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Student Loans Are A Drag On The Economy

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Re: Student Loans Are A Drag On The Economy

#91
post #81

Why are student loans so high, the market so ridden with defaults, and the price of education so high? I think (well, I'm a little more certain than that) the answer is basic economics. Here's my take: You (America) have a government that offers discount loans - i.e. loans with poor prospects/low interests rates - in the hope of driving a higher allocation of capital to education than would occur in a pure private le…

> government that offers discount loans - i.e. loans with poor prospects/low interests rates - so that there is a higher allocation of capital to education than would occur in a pure private lending market

This is not nearly the full extent of the problem, just look at the housing market. Through credit, banks have been able to completely erode the concept of ownership and turn it into just another form of renting (except for those rare few with fuck-you money that we all dream of being)

1. Every loan is subsidized by virtue of any bank being able to effectively conjure money out of thin air. Giving out a loans would normally affect the backing of the depositor's accounts, but they have absolutely no concern due to FDIC insurance. So the only checks on how much a bank will loan out are the reserve requirement, and how accurately their own accounting model reflects what could go wrong (eg a massive drop in housing prices making all of that on-paper "collateral" worth less).

2. Overly strong enforcement of collateral, through both modern tracking technologies and a government that facilitates efficient repossession of property as if the debtor does not actually own it.

3. AFAIK student loan debt is not even discharageable in bankruptcy. (It is amazingly automatically discharged at time of death, but presumably private creditors are paid by the government when this happens, yet another subsidy).

4. The ridiculous overemphasis on credit scores, and how people are indoctrinated to constantly worry about them, and believe they will fail at life if they do not suck up to the rating companies.

5. People have been led to believe that failing to pay back a (good-faith-taken) loan is immoral, and that debts are absolute. Bankruptcy has been made to seem like a game-over death-equivalent where you've fallen off the path of a respectable life.

The systematic overemphasis on credit over assets has made it so that most people have a high monthly burn rate. Of course they take on more debt on non-capital expenses like new cars and further the cycle - they're no longer in control of their life, so they might as well enjoy what they can. Which then makes it so they always have to be working a full time job (and squirreling away a tiny amount with the idea of maybe not having to work when they're old and achy).

But this is happening concurrently with massive ongoing efficiency gains, so many of these jobs actually no longer need to be done! Due to a wider advertising/logistics reach, there are fewer market winners, thus less competition so companies have more surplus resources to employ these unnecessary people, who just end up being a detriment to the functioning of the organization. So with the current trends, we've got a future where robots are producing everything, but all the humans are essentially doing busywork (while completely stressed out as they believe they're not) just for access to the basic necessities of life.

Re: Student Loans Are A Drag On The Economy

#92
post #81

Why are student loans so high, the market so ridden with defaults, and the price of education so high? I think (well, I'm a little more certain than that) the answer is basic economics. Here's my take: You (America) have a government that offers discount loans - i.e. loans with poor prospects/low interests rates - in the hope of driving a higher allocation of capital to education than would occur in a pure private le…

> the government takes risks with the taxpayers' money that private lendors would not take with their own > Because as a country, you shoulder the cost - through your government's wasteful allocation of capital. The US Government made $41.3 billion in profit on student loans last year. http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/02/10/federal...

If anyone in the private sector used the type of accounting that the government uses for loans, people would be lead away in handcuffs. Here's the somewhat understated footnote in the CBO report that underlies that news article.

"CBO’s calculations of subsidy costs for student loans follow the procedures specified in the Federal Credit Reform Act of 1990 (FCRA). Under FCRA, the discounted present value of expected income from federal student loans made during the 2014–2024 period is projected to exceed the discounted present value of the government’s costs. (Present value is a single number that expresses a flow of current and future income or payments in terms of an equivalent lump sum received or paid today; the present value depends on the rate of interest—known as the discount rate—that is used to translate future cash flows into current dollars.) Credit programs that produce net income rather than net outlays are said to have “negative subsidy rates,” which result in negative outlays. The original subsidy calculation for a set of loans or loan guarantees may be increased or decreased by a “credit subsidy reestimate” in subsequent years, on the basis of updated valuations of the present-value costs of the cash flows associated with the outstanding loans and loan guarantees.

FCRA accounting, however, does not consider some costs borne by the government. In particular, it omits the risk taxpayers face because federal receipts from interest and principal payments on student loans tend to be low when economic and financial conditions are poor and resources therefore are more valuable.

Fair-value accounting methods account for such risk and, as a result, the program’s savings are less (or its costs are greater) under fair-value accounting than they are under FCRA’s rules."

On page 63 of: http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/...

See also: http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/... (Fair Value Accounting for for Federal Credit Programs) and http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/... (Fair-Value Estimates of the Cost of Federal Credit Programs in 2013)

Re: Student Loans Are A Drag On The Economy

#93
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow, talk about moving the goalposts.

If you think that, I think you didn't read both of my posts carefully enough. First I argued that the government was making bad loans. The respondent replied that they were making profit (implying they were good loans.) Then I noted that that doesn't necessarily mean the government made the most profit possible with the loans - I didn't say that was definite, just possible. And then I showed how political pressure is…

That is not at all what drove what happened in 2007-2008. I suggest you read The Big Short by Michael Lewis.

Re: Student Loans Are A Drag On The Economy

#95
post #77

The root of this problem is that the liberals have been paddling relatives good sounding notions such as "everyone needs to go to college" thing and the subsequent government moves to ensure that every tom dick and harry can go to college. This was about to happen.

