The Federal Reserve purchases $85 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds—much of it worthless subprime mortgages—each month.
I think people are missing the main point. Debt-equity swaps have been a major tool of the Federal Reserve in bailing out TBTF banks. Here's how it works: I'm a banker. I paid $10B for MBSes in 2007. Big mistake. In 2008, their valuation fell to $0. So I do a swap with the Federal Reserve. I give Ben Bernake my portfolio of MBSes. And he gives me $10B in US Treasury Bonds he's purchased. I never would have made a dim…
The Myth of Human Progress and the Collapse of Complex Societies
51–58 of 58 posts
Re: The Myth of Human Progress and the Collapse of Complex Societies
#52Wow. I kind of agree - but really let's say we listen to our inner doubts, we mutiny and throw Ahab overboard, we are still on a whaler in the middle of the ocean. Now what? Our (global?) society is on course for destruction on the ocean - but that course is also sailing use closer to the promised land. Every innovation, every step closer to the singularity requires us to move faster, land more sure-footedly. Yes we…
I question whether you even read, or worse, understood what Hedges was getting at with this piece. Hedges is essentially saying we should become Marxist, but here you are saying that maybe we can redeem ourselves and survive on the 'knife edge'. Hedges addresses this by quoting Emma Goldman about half-way through. Capitalism can't be fixed with a few patches here and there, it must be abolished and trying to appear m…
> Capitalism can't be fixed with a few patches here and there, it must be abolished and trying to appear moderate makes you no different than the crew members of Pequod who played into Ahab's mania.
This may sound silly but is there a common definition of capitalism? It seems rather woolly compared to say, Marxism. Capitalism seems to me to be something we have been doing for tens of thousands of years. Saying "no capitalism is what Marx said it was so that he had something to be against" is kind of backwards. (that may not be what you are saying, but its what I got from the article)
To my mind the biggest difference between capitalism and communism (as practised) has been the use of price as a signalling mechanism (see the way China moved away from a centrally planned model).
Otherwise capitalism seems to have covered a vast vast range of practises over centuries, but perhaps can be boiled down to trade or trade with price as a signalling mechanism.
If this "definition" of capitalism is right, then it seems that it gets fixed often.
BTW, I am in favour of massive change, including the dunking of captains, the fundamentals of our society are creaking and there is a new approach needed. Its just that the next workable approach is not an approach anyone has so far tried, and probably not thought of, (although much more open transparent decision making and information is almost certainly going to be involved thanks to the Internet).
So chucking Ahab overboard when we do not know what course to set after is a bad idea, but chucking him overboard if he threatens to sink the ship is a good idea. We are just disagreeing on whether this current bout of mad behaviour (whatever it may be) is a threat to the ship or not.
Thank for the reply anyway.
Re: The Myth of Human Progress and the Collapse of Complex Societies
#53Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think people are missing the main point. Debt-equity swaps have been a major tool of the Federal Reserve in bailing out TBTF banks. Here's how it works: I'm a banker. I paid $10B for MBSes in 2007. Big mistake. In 2008, their valuation fell to $0. So I do a swap with the Federal Reserve. I give Ben Bernake my portfolio of MBSes. And he gives me $10B in US Treasury Bonds he's purchased. I never would have made a dim…
Technically I suppose the MBS issuers are now a subsidiary of the Treasury. But I'm not sure about the 'worthless subprime debt' part. They're buying good quality MBSs in order to keep rates down and support the housing market, not to take toxic assets off the books of financial institutions.
Lawrence Hunter wrote an op-ed for Forbes back in 2012 saying the Fed's (at the time) "$1.3T" of MBSes were "worthless." http://www.forbes.com/sites/lawrencehunter/2012/10/29/are-fe...
My main job was pricing MBSes. The calculation is basically sum of discounted contingent cashflows. Even before the 2008 crisis, back in the mid 90s, I'd often see MBSes with a negative net income. Then I'd get frantic phone calls from upset clients, often accountants or CFOs or brokers, who couldn't understand how a valuation less than zero was even possible, and I'd have to explain how their expected expenditures were going to be greater than their revenues...
I tend to agree with Hunter and Hedges that the Fed's "$1.5T" of MBSes are mostly worthless.
That said, I also understand the reasons why the Fed is making these purchases: increase MBS prices, increase liquidity in the MBS market, and so forth. But the bigger reason still seems to me: bail out TBTF banks.
For the Fed's POV on this subject, they publish FAQs and data on their "MBS Purchase Program" several places:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/reform_mbs.htm
Re: The Myth of Human Progress and the Collapse of Complex Societies
#54Earlier quoted context omitted.
Technically I suppose the MBS issuers are now a subsidiary of the Treasury. But I'm not sure about the 'worthless subprime debt' part. They're buying good quality MBSs in order to keep rates down and support the housing market, not to take toxic assets off the books of financial institutions.
