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Microsoft is Dead (2007)

paulgraham.com

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Re: Microsoft is Dead (2007)

#101

Post by rmc »

eldavido wrote: post #10

It's really interesting how in 2007, I believed (as did pg, seemingly) that the web would eventually overtake desktop software. Fast forward seven years, and some of the biggest names in software (Instagram, Lyft) have completely abandoned the web for "desktop" (really, native) software. That so much code ships directly to mobile devices says a lot about the power of centralized app stores and truly sandboxed install…

Fast forward seven years, and some of the biggest names in software (Instagram, Lyft) have completely abandoned the web for "desktop" (really, native) software.

But don't those software only work by connecting to their cloud servers? Could you use Instagram if Instagram Ltd turned off their servers? That means it's inherently web software.

Re: Microsoft is Dead (2007)

#102

Post by 72deluxe »

gaius wrote: post #53
eldavido wrote: post #10

It's really interesting how in 2007, I believed (as did pg, seemingly) that the web would eventually overtake desktop software. Fast forward seven years, and some of the biggest names in software (Instagram, Lyft) have completely abandoned the web for "desktop" (really, native) software. That so much code ships directly to mobile devices says a lot about the power of centralized app stores and truly sandboxed install…

It is not surprising at all. "The Cloud" is really "the mainframe" and "native software" is really "client-server". The cycle takes 10 years or so but once you've seen a few you'll realize that the same things come round again and again. The only progress is through better hardware. Software guys, with their (our) fascination for the new and shiny and disdain for "legacy code" means we just reinvent the wheel over an…

I was only thinking this yesterday. It is very very true. All of it is client-server, just with different transport protocols. In the end, it is just interfaces to databases basically!

Re: Microsoft is Dead (2007)

#104

Post by 72deluxe »

EpicEng wrote: post #81
simonh wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People were saying that about BlackBerry right up until a few years ago. Where are the true mobile versions of Office or Outlook? When will Windows 8+ become anything other than a painful mess for ordinary users? Will anyone ever ship a Metro app anyone cares about? The old Microsoft isn't part of the computing platform of the future, mobile and services, but the server division is. For the division Nadella is from,…

Do they need a mobile version, really? I wouldn't use it at work, and we all seem to get along with the native versions just fine. It's the corporate clientele that pays the big bucks for these products, and I'm not aware of them clamoring for a mobile version. (PS, I've only actually worked at startups which have grown into larger companies. At no time did I or anyone else I was aware of feel the need for mobile Exc…

That's true. Although the parent is right that everyone hates Windows 8+ and nobody cares about Metro apps in truth, the big money is made in the enterprise space. Windows Server, SQL Server and Exchange are huge. People think that everyone could install a Linux box and migrate but it isn't that easy. Give a Windows admin a Linux box and see how dumbfounded he will be.

The iPad made a splash in the consumer world and perhaps in the BYOD world a bit but you don't really see people doing real work on them or ditching their desktops to use them. Great for consuming, not for creating (unless you enjoy struggling). I think as long as Microsoft caters to the enterprise market and move away from attempting to force a mobile UI on a desktop, things will go swimmingly for them.

Having said that, Windows 8 on a Surface is a joy to use! Just not on a desktop without having to fling your mouse all over the place to get things to appear.

Re: Microsoft is Dead (2007)

#105

Post by 72deluxe »

LeicaLatte wrote: post #48

Pretty terrible title considering Xbox 360 had taken off in 2006. Not one mention of Xbox in the whole post, indicating how much PG is out of touch. Xbox took gaming to next level, especially online gaming and managed to build a great ecosystem for games. The younger ones, in the last line, are all actually playing on Xbox. Microsoft has greater identification among younger people as brand than say, Apple given their…

Gamers are fickle. Enterprise not so much.

Pulling out all of your infrastructure and software systems and logical processes and replacing it is hard. Swapping your console and signing up to another service is not.

Just an observation.

Re: Microsoft is Dead (2007)

#106

Post by 72deluxe »

ajcarpy2005 wrote: post #75

Microsoft is lumbering and beurocratic but they do actually ship a lot of code and support the developer community. Xbox is also very successful obviously. Windows 8 was a huge flop in most people's opinion due to terrible user interface, despite the welcome creation of a Windows app store. They still have a lot of momentum behind them because of all the PC applications that only work with Windows. It's an interestin…

The strange thing is that with Windows XP, you could go online and search for software from within it. You could "get software" from within XP (somewhere in the Control Panel I think?)

Perhaps it didn't take off due to the lack of wide-ranging Internet connectivity at the time. But they did at least attempt an online shop/store at the time. But everyone forgets this.

Re: Microsoft is Dead (2007)

#107

Post by gaius »

72deluxe wrote: post #102
gaius wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is not surprising at all. "The Cloud" is really "the mainframe" and "native software" is really "client-server". The cycle takes 10 years or so but once you've seen a few you'll realize that the same things come round again and again. The only progress is through better hardware. Software guys, with their (our) fascination for the new and shiny and disdain for "legacy code" means we just reinvent the wheel over an…

I was only thinking this yesterday. It is very very true. All of it is client-server, just with different transport protocols. In the end, it is just interfaces to databases basically!

Yep, there are "forms" (interfaces for entering data) and "reports" (interfaces for extracting data) and