What's your alternative? We always hear this type of complaint from people who take issue with sending masses to college that a information economy requires, but it seems like they never explain their alternative vision for society.

Re: Student Loans Are A Drag On The Economy

#96
post #81

Why are student loans so high, the market so ridden with defaults, and the price of education so high? I think (well, I'm a little more certain than that) the answer is basic economics. Here's my take: You (America) have a government that offers discount loans - i.e. loans with poor prospects/low interests rates - in the hope of driving a higher allocation of capital to education than would occur in a pure private le…

the US government issues student loans? really?

EDIT - sorry, just checked it out, and yes it does. incredible :D this is it's way of supporting college education, by making money off of it?

Re: Student Loans Are A Drag On The Economy

#97
post #95
post #77

The root of this problem is that the liberals have been paddling relatives good sounding notions such as "everyone needs to go to college" thing and the subsequent government moves to ensure that every tom dick and harry can go to college. This was about to happen.

What's your alternative? We always hear this type of complaint from people who take issue with sending masses to college that a information economy requires, but it seems like they never explain their alternative vision for society.

Not the OP. I would role more into high school, maybe extend it by a year, and fund more schools at the federal level to even the playing field. College loans would be available only for careers with higher than average employment availability, and I'd replace unemployment insurance with retraining/relocation insurance and loans.

Re: Student Loans Are A Drag On The Economy

#98

It's not the interest, it's the principal. And I don't understand how the principal got so high. Is calculus ten times more expensive to teach than it was thirty years ago? Is Shakespeare? Supply is totally inelastic, because it's almost impossible to get a new college accredited (for profit schools all started with an already accredited school and expand them). Same with demand - not having a college degree puts you…

Sort of, it's a bit more complex than that. Tuition costs and textbook costs have skyrocketed (see http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2013/10/23/charts-just-h... ) while faculty salaries have stagnated or even gone down in real terms ( http://www.aaup.org/NR/rdonlyres/C2BAFA70-057E-4097-908B-6E4... ) Empire-building is correct though in the sense that public institutions are the ones raising their tuition costs by s…

Though I agree cancerous physical plant growth is an issue, a couple of additional points:

1) Spending on non-faculty salaries have gone through the roof with the exponential growth of well paid but educationally marginal deanlets, deanlings, and administrators.

2) Although total salaries for the tenured professoriat hasn't necessarily exploded, salary per classroom-student hour has as tenured professors have seen their teaching requirements fall, and as large lectures are increasingly taught by poorly paid adjuncts.

A generation ago a 3-3 or 4-4 was typical for a tenured liberal arts or social sciences professor, and most freshmen seminars were taught by full faculty. Today many teach 2/2 or even 2/1, and they might well be all be graduate / upper class seminars and supervising student research.

Re: Student Loans Are A Drag On The Economy

#99
post #81

Why are student loans so high, the market so ridden with defaults, and the price of education so high? I think (well, I'm a little more certain than that) the answer is basic economics. Here's my take: You (America) have a government that offers discount loans - i.e. loans with poor prospects/low interests rates - in the hope of driving a higher allocation of capital to education than would occur in a pure private le…

> And again, because humans and humans, colleges, which in America have little government oversight as to pricing, raise their pricing. Why? Because people will still pay it. For whatever reason, colleges are able to bank on their prestige and identity, on the promise of access to important social circles, and so pure pressure for price is diluted

Harvard could double its price, and still have no trouble filling every available seat. Same goes for the rest of the Ivy League, and also MIT, Stanford, Caltech, and other top non-public schools. How do your theories explain their costs being so much lower than what the market would bear?

Furthermore, these schools have been increasingly replacing loans with grants. Stanford has gone so far as to waive tuition for students whose families have income under $100k, and to also waive room and board for those whose families make under $60k. If you theories were correct, wouldn't Stanford be telling those students to get loans? That would make more money for Stanford.

Re: Student Loans Are A Drag On The Economy

#100
post #81

Why are student loans so high, the market so ridden with defaults, and the price of education so high? I think (well, I'm a little more certain than that) the answer is basic economics. Here's my take: You (America) have a government that offers discount loans - i.e. loans with poor prospects/low interests rates - in the hope of driving a higher allocation of capital to education than would occur in a pure private le…

By the time we reform government lending to "fix" this, education will already be disrupted with MOOCs and other internet tools. I am talking about 5-10 years from now.

The problem isn't with fields like comp sci or history where people don't need a degree to work as professionals. The problem is with institutions with guilds like like American Bar Association and American Medical Association. You need a license to practice, and almost everyone only gets that after spending over $100,000 on accredited schools. (Are there exceptions?)

Soooo ... the price of education in every OTHER field will go down, but not med schools or law schools or other schools which prepare you for licensing.

I am a firm believer that basic medical insurance and education should be collectively bargained by the government. And we do - most libertarians and republican fiscal conservatives are clamoring for vouchers over public schools. But vouchers are the same kind of sigle payer system they find so distatesful in medical insurance. It's really funny, really! American political views, like many others, are influenced more by media rhetoric and culture than logic.

Basic education and medical safety nets are something everyone in civilized society has come to expect. I think this should extend to basic courses online such as MOOCs on history and other "core" curricula. The government should switch from subsidizing community colleges with professors teaching 50 students at a time and slowly shift to subsidizing online universities and MOOC initiatives. Colleges subsidized by the government should be required to invert their classroom and prepare students to learn online, instead of spending so much $$ on traditional formats from 100 years ago.

On the other hand how many doctors and lawyers do we need? We don't know. The market needs to determine this. If the government subsidizes THESE professions, it will distort the market.

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