It's important to note that the Fed is purchasing these securities at "face value"...they're not doing any kind of valuation. Lawrence Hunter wrote an op-ed for Forbes back in 2012 saying the Fed's (at the time) "$1.3T" of MBSes were "worthless." http://www.forbes.com/sites/lawrencehunter/2012/10/29/are-fe... My main job was pricing MBSes. The calculation is basically sum of discounted contingent cashflows. Even befo…
Firstly, the Fed is purchasing agency MBSs at market rates. They are pushing prices up since they are bringing demand to the market, but they are otherwise bidding competitively. The idea that these MBSs are basically worthless doesn't make sense when there is a large market for them.
Secondly a lot of the MBSs (which are all government guaranteed) are newly issued, so it can hardly be said they are helping TBTF banks decant their toxic assets leftover from the financial crisis.
Thirdly, the Fed actually eventually made a profit on the toxic debt they acquired during the bailouts. The current MBS purchase programs are far less risky. Furthermore, the US Gov has guaranteed the future cashflows of all these MBSs... so I think TBTF banks are a sidenote on this whole issue.
Re: The Myth of Human Progress and the Collapse of Complex Societies
#55Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's important to note that the Fed is purchasing these securities at "face value"...they're not doing any kind of valuation. Lawrence Hunter wrote an op-ed for Forbes back in 2012 saying the Fed's (at the time) "$1.3T" of MBSes were "worthless." http://www.forbes.com/sites/lawrencehunter/2012/10/29/are-fe... My main job was pricing MBSes. The calculation is basically sum of discounted contingent cashflows. Even befo…
Thanks for taking the time to post the links. However I have some issues. Firstly, the Fed is purchasing agency MBSs at market rates . They are pushing prices up since they are bringing demand to the market, but they are otherwise bidding competitively. The idea that these MBSs are basically worthless doesn't make sense when there is a large market for them. Secondly a lot of the MBSs (which are all government guaran…
In what way are they "market rates" when the Fed printed $1.5T out of thin air to purchase them? Rather, The Fed is using its market power to set the prices of MBSs.
Re: The Myth of Human Progress and the Collapse of Complex Societies
#56Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's important to note that the Fed is purchasing these securities at "face value"...they're not doing any kind of valuation. Lawrence Hunter wrote an op-ed for Forbes back in 2012 saying the Fed's (at the time) "$1.3T" of MBSes were "worthless." http://www.forbes.com/sites/lawrencehunter/2012/10/29/are-fe... My main job was pricing MBSes. The calculation is basically sum of discounted contingent cashflows. Even befo…
Thanks for taking the time to post the links. However I have some issues. Firstly, the Fed is purchasing agency MBSs at market rates . They are pushing prices up since they are bringing demand to the market, but they are otherwise bidding competitively. The idea that these MBSs are basically worthless doesn't make sense when there is a large market for them. Secondly a lot of the MBSs (which are all government guaran…
The Fed made $90B in profits in 2012, but they were only able to do this by printing $85B per month in QE. In other words, they're printing profits...something you and I are not allowed to do legally. The bigger question is: If they're printing $1T/yr, why are they only making a measly $90B/yr in profits?
Re: The Myth of Human Progress and the Collapse of Complex Societies
#57Earlier quoted context omitted.
Thanks for taking the time to post the links. However I have some issues. Firstly, the Fed is purchasing agency MBSs at market rates . They are pushing prices up since they are bringing demand to the market, but they are otherwise bidding competitively. The idea that these MBSs are basically worthless doesn't make sense when there is a large market for them. Secondly a lot of the MBSs (which are all government guaran…
> the Fed is purchasing agency MBSs at market rates In what way are they "market rates" when the Fed printed $1.5T out of thin air to purchase them? Rather, The Fed is using its market power to set the prices of MBSs.
Re: The Myth of Human Progress and the Collapse of Complex Societies
#58Earlier quoted context omitted.
> the Fed is purchasing agency MBSs at market rates In what way are they "market rates" when the Fed printed $1.5T out of thin air to purchase them? Rather, The Fed is using its market power to set the prices of MBSs.
But it's not like they started bidding on these at 10cents on the dollar and have pushed them all the way up to par. If you look at the transaction data, starting from 2009 the prices have always been round the 100 mark, give or take a percent or two. And why wouldn't they be? The Gov has guaranteed all of these!
The word "guarantee" gets tossed around a lot, but it's misleading:
Fannie and Freddie's "implicit guarantee" only means that the government will lend these GSEs funds to ensure timely payments of principal and interest to mortgagees (not MBS investors!), at rates slightly above the government's own borrowing rate, up to the "conforming loan limit" which is $417,000 in most areas. So it doesn't entirely eliminate default risk. And it doesn't reduce servicer risk or interest rate risk at all.
Only in 2013 with QE3 did The Fed start buying Ginnie Mae MBSs with an "explicit guarantee" that entirely eliminates default risk. (These securities still have issuer/servicer risk.) But The Fed is still buying non-Ginnie MBSs as well.