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Ask HN: Where are the 750k Bitcoins lost by Mt. Gox?

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Re: Ask HN: Where are the 750k Bitcoins lost by Mt. Gox?

#41

Post by deweller »

neals wrote: post #30
deweller wrote: post #28

In November of 2011 Mt. Gox demonstrated control of 500k BTC. I followed the 500,000 BTC for a bit beginning at https://blockchain.info/tx/b269bf1b82dae8a61f7f91dbf7a9d807e... . The coins move around and small amounts are sent away, but the majority ends up back in Mt. Gox's main (hot) wallet. This repeats a few times until the majority is paid back to the main Mt.Gox address. Here is the transaction where it starts…

Can anybody follow one of these "branches" until the very last known transaction on the blockchain? Would that clear anything up?

I haven't seen anyone do a comprehensive analysis yet. I assume someone is working on this. But maybe everyone else thinks that too.

Here is a some background information at Let's Talk Bitcoin:

http://letstalkbitcoin.com/the-ghost-in-the-machine-at-mtgox

Re: Ask HN: Where are the 750k Bitcoins lost by Mt. Gox?

#42

Post by drcode »

eterm wrote: post #12

This is another possibility people are overlook, that perhaps they never had them. Perhaps they simply built up a liability of 800k bitcoins by trading on their own exchange and making some bad calls.

If I had to venture a guess, I'd bet that not even Mark Karpeles knows what happened to the money.

Re: Ask HN: Where are the 750k Bitcoins lost by Mt. Gox?

#43

Post by mtlolx »

jnbiche wrote: post #9
fredgrott wrote: post #7

Here s an idea.. Feds sized silk road and the Bitcoin wallets If any was stored or transacted at MTGox this might be some of the amount of losses MTGOX is now showing but NOT ALL OF The lOSSeS obviously

Bingo. The Feds seized their cold wallet somehow. Mark has said repeatedly that Mt. Gox is under investigation and that he can't talk about it. There's a supposed IRC log from two days ago where he let it slip that he's under a gag order, saying two days ago "le gouv US ne veut pas qu'on disclose" (the US gov. doesn't want us to say anything)[0]. And he's said in public that he can't discuss the matter since he's und…

This is an unusually silly conspiracy theory.

I find it extremely unlikely that MtGox would falsely claim that they suffered a theft due to transaction malleability (a real point of possible error) if the actual issue was a US Government seizure. It just strikes me as utterly unbelievable that they would actively cover up (rather than simply failing to disclose) a government seizure.

It's far, far more likely that Karpales is either grossly incompetent or a thief than it is that he's making up complicated stories to cover up a government action.

Re: Ask HN: Where are the 750k Bitcoins lost by Mt. Gox?

#44

Post by TelmoMenezes »

loceng wrote: post #21
bushido wrote: post #6

With the possibility of getting down voted into oblivion. The BTC lost/stolen are all available within blockchain/public ledger. Depending on who stole them, it would probably be distributed within multiple very smaller transaction. It my be traceable, but likely unrecoverable, because this is a feature of Bitcoin. In other words authorities and forensic enthusiasts can find the BTC but they are most likely lost at t…

This is the issue. It can become a never-ending wild-goose chase. The thieves can continue to move the funds around until they're no longer tracked, or far enough ahead that from the trackers (assuming there's any enforcement or penalties or laws relating to accepting stolen Bitcoin - which there aren't currently) or just spend them if they're not being tracked or if there's no enforcement in place. The thieves will…

> The problem with Bitcoin is that because there's no fee associated with them, there's no money or resources being made available or directed towards policing and following of these thieves.

How do you know that? Given the amount that was stolen, I would be very surprised if some victims are not employing considerable resources to find the thieves. Also given the amount, many layers and private investigators are probably willing to do speculative work on commission. It would just be silly for them to advertise such efforts.

Re: Ask HN: Where are the 750k Bitcoins lost by Mt. Gox?

#45

Post by deweller »

ihsw wrote: post #39
deweller wrote: post #28

In November of 2011 Mt. Gox demonstrated control of 500k BTC. I followed the 500,000 BTC for a bit beginning at https://blockchain.info/tx/b269bf1b82dae8a61f7f91dbf7a9d807e... . The coins move around and small amounts are sent away, but the majority ends up back in Mt. Gox's main (hot) wallet. This repeats a few times until the majority is paid back to the main Mt.Gox address. Here is the transaction where it starts…

"Coming together" is a bit difficult to determine -- how do you identify a large group of recipient addresses as a single entity? How do you differentiate between a group of addresses belonging to a single owner, and a group of addresses belonging to multiple owners? We can construct a graph tree all destinations beginning from that one address, but what good would that be? Where do you make inferences to determine t…

Here is an example of something you might find:

Say you traced these coins to 50 different addresses. And then, for example, say that those addresses lay dormant for 3 months. And then 45 of those addresses send bitcoins somewhere on the same day. That would imply that the coins are under the control of a single owner.

I agree it is difficult and beyond the scope of just writing a simple script.

