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The Ocean is Broken (2013)

theherald.com.au

221–230 of 246 posts

Re: The Ocean is Broken (2013)

#221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is enough uranium in Australia to last us a few ten thousands years. Sure, fossil fuels are cheaper to harness right now, but they are nowhere near what is possible and feasible.

Not according to any analysis I've seen, most of which project about 80 years' supply at present usage rates. Six if we lean on nuclear for 100% of energy needs. Mind: the minimum feasible grade for extracting energy-positive uranium is around 0.02% grade ( http://www.stormsmith.nl/i05.html ) Generally: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_uranium

The Wiki article you link lists a variety of predictions on global peak uranium. The pessimistic ones, which are a minority, mostly predict that it has already happened (1980, or so). There appear to be 3 predictions that average around 80 years, and one predicts with a 6-fold increase in consumption it would last 12 years.

Meanwhile there are just as many optimistic predictions that it will last for thousands of years, if not longer. What makes you so sure it's only 80/6?

Re: The Ocean is Broken (2013)

#222
post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have plenty of existing nuclear plants that can provide cleaner energy than we get from fossil fuels. Per unit of energy consumed, even the existing nuclear plants are much safer than fossil fuels even when you count the harm from Chernobyl and Fukushima. Uranium/plutonium LWR fission has a pretty critical fuel shortage. These numbers are way too pessimistic; they are produced by the same sort of calculations that…

Uranium ... These numbers are way too pessimistic Then cite your sources. The Wikipedia article I linked cites this MIT study for ~100 years supply at present rates of consumption: http://web.mit.edu/nuclearpower/pdf/nuclearpower-update2009.... I think this is way too pessimistic. For liquid fuels I'd strongly suggest you check recent trends: BP's annual statistical review, CapEx spends and yields from Shell, BP, and…

this MIT study for ~100 years supply at present rates of consumption

P. 12 of that study says "most commentators conclude that a half century of unimpeded growth is possible", and the study appears to agree with that assessment. "Unimpeded growth" means a large increase in consumption rate over the present.

Also, that assessment is based on a once-through fuel cycle and mining as the only uranium source. Over a half century to a century time scale the first assumption is almost certainly invalid (breeder technology is advancing) and the second may be shaky as well. (Note, btw, that a key reason why the MIT study assumed a once-through fuel cycle was not that breeders were not available, but that they were uneconomic at current uranium prices; but obviously if uranium gets scarcer, uranium prices go up and breeders become economically viable.)

Finally, a half century is not 25 years. If we have a half century to a century of nuclear power even with a once-through fuel cycle, we have an obvious alternative to fossil fuels for that time frame. Your claim that we will hit an energy crisis in 25 years assumes that there is no such alternative.

Tell me how much algae fuel you want and what conversion pathways (biodiesel, ethanol, synthesis, solids) you're referring to. Then give me acreages and water estimates. Oh, and how you're going to fertilize all that goop and keep pests out of it.

All of which are issues that are going to be solved, if they're not solved already, probably well within your 25 years, certainly within a half century. Google turns up plenty of hits on "algae fuel" or "algae fuel study" that show plenty of progress in this area.

the foundation for your optimism

Human ingenuity plus profit motive plus an obvious market for cleaner forms of energy. What I noted above with regard to the assessment of breeders being viable is true more generally: a key limitation of most assessments of available energy resources is that they only look at what's economical given current prices, not what's possible. But the economics will change.

That's not to say that there are no obstacles; but as I said before, the main obstacles I see are political, not technical.

Re: The Ocean is Broken (2013)

#223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If they fail to police the fish, their ownership is revoked and the rights are re-auctioned. This is not actually privatization; it is just outsourcing regulatory authority. Under real privatization, private parties are free to waste the resources they own. The theory is that they won't, since it would harm their long-term ability to create value. The reality is that individual humans only need so much money, so de…

If you privatize in this case, you basically say "I only care about the short term". End of story.

Quite the opposite!

Re: The Ocean is Broken (2013)

#224

The astounding decline of the ocean's fisheries is an incredibly important issue. But we all know that. What we all don't know is the solution. What we've got is a classic tragedy of the commons. It's made more difficult due to the international nature of oceanic fisheries - those little guys like to swim around, paying no heed to national boundaries. Plus there's all of that international ocean to police. Who's goin…

I'm fairly left and I'm not opposed to privatization at all. But... The highest bidder can police the fish themselves. If they fail to police the fish, their ownership is revoked and the rights are re-auctioned. Nice in theory, but in practice the highest bidder often ends up as such a strong political lobby that it prevails on government to do the policing, fights tooth-and-nail against quotas, and rights are almost…

You're totally correct that private interests can and do influence the political process!

