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The Myth of Human Progress and the Collapse of Complex Societies

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Re: The Myth of Human Progress and the Collapse of Complex Societies

#41
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah come on. I'd say there's at least a 50% chance that the US military and the Department of Energy find a workable new energy source in that timeframe (I have -very- little faith in the European academics who have locked themselves down on ITER and are at this point actively sabotaging other attempts. This is beyond stupid as ITER's timeframe is known and is too little, to late. The project should be cancelled, as t…

You still have two fundamental problems that can't be solved just by inventing new energy sources. The first is smelting and materials. You can recycle steel with just electricity (that's a lossy process) but you can't produce it without burning coal. The same goes for copper and most other metals (aluminum is the only exception to my knowledge). If one wants to support exponentially increasing material consumption,…

exponentially increasing material consumption

Which isn't necessary, because first, the population is no longer increasing exponentially; IIRC the current projection is that world population will level off by about 2050; and second, the amount of material required to accomplish particular things is decreasing as we find new materials and new ways of using them. For example, the structure of cars used to be entirely steel; now much of it is composites, which contain less material and are less energetically expensive to make.

if you listen to the macro-economists, that would cause failure

It depends on which macro-economists you listen to. Some of them understand that increasing wealth does not have to mean increasing consumption of materials or energy.

Re: The Myth of Human Progress and the Collapse of Complex Societies

#42
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah come on. I'd say there's at least a 50% chance that the US military and the Department of Energy find a workable new energy source in that timeframe (I have -very- little faith in the European academics who have locked themselves down on ITER and are at this point actively sabotaging other attempts. This is beyond stupid as ITER's timeframe is known and is too little, to late. The project should be cancelled, as t…

You still have two fundamental problems that can't be solved just by inventing new energy sources. The first is smelting and materials. You can recycle steel with just electricity (that's a lossy process) but you can't produce it without burning coal. The same goes for copper and most other metals (aluminum is the only exception to my knowledge). If one wants to support exponentially increasing material consumption,…

Another big exception is plastic, which covers the vast majority of usecases. Also we're nowhere near "peak" coal, so metal is not going to be a problem any time soon. Eventually, yes, but not this century.

Frankly what happened at Fukushima is over-cautiousness with nuclear power. The stupid fact is that if they hadn't shut down the entire plant, they wouldn't have lost cooling, and we would all have been perfectly fine. Of course, whoever took that decision would have been fired, and skinned alive, allowed to heal, and skinned alive again. I even read at one point that the operators knew this, but followed procedure.

I would also like to say the death toll of Fukushima compares favorably with wind-power related deaths during the same circumstances, and compares insanely favorable compared to fossil-fuel related deaths (some people actually died inspecting a refinery reactor when the wave knocked it over, most are from pipes exploding due to over-pressure. Total is several hundred). Total area rendered inaccessible due to Fukushima also compares favorably compared to area polluted to the point humans can't safely live there any more for fossil fuel plants and refineries.

Re: The Myth of Human Progress and the Collapse of Complex Societies

#43
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You still have two fundamental problems that can't be solved just by inventing new energy sources. The first is smelting and materials. You can recycle steel with just electricity (that's a lossy process) but you can't produce it without burning coal. The same goes for copper and most other metals (aluminum is the only exception to my knowledge). If one wants to support exponentially increasing material consumption,…

exponentially increasing material consumption Which isn't necessary, because first, the population is no longer increasing exponentially; IIRC the current projection is that world population will level off by about 2050; and second, the amount of material required to accomplish particular things is decreasing as we find new materials and new ways of using them. For example, the structure of cars used to be entirely s…

> Which isn't necessary, because first, the population is no longer increasing exponentially...

The problem you run into there is that for a long time the elderly population will be increasing exponentially, and care for the elderly falls on the shoulders of a smaller portion of the population.

> the amount of material required to accomplish particular things is decreasing as we find new materials and new ways of using them.

This would suggest that capita energy consumption of countries with cutting edge technology is well ahead of per capital energy consumption in countries where people have simpler societies and less manufacturing technologies, right? Is that borne out by numbers and evidence?

> Some of them understand that increasing wealth does not have to mean increasing consumption of materials or energy.

Please define "wealth."

Re: The Myth of Human Progress and the Collapse of Complex Societies

#44
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You still have two fundamental problems that can't be solved just by inventing new energy sources. The first is smelting and materials. You can recycle steel with just electricity (that's a lossy process) but you can't produce it without burning coal. The same goes for copper and most other metals (aluminum is the only exception to my knowledge). If one wants to support exponentially increasing material consumption,…

Another big exception is plastic, which covers the vast majority of usecases. Also we're nowhere near "peak" coal, so metal is not going to be a problem any time soon. Eventually, yes, but not this century. Frankly what happened at Fukushima is over-cautiousness with nuclear power. The stupid fact is that if they hadn't shut down the entire plant, they wouldn't have lost cooling, and we would all have been perfectly…

> Another big exception is plastic, which covers the vast majority of usecases. Also we're nowhere near "peak" coal, so metal is not going to be a problem any time soon. Eventually, yes, but not this century.

