Live data from Hacker News

Ask HN: What is really wrong with the US economy, really?

news.ycombinator.com

91–100 of 160 posts

Re: Ask HN: What is really wrong with the US economy, really?

#91
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Energy spending as percentage of income has gone down. Also, the inflation adjusted price of gasoline hasn't really changed in a brutal manner: http://www.randomuseless.info/gasprice/gasprice.html It's twice as high as the 'typical' trend, but vehicles make better enough mileage to eat most of that. Edit: and if you drill into it, the shipping cost of the food at the grocery store is probably less than the gas cost o…

Please support your first statement. Because the link you give does not fit with your assertion. It shows price compared to 1979, once of the worst years in the U.S. for the price of gas. The chart shows a steady climb in recent years to a point where it now matches or exceeds the inflation adjusted price of 1979 -- again, one of the worst years for gas prices in the U.S. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_energy_cris…

I was sort of sloppily making two points. Gas prices are energy prices that 'we really feel', and they have only gone up some; qualitatively, gas is still cheap enough that (many) people drive around without thinking about it much.

This shows residential energy as a percentage going down:

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=10891

This shows gasoline roughly matching the other link:

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=9831

But to the point, a 1 or 2% increase in gasoline spending might stink, but it shouldn't be smashing the economy.

Re: Ask HN: What is really wrong with the US economy, really?

#92
$110k isn't very much for late-30s professional anymore, especially for a single income earner.

$150k x 2 for Seattle, or $200-250k x2 for SFBA, is more like a high-end DINK situation, if you count the value of stock and other benefits. $110k is solidly middle class, and fine if you're in your 20s, but by late 30s I'd consider that on the low end of someone in the software engineering field.

Muni drivers or police/fire/etc. in SF can easily make in the 100-250k range, without college.

(I agree this is all insane, but...inflation. And particularly in the coastal areas. If we were a separate country from the midwest, inflation would be vastly more pronounced. In SF, items e.g. iPhones bought by your employer cost basically 10-20% what they cost in the midwest bought personally for non-business reasons, once you account for taxes, salary differentials, etc. Crazy.)

Re: Ask HN: What is really wrong with the US economy, really?

#93
post #39

I'm not sure if I agree that your grandparents were under less pressure in their jobs. Overall, I think life is far easier today than it was 50 years ago, at least for most workers. It sounds like you're doing better than 99% of people. Six figure income, no huge expenses. I think the question isn't 'what's the problem with the economy' - really the question should be 'what's the problem with our expectations?' I thi…

Well, I can't really know my grandparents' state of mind. But my grandfather drove trucks locally, and my grandmother worked in a supermarket. Try to imagine affording a single family house and two cars with jobs like that today. They always seemed like they enjoyed their jobs. My grandfather kept working long after retirement age. I never heard them complain about their jobs or give any indication they didn't like t…

Think about where your grandfather & grandmother lived, and what the place was like when they lived there. Silicon Valley, for example, was pretty cheap before the tech booms. Speaking to people who moved there in the late 70's and early 80's, there were still orchards and fields everywhere.

What I'm getting at is it's easy to get by on simple jobs like that when you live in Nowhere, WY. Then, later, when the town booms people are incredulous about how you were ever able to afford living there.

Re: Ask HN: What is really wrong with the US economy, really?

#94
I believe surrounding yourself with highly creative people is the problem you're talking about.

I just had this conversation with a friend of mine last night. It seems the answer is nothing. You're situation, which is very similar to my own, is a pretty good one.

You've worked so hard. You've gotten so far. Yet something is off. You've made it and then immediately readjusted the goal posts. Now you haven't made it. Your situation sucks and you don't know why. Well, it doesn't suck but something is off.

I believe this desire is born out of those productive creative people you're exposed to; be it your friends in real life or on Facebook or just people you look up to or read about.

The pressure you're feeling is the comparison you make between yourself and others; it's the death knell of ever feeling good about yourself. You'll never feel satisfied because you're not a successful writer or actor or musician or scrabble player or race car driver or etc like your friends are.

I think the pressure you're feeling is WhatApps gets acquired for $19 billion and you go "damn it I'm how old and how creative and fuck I can't even write a damn blog post and these guys carve out some time and make something badass."

