survive?
#7> df$date_put_on_list It's a cool blog post but that code isn't near readable to me. Long lines in a tiny rectangle hidden behind horizontal scroll don't make it any easier. It looks like a box of arbitrary characters stuffed into as little space as possible.
Although the raw link is a little easier on the eyes:
https://gist.githubusercontent.com/statwonk/9448932/raw/84b9...
Whoever named that method POSIXct needs to like leave the job of naming things to other people maybe.
Re: You've been added to the FBI's Ten Most Wanted List – how long will you survive?
#8While element of luck is involved, I hardly think getting caught is random. I think a lot depends on preparations and profile you keep.
If it was as simple as "preparation" and "profile," then how do any of them get caught? You'd think those protections would be relatively common knowledge, at least among criminals.
I think it's reasonable to say the degree of preparation and profile management varies significantly between someone who stole a car and someone who masterminds attacks on tall buildings in New York.
Preparation and profile are not "simple," nor are they black and white, as what those things actually mean is massively different from one situation to the next, criminal dealings or not. Characterizing them as something that either does or doesn't happen and does or doesn't entirely cancel the possibility of capture is not useful.
Re: You've been added to the FBI's Ten Most Wanted List – how long will you survive?
#9While element of luck is involved, I hardly think getting caught is random. I think a lot depends on preparations and profile you keep.
All of these secondary factors (preparations, etc.) can themselves be regarded as "random" or at least unknowable in their extent and their effects. Much like lifetimes of individuals -- having some clear predictability on an individual basis, but in aggregate, well-modeled as random variables. To be a bit more abstract, just because something is "random" does not mean it cannot be characterized with a distribution,…
The effectiveness of preparation is not random. Charting the effectiveness of such efforts, were it possible to do so, might yield a random distribution; this does not, however, imply that "all of these secondary factors" can or should be "regarded as random" for anything more than a high-level treatment that becomes worthless in the (individual) context where it actually matters.
Re: You've been added to the FBI's Ten Most Wanted List – how long will you survive?
#10Earlier quoted context omitted.
If it was as simple as "preparation" and "profile," then how do any of them get caught? You'd think those protections would be relatively common knowledge, at least among criminals.
I think it's reasonable to say the degree of preparation and profile management varies significantly between someone who stole a car and someone who masterminds attacks on tall buildings in New York. Preparation and profile are not "simple," nor are they black and white, as what those things actually mean is massively different from one situation to the next, criminal dealings or not. Characterizing them as something…
Someone who stole a car doesn't make the FBI top 10.