One of the wonderful side effects of fishery privatization is the creation of a new lobby which does battle against the existing fish lobbies. See, the ultimate goal is to get less fish pulled from the ocean - at least in the short term until fish populations recover. So the fish lobbies are going to go absolutely insane! Imagine all of the out of work fishermen - and not only in Ireland, but Nigeria, Brazil, the Philippines, Indonesia: These are people who literally depend upon the overfishing and plundering of the ocean for their livelihoods.

These organizations (the fishermen, loosely) are already influencing the political process. They are one of the reasons why the current regulations utterly fail. [Remember: It's not as if we just noticed this overfishing problem yesterday. Governments have been trying to 'solve' this issue for decades using traditional statist regulations - and of course failing, predictably.]

We already know that privatization of food sources works in practice. All we've got to do is apply what works so incredibly well on land to the oceans.

Edit: Oh, and if the fish lobby gets the government to help with policing? That'd be great! [even if not ideal] Isn't the whole goal here to force 3rd world trawlers from pulling out too many fish? You're going to need a lot of guns to do that!

Edit2: We are completely fine with the government protecting private farms on land. What's wrong, philosophically, with government protection of private fisheries in the ocean?

Re: The Ocean is Broken (2013)

#225
post #58

The astounding decline of the ocean's fisheries is an incredibly important issue. But we all know that. What we all don't know is the solution. What we've got is a classic tragedy of the commons. It's made more difficult due to the international nature of oceanic fisheries - those little guys like to swim around, paying no heed to national boundaries. Plus there's all of that international ocean to police. Who's goin…

Countries can prevent markets from being utilized to off-load those fish. It's not entirely preventable, but it can be made difficult enough to not be profitable. The sad, unfortunate, fact is that some countries' (Japan, China, for two examples, EDIT: but certainly some citizens from nearly all countries) citizens care far less about the sustainability of their fishing, and more about having what they desire, when t…

Unfortunately, the solution "everyone just needs to be more like me" rarely works.

Re: The Ocean is Broken (2013)

#226

The astounding decline of the ocean's fisheries is an incredibly important issue. But we all know that. What we all don't know is the solution. What we've got is a classic tragedy of the commons. It's made more difficult due to the international nature of oceanic fisheries - those little guys like to swim around, paying no heed to national boundaries. Plus there's all of that international ocean to police. Who's goin…

> We have to privatize the oceans fisheries. It is imperative. It has to happen now. It has to happen yesterday. Fish stocks are collapsing. Fish stocks have collapsed. How does that help non-crop fish? They don't have direct economic value to the private fishing company. What happens when the private fishery comes to the conclusion that it is a lost cause, so their best interest is to fish as fast as possible?

1) Non edible fish don't really apply to this specific discussion.

2) If they decide to fish as fast as possible, then at least it's at least identical to the status quo :)

First, do no harm

Re: The Ocean is Broken (2013)

#227
post #63

The astounding decline of the ocean's fisheries is an incredibly important issue. But we all know that. What we all don't know is the solution. What we've got is a classic tragedy of the commons. It's made more difficult due to the international nature of oceanic fisheries - those little guys like to swim around, paying no heed to national boundaries. Plus there's all of that international ocean to police. Who's goin…

And shortly thereafter, this will transform into a debate about the horrors of farm bred fish, and the wonders of free range salmon. How their tiny pens stop them from being fully self-actualized prior to entering our bellies, and the awful quantities of antibiotics, waste feed, and disease that destroy the purity of their rainbow-like scales. We'll have PETA slicing fishery nets, and then weeping before Pike's Place…

My point is about privatizing the free range salmon and has nothing to do with fish farms :)

Of course, PETA would undoubtedly find that even more offensive.

Re: The Ocean is Broken (2013)

#228

The astounding decline of the ocean's fisheries is an incredibly important issue. But we all know that. What we all don't know is the solution. What we've got is a classic tragedy of the commons. It's made more difficult due to the international nature of oceanic fisheries - those little guys like to swim around, paying no heed to national boundaries. Plus there's all of that international ocean to police. Who's goin…

> If they fail to police the fish, their ownership is revoked and the rights are re-auctioned. This is not actually privatization; it is just outsourcing regulatory authority. Under real privatization, private parties are free to waste the resources they own. The theory is that they won't, since it would harm their long-term ability to create value. The reality is that individual humans only need so much money, so de…

>Under real privatization, private parties are free to waste the resources they own.

Exactly!

And without privatization, private parties are free to waste the resources everyone else owns.

Re: The Ocean is Broken (2013)

#230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There was (and maybe still is) a project to build an open-source low-power autonomous robot to clean up oil spills. https://sites.google.com/a/opensailing.net/protei/ Not sure if still active. Presumably, you could build something to pick up trash in general. Bigger issue though is the trawling -- junk or no junk, trawling is incredibly devastating to the ecosystem.

I was curious about a ship designed to clean up the wreckage after a tsunami or the pacific garbage.

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