You're economic success is not inline with your actual creative output or potential. Bottom line, sounds like you have some creative juices pent up that need to be let out.

Go make something.

Because if the economy is bad you're not feeling it(110k, decent savings, no debt?, paid-off car, etc.), so it might be something else.

Re: Ask HN: What is really wrong with the US economy, really?

#95
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please support your first statement. Because the link you give does not fit with your assertion. It shows price compared to 1979, once of the worst years in the U.S. for the price of gas. The chart shows a steady climb in recent years to a point where it now matches or exceeds the inflation adjusted price of 1979 -- again, one of the worst years for gas prices in the U.S. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_energy_cris…

I was sort of sloppily making two points. Gas prices are energy prices that 'we really feel', and they have only gone up some; qualitatively, gas is still cheap enough that (many) people drive around without thinking about it much. This shows residential energy as a percentage going down: http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=10891 This shows gasoline roughly matching the other link: http://www.eia.gov/today…

Well, I have had two classes on Peak Oil and I really don't agree. To reiterate: The current U.S. economy/lifestyle is based on cheap oil. Cheap oil is gradually disappearing. It will only get worse from here. This is just the beginning. Since cheap oil is a foundation stone for our current culture, changes there will be felt wide and deep.

But I guess this is the point at which we agree to disagree.

Thank you for responding. (Edit: and have some upvotes)

Re: Ask HN: What is really wrong with the US economy, really?

#96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You said: that still pales in comparison to the cost of rent in pretty much any part of the country. Do you actually know what the cost of rent is in the rest of the country? Not long ago I paid $450/mo to split a 3br apartment with two friends in a moderate town 1 hour from a major city. Compared to that, $200/month on connectivity is indeed quite a lot.

I will agree that sharing larger accommodations (3br, 4br, etc) is a great way to cut costs, and that housing is much cheaper in other parts of the country. Will you still argue that housing + health care don't dwarf most other expenses? Cost of living is a sum of costs, not just the cost of rent or the cost of health care. That sum keeps going up. Also, for many people sharing a big apartment/house is simply not an…

Housing & health care are indeed the greatest costs, I'm just arguing that other costs are usually not so small in comparison that they can be waived in this discussion as negligible. If you rent a studio for $800 (as you could in this town), cutting your communication costs by $100-200 yield a moderate but real impact.

I don't mean I live in the middle of nowhere and commute to the city, I mean it's a satellite town of the variety you often find near large cities (To give you an idea). 150,000 people, and I live 200 yards from one of many fire stations.

Re: Ask HN: What is really wrong with the US economy, really?

#98
post #88

If you don't mind my asking, how far would you say that $110,000 has gotten you in Seattle?

I've done quite well in Seattle living within my means.

Maybe you don't have the health issues his remark implies? (In that after rent, his next highest expense is 'medical and dental'.)

Re: Ask HN: What is really wrong with the US economy, really?

#99
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please support your first statement. Because the link you give does not fit with your assertion. It shows price compared to 1979, once of the worst years in the U.S. for the price of gas. The chart shows a steady climb in recent years to a point where it now matches or exceeds the inflation adjusted price of 1979 -- again, one of the worst years for gas prices in the U.S. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_energy_cris…

I was sort of sloppily making two points. Gas prices are energy prices that 'we really feel', and they have only gone up some; qualitatively, gas is still cheap enough that (many) people drive around without thinking about it much. This shows residential energy as a percentage going down: http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=10891 This shows gasoline roughly matching the other link: http://www.eia.gov/today…

I think it's a big mistake to assume most of the expensive oil effect are through direct energy expenditures.

Consider what is listed as "shelter", "transportation" and "food". The biggest costs are there, according to the first page you linked. Those areas heavily affected by cost of energy and reduce what is available for all the rest, including spending on gasoline.

Are vehicle miles going up or down? Maybe gasoline spending is not increasing, because people just don't have any money left for it?

Re: Ask HN: What is really wrong with the US economy, really?