Re: Ask HN: Where are the 750k Bitcoins lost by Mt. Gox?

#46

Post by gnaritas »

jnbiche wrote: post #9
fredgrott wrote: post #7

Here s an idea.. Feds sized silk road and the Bitcoin wallets If any was stored or transacted at MTGox this might be some of the amount of losses MTGOX is now showing but NOT ALL OF The lOSSeS obviously

Bingo. The Feds seized their cold wallet somehow. Mark has said repeatedly that Mt. Gox is under investigation and that he can't talk about it. There's a supposed IRC log from two days ago where he let it slip that he's under a gag order, saying two days ago "le gouv US ne veut pas qu'on disclose" (the US gov. doesn't want us to say anything)[0]. And he's said in public that he can't discuss the matter since he's und…

He should have shut down the exchange the second that happened; keeping it open is fraud.

Re: Ask HN: Where are the 750k Bitcoins lost by Mt. Gox?

#47

Post by Consultant32452 »

neals wrote: post #30
deweller wrote: post #28

In November of 2011 Mt. Gox demonstrated control of 500k BTC. I followed the 500,000 BTC for a bit beginning at https://blockchain.info/tx/b269bf1b82dae8a61f7f91dbf7a9d807e... . The coins move around and small amounts are sent away, but the majority ends up back in Mt. Gox's main (hot) wallet. This repeats a few times until the majority is paid back to the main Mt.Gox address. Here is the transaction where it starts…

Can anybody follow one of these "branches" until the very last known transaction on the blockchain? Would that clear anything up?

If you were going to steal bitcoins in this manner you'd run them through a number of tumblers. Tumblers are essentially the laundering facility for bitcoins. Lots of coins from various locations come in, put into a pool, and then get sent back out. There's no way to track coins you receive back to a particular transaction. Since 6% of all bitcoins are stolen, more than likely anyone holding bitcoins has a good chance of holding some stolen ones.

Re: Ask HN: Where are the 750k Bitcoins lost by Mt. Gox?

#48

Post by chevreuil »

deweller wrote: post #28

In November of 2011 Mt. Gox demonstrated control of 500k BTC. I followed the 500,000 BTC for a bit beginning at https://blockchain.info/tx/b269bf1b82dae8a61f7f91dbf7a9d807e... . The coins move around and small amounts are sent away, but the majority ends up back in Mt. Gox's main (hot) wallet. This repeats a few times until the majority is paid back to the main Mt.Gox address. Here is the transaction where it starts…

I'm a bit new to bitcoins, but is it technically possible for the bitcoins community as a whole to make a blacklist of bitcoins addresses and "ban" the stolen bitcoins ? Such blacklist would daunt robbers and enforce public trust in bitcoins.

Re: Ask HN: Where are the 750k Bitcoins lost by Mt. Gox?

#49

Post by d0ugie »

loceng wrote: post #21
bushido wrote: post #6

With the possibility of getting down voted into oblivion. The BTC lost/stolen are all available within blockchain/public ledger. Depending on who stole them, it would probably be distributed within multiple very smaller transaction. It my be traceable, but likely unrecoverable, because this is a feature of Bitcoin. In other words authorities and forensic enthusiasts can find the BTC but they are most likely lost at t…

This is the issue. It can become a never-ending wild-goose chase. The thieves can continue to move the funds around until they're no longer tracked, or far enough ahead that from the trackers (assuming there's any enforcement or penalties or laws relating to accepting stolen Bitcoin - which there aren't currently) or just spend them if they're not being tracked or if there's no enforcement in place. The thieves will…

Wouldn't, in this high profile clustereff, somehow tracking down those bitcoins cause bitcoin in general more harm than good? Would it not highlight that one way or another, either by fault of bitcoin or human error, that like Tor it is not bulletproof in terms of anonymity and susceptibility to being taken back from someone, whether that someone is a good or bad guy?

Re: Ask HN: Where are the 750k Bitcoins lost by Mt. Gox?

#50

Post by d0ugie »

loceng wrote: post #21
bushido wrote: post #6

With the possibility of getting down voted into oblivion. The BTC lost/stolen are all available within blockchain/public ledger. Depending on who stole them, it would probably be distributed within multiple very smaller transaction. It my be traceable, but likely unrecoverable, because this is a feature of Bitcoin. In other words authorities and forensic enthusiasts can find the BTC but they are most likely lost at t…

This is the issue. It can become a never-ending wild-goose chase. The thieves can continue to move the funds around until they're no longer tracked, or far enough ahead that from the trackers (assuming there's any enforcement or penalties or laws relating to accepting stolen Bitcoin - which there aren't currently) or just spend them if they're not being tracked or if there's no enforcement in place. The thieves will…

Wouldn't, in this high profile clustereff, somehow tracking down those bitcoins cause bitcoin in general more harm than good? Would it not highlight that one way or another, either by fault of bitcoin or human error, that like Tor it is not bulletproof in terms of anonymity and susceptibility to being taken back from someone, whether that someone is a good or bad guy?
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