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Missing Airplane Flew On for Hours

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21–30 of 215 posts

Re: Missing Airplane Flew On for Hours

#21
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does the data include power information? At least you could get some sort of bound on the distance it is likely to have travelled.

Good thinking; yes, fuel flow and power settings are included: http://www.rolls-royce.com/about/technology/systems_tech/mon...

That seems to indicate that the data are transmitted via ACARS. Is there another back-channel, if ACARS were unavailable for some reason?

Re: Missing Airplane Flew On for Hours

#22

So we have a plane that flew to another destination without communication and several people with bogus passports on board. Familymembers have reported cellphones that kept 'rining' instead of going directly to voicemail (as they would have if the plane was at rhe bottom of the ocean). Hijacking looks to me the only reasonable explenation.

It's possible in some cases for phones to "ring" even if they're off/disconnected, as the tone is generated by the network, not the device itself.

In my experience the network won't ring if it hasn't seen the device in a certain time period. "Straight to voicemail" for that. I'm no expert though, maybe rings are still possible.

But if the network is seeing these phones, it seems to me it'd be pretty simple locate these people by just querying the provider for the tower location. This hasn't happened, so the only conclusion is all the phones were destroyed, disabled, or out of range.

Re: Missing Airplane Flew On for Hours

#23

Interesting hypothesis that would square with this: http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2014/03/a-hypoth...

This is an interesting article. One of the comments also gives another plausible solution. Pasting it here for convenience:

"There are a number of troubles with that theory Charles, one of which is that the plane should have followed its intended course and stayed on radar by passive reflection, but it is certainly also one of my favourite theories right now.

The lack of debris near where it disappeared from the radar opens the door to more "interesting" theories, such as kidnapping or theft.

First of all, identifying planes by transponder code is not hard ID.

It would be perfectly possible for co-conspirator plane to fly transponder-less up to the target plane, take over the transponder code, and fly decoy on the official route, while the MH370 goes elsewhere.

That means that the point of "last contact" doesn't tell us anything but the existence of an electronic device acting like a transponder at that time and place.

Turning the transponder off and tailing another transpondered plane very closely is another way to disappear from ATC without plastering the surface with debris and then you are also more or less free to go wherever you want, until somebody visually spots two planes very close.

The decoy plane does not need to be the same size, so the probability of such visual detection would be low.

Therefore, suspecting foul play, we don't have any trustworthy information about the planes whereabouts after the last visual sighting of the plane.

It would be interesting to know if there were any high-value targets on that plane, amongst the passengers or in the cargo.

If the cargo was the interesting bit, killing off all the passengers by dropping pressure and oxygen is trivial.

One interesting nugget is the rumour that "passengers phones are still ringing".

That's sufficiently implausible that nobody would take it seriously and actually follow the SS7 data.

But if true, it would be explained by the plane sitting somewhere at the edge of a jungle, for instance on the remains of an old WW2 strip, passengers dead, and cargo gone."

Re: Missing Airplane Flew On for Hours

#24

Interesting hypothesis that would square with this: http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2014/03/a-hypoth...

> * On February 22nd, aircraft 9M-MRO underwent maintenance. During this, or during a previous maintenance cycle, an empty oxygen bottle was installed by mistake for a full one, or a valve was jammed, or some other undetected fault rendered the flight deck crew's emergency oxygen supply inoperable.

That sounds extremely unlikely. Standard procedures for equipment checks in plane are usually done at 9 sigma standards, i.e. they involved numerous checks by different people. We're not talking about an amateur doing maintenance at home during the weekend. And I doubt there would be a single oxygen source in the cockpit since airplanes are usually built with multiple redundancies.

I don't really buy that one. Plus the plane did not make it to any military radar either - so where did it fly for 5 hours?

Re: Missing Airplane Flew On for Hours

#25

Interesting hypothesis that would square with this: http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2014/03/a-hypoth...

Damn that is an interesting theory. I think there should be a way of getting into the cockpit if it can be determined that the pilot and copilot are incapacitated. That would be a miserable way to go. :P

Re: Missing Airplane Flew On for Hours

#27
post #24

Interesting hypothesis that would square with this: http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2014/03/a-hypoth...

> * On February 22nd, aircraft 9M-MRO underwent maintenance. During this, or during a previous maintenance cycle, an empty oxygen bottle was installed by mistake for a full one, or a valve was jammed, or some other undetected fault rendered the flight deck crew's emergency oxygen supply inoperable. That sounds extremely unlikely. Standard procedures for equipment checks in plane are usually done at 9 sigma standards,…

He does reference the case of Helios Airways Flight 522[0], where a similar situation happened as a result of human error (leaving the pressurisation system set to manual).

0. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helios_Airways_Flight_522

Re: Missing Airplane Flew On for Hours

#28
post #14

So we have a plane that flew to another destination without communication and several people with bogus passports on board. Familymembers have reported cellphones that kept 'rining' instead of going directly to voicemail (as they would have if the plane was at rhe bottom of the ocean). Hijacking looks to me the only reasonable explenation.

Annnd, why aren't we reading about cell logs of every IMSI of every passenger on board. Isn't this baby stuff? Continually ringing doesn't mean the phone is still on a network.

Because the "cell" is the microcell generated by the plane's internal GSM/sat uplink... which has no GPS attached and cannot really be traced.

Re: Missing Airplane Flew On for Hours

#29

So we have a plane that flew to another destination without communication and several people with bogus passports on board. Familymembers have reported cellphones that kept 'rining' instead of going directly to voicemail (as they would have if the plane was at rhe bottom of the ocean). Hijacking looks to me the only reasonable explenation.

It's possible in some cases for phones to "ring" even if they're off/disconnected, as the tone is generated by the network, not the device itself.

I don't know how networks work in your country or where this accident occured, but in Japan when your phone is off, and you try to call it, it does not ring and indeed goes to voicemail directly.

Re: Missing Airplane Flew On for Hours

#30
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good thinking; yes, fuel flow and power settings are included: http://www.rolls-royce.com/about/technology/systems_tech/mon...

That seems to indicate that the data are transmitted via ACARS. Is there another back-channel, if ACARS were unavailable for some reason?

If they received the data that means the engines managed to communicate somehow. So that tells you the length of time the transmission unit was powered up. Also, using differential signal strength between successive communications one can generate an approximate trajectory (x km from satellite at y time) etc etc. This would surely narrow down the possible locations.
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