#100
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd say effectively nowhere. My lifestyle is literally identical to what it was 15 years ago when I was just starting out. It honestly feels like the goalposts keep moving. I am doing better than my parents, who were poor. I am doing worse than my grandparents, who had 8th grade educations.

How is that? Again, I don't really mean to press you too far with the questions, I'm just a young guy who hears $110,000 and thinks "gee, that's a lot of money".

I'm a young guy who makes approximately that much, and I feel like I'm not getting very far either.

I moved from my hometown of Winnipeg, Canada to Silicon Valley to build my career. In moving, I tripled my salary. I am definitely better off financially for having moved, but my daily quality of life is lower. Here's some food for thought:

* HOUSING QUALITY AND COST. This is, bar none, the most important aspect of my currently feeling like I'm barely getting by. In Winnipeg, if you're roommating an apartment ~30 minutes bus from downtown, your rent will be around $300/mo. 1br to yourself will set you back $500-$1000 depending where you live. The fanciest 1br penthouse I could find was $1700. Personally, I lived in a rather 'expensive', nice 1br apartment that was in a trendy, gentrifying neighbourhood about 1.5 miles from my work downtown. It cost me $850/mo and that was a luxury. I could've gotten much cheaper if I wasn't so picky about location. Compare with SF: Housing here costs a fortune. And strict rent control + high paying jobs means that the housing they do build is marketed to high income people (read: twitter millionaires). So not only is nothing available in a reasonable price range, but there are many social factors that try to make $3500/mo studios sound normal. In SF, paying a similar percentage of my take-home income as I did in Winnipeg, I get a shitty, tiny, 'jr 1 bedroom' (~400sqft) apartment nestled between a noisy road and a freeway. I can walk to work, but it's 3 miles one way, and takes me through some areas I don't feel comfortable walking alone in.

Housing cost anchors everything else. In Winnipeg I'd be paying $300/mo for what I have and where I have it; in SF I pay $1600. My salary tripled; it didn't quintuple. And because housing costs are the anchor, it makes everything else more expensive by comparison

* KEEPING UP WITH THE HIGH-POWERED JONESES. Tech has a lot of young, rich people in it. And young rich people don't always make the wisest decisions. Consequently, there's a lot of conspicuous consumption going on. I feel like I can't afford to keep up, because I'm financially disciplined and highly value long term stability. I look at other people and assume they do the same. Perhaps they don't. Maybe they're spending 50% of their disposable income on cheap glasses, expensive jeans, and cocktails with PBR in them. I spend almost 50% of my disposable (post-living-expenses) income on savings. Appearances can be misleading, and if you don't consciously keep aware of this, it can be demoralizing

* A NEW NORMAL. I would say that, proportional to cost of living, my real income has not substantially risen by moving. However, it has inflated. And inflation is a good thing when compared against uninflated prices. For example, flights. A flight from YWG to SFO costs ~$700, regardless if I live in Winnipeg ($40k income, $400/mo) or SF ($120k income, $1600/mo rent). As a result, my day-to-day standard of life hasn't increased, but my ability to do things outside of my day to day has. When I lived in Winnipeg, I was unable to take more than one flight per year, anywhere (and I usually spent it on professional develoment-related things). Now, I think nothing of dropping a few hundred dollars to fly to a conference on a weekend. The same goes for nationally-marketed goods such as electronics. My rent might've gone waaay up, but an iphone costs $800USD regardless of where I live. It's easy to overlook this, because it is not a typical everyday thing.

* LONG TERM SAVINGS. This is a little bit more important for me, since I'm paying into SS but as a non-citizen, will never collect a dime. But savings. Savings don't really have an emotional feel to them. They're not tangible, they're just some numbers on pages. If you're pumping a lot of money into savings (like I am), it can feel like that is just money that's disappearing. But nothing could be farther from the truth. Many people live in the US month-to-month, and are one crisis away from bankruptcy. My parents both grew up in households like that. Hell, my parents' households are CURRENTLY like that. I, on the other hand, am squirreling away much of my money. I'm maxing my 401k, so that in my 60s I'll be ok. I'm building up some personal savings, to achieve some personal goals (largely investment related, with the purpose of rescuing me from wage slavery). These are very important things, but they FEEL like money that just disappears

Post reply on HN