Coal matters if one is concerned about CO2 emissions if nothing else.

> The stupid fact is that if they hadn't shut down the entire plant, they wouldn't have lost cooling, and we would all have been perfectly fine.

Do we know for sure that containment wasn't lost due to structural damage from the earthquake?

> I would also like to say the death toll of Fukushima compares favorably with wind-power related deaths during the same circumstances...

Is death toll the only factor though? I don't know about you but I think the major impact of Chernobyl of Fukushima will not be, in a hundred years, the death toll but the fact that you have areas of land that are no longer useful for many purposes, like growing food.

Re: The Myth of Human Progress and the Collapse of Complex Societies

#45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for the detailed comment. But could you go into a bit more detail about how the elite actually benefit from factions within a large nation? Like with an example taking today's elite into account.

well, this strategy was all laid out by the designer of the american constitution over 200 years ago in the federalist papers (the ones written by madison) and his notes on the constitutional convention. Madison wrote that the primary purpose of the structure of the american govt under his constitution was to preserve wealth inequality. Madison wrote that the way to do this was to prevent the majority from uniting an…

[deleted]

Re: The Myth of Human Progress and the Collapse of Complex Societies

#46
Chris Hedges took the red pill, and Agent Smith told him, "I'd like to share a revelation that I've had during my time here. It came to me when I tried to classify your species. I've realized that you are not actually mammals. Every mammal on this planet instinctively develops a natural equilibrium with the surrounding environment. But you humans do not. You move to an area and you multiply and multiply until every natural resource is consumed and the only way you can survive is to spread to another area. There is another organism on this planet that follows the same pattern. Do you know what it is? A virus. Human beings are a disease, a cancer of this planet. You are a plague."

The Matrix would have been a better allegory to use than Moby Dick, particularly for HNers. Moby Dick might appeal to Harvard-educated, Arabic-speaking, Vermont liberals like Hedges, but most of us haven't read it and don't want to.

It's not that I disagree with any of Hedges' major points, it's just that I find his presentation erudite, pretentious and snobbish.

Economist Kenneth Boulding summed this up more concisely: "Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist."

And if Capitalism is a "plague," what is the cure? Hedges talks about Marxist revolution, but stops short of calling for one, instead falling back on quotations from Shakespeare, and Kant, and Dante, and Black Elk, and Nazim Hikmet.

So, what is the cure?

1. War and revolutions aren't the answer: If they decimate the population, temporarily reducing resource consumption, decreasing the supply of labor so that wages might finally start rising again after 30 years of stagnation, then what? After all the misery and suffering that war brings, we've bought ourselves a few decades with a slightly more equitable wealth distribution, and put ecological disaster in check for a while, but it's only temporary, and our populations will soon grow themselves back into the same problems all over again.

2. Technology? Increased efficiency will only spur increased consumption. It's called Jevons paradox. Technology will only speed things up.

3. Accelerationism... Help the capitalists steal all the wealth and push us over the edge of ecological disaster. Evolution will make sure something else succeeds us.

4. Enlightenment: In the Gospel of Thomas, Saying 56, Jesus said, "Whoever has become acquainted with the world has found a corpse, and the world is not worthy of the one who has found the corpse."

The world is already dead, and there's nothing Chris Hedges can do about it! Whenever something we love dies, we experience mourning. The stages of mourning are--

Denial - Most of the people in the world are stuck in this stage.

Anger - This is where we find revolutionary groups like the Tea Party and OWS.

Bargaining - I think this is where Hedges finds himself. He really thinks there's a way to resurrect the planet--Art, Poetry, Novels--but he doesn't seem sure.

Depression - Lot's of people struggling at this stage. About 800,000 to a million people commit suicide per year.

Acceptance - Doesn't mean you're ever going to be happy again. It just means you're awake to reality.

Re: The Myth of Human Progress and the Collapse of Complex Societies

#47
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

exponentially increasing material consumption Which isn't necessary, because first, the population is no longer increasing exponentially; IIRC the current projection is that world population will level off by about 2050; and second, the amount of material required to accomplish particular things is decreasing as we find new materials and new ways of using them. For example, the structure of cars used to be entirely s…

> Which isn't necessary, because first, the population is no longer increasing exponentially... The problem you run into there is that for a long time the elderly population will be increasing exponentially, and care for the elderly falls on the shoulders of a smaller portion of the population. > the amount of material required to accomplish particular things is decreasing as we find new materials and new ways of usi…

for a long time the elderly population will be increasing exponentially

Not "for a long time"; for the length of one generation.

This would suggest that capita energy consumption of countries with cutting edge technology is well ahead of per capital energy consumption in countries where people have simpler societies and less manufacturing technologies, right?

No, because per capita energy consumption depends on how wealthy you are as well as how efficient your technology is. What it does suggest is that per capita energy consumption rises more slowly as a function of wealth than one would expect based on your assumptions about increasing use of resources, and that over time, the per capita energy consumption for some fixed level of wealth will get smaller.

Please define "wealth."

The best definition I know of is that wealth is choices: the more things you could choose to do with the resources available to you, the wealthier you are. One could also try to factor in some measure of the quality of the choices; for example, Bill Gates and I can both choose to fly somewhere, but he can choose to fly there on a private jet whereas I can only choose to fly on a commercial airliner. But the key is that nothing requires the resources needed to fly somewhere to be constant; as technology improves, the same goal--such as flying somewhere--can be accomplished with fewer and fewer resources. That means the same level of wealth--the same choices--can be achieved with fewer and fewer resources.

Re: The Myth of Human Progress and the Collapse of Complex Societies

#48
post #8

The Federal Reserve purchases $85 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds—much of it worthless subprime mortgages—each month.

I think people are missing the main point. Debt-equity swaps have been a major tool of the Federal Reserve in bailing out TBTF banks. Here's how it works:

I'm a banker. I paid $10B for MBSes in 2007. Big mistake. In 2008, their valuation fell to $0. So I do a swap with the Federal Reserve. I give Ben Bernake my portfolio of MBSes. And he gives me $10B in US Treasury Bonds he's purchased.

I never would have made a dime off my MBSes. But now, the US tax payer is on the hook for paying me $10B in principal plus interest. Meanwhile, the Fed puts "$10B" of MBSes on its books. Doesn't matter that these debts are worth zero. They get to do it...

Right now, the Fed has "$1.5T" of MBSes on their books from doing these deals. Source: http://money.cnn.com/2013/12/19/news/economy/federal-reserve...

I used to be VP of Mortgage Tax and Accounting at a Wall St. bank back in the 90s, and I try to stay up to date on this fiasco. I don't have a problem with what Chris Hedges said, just how he said it: he said it too fast, and it came out wrong. The main idea is still right.

Re: The Myth of Human Progress and the Collapse of Complex Societies

#49
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Which isn't necessary, because first, the population is no longer increasing exponentially... The problem you run into there is that for a long time the elderly population will be increasing exponentially, and care for the elderly falls on the shoulders of a smaller portion of the population. > the amount of material required to accomplish particular things is decreasing as we find new materials and new ways of usi…

for a long time the elderly population will be increasing exponentially Not "for a long time"; for the length of one generation. This would suggest that capita energy consumption of countries with cutting edge technology is well ahead of per capital energy consumption in countries where people have simpler societies and less manufacturing technologies, right? No, because per capita energy consumption depends on how w…

> What it does suggest is that per capita energy consumption rises more slowly as a function of wealth than one would expect based on your assumptions about increasing use of resources, and that over time, the per capita energy consumption for some fixed level of wealth will get smaller.

I am not sure that works in practice unless one has a lot of resources going to enforce property rights over intangible assets, and unless those rights are the only growth one expects in the economy. The fact is, I may download and play a computer game as a factor of what you call "wealth" (not my definition btw), but as soon as I want to do anything(like go to the store to buy groceries), I have to use energy and materials to do that.

Similarly for the video game developer, the FTC regulator, or anyone else possibly involved, to show up to work you have the same questions of materials and energy. What you end up with instead is greater demand for less and less useful products because good materials become more and more expensive. That sounds like inflation to me, not an increase in wealth. I think we are already heading down that spiral.

As for a definition of wealth, this may seem old fashioned, but I will paraphrase one of the more insightful definitions I have read:

Humans are dependent on material culture since we can't live without clothing or shelter, and tend to have to prepare food in some way. Wealth at its core is a desirable modification to goods and materials in our environment. Wealth is created when we modify something to make it more useful.

0.025% annual growth is still exponential. You can't demand a constant rate of compounding rate of growth without the problem that this demands exhausting all natural resources.

Re: The Myth of Human Progress and the Collapse of Complex Societies

#50
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

for a long time the elderly population will be increasing exponentially Not "for a long time"; for the length of one generation. This would suggest that capita energy consumption of countries with cutting edge technology is well ahead of per capital energy consumption in countries where people have simpler societies and less manufacturing technologies, right? No, because per capita energy consumption depends on how w…

> What it does suggest is that per capita energy consumption rises more slowly as a function of wealth than one would expect based on your assumptions about increasing use of resources, and that over time, the per capita energy consumption for some fixed level of wealth will get smaller. I am not sure that works in practice unless one has a lot of resources going to enforce property rights over intangible assets, and…

a constant rate of compounding rate of growth

The rate isn't constant; it's decreasing. That's the point. For example, you say it takes energy and materials to go to the store or go to work; but it takes less per person now than it used to. (One obvious example is that lots of people can telework now because we have the Internet, conference calling, etc.; I do that several times a week, saving a significant chunk of energy and materials.)

Wealth at its core is a desirable modification to goods and materials in our environment.

Which is done for lots of reasons in addition to food, clothing, and shelter. Your definition of wealth is way too narrow. There are plenty of countries where people have food, clothing, and shelter and nothing else. We call those countries "poor" for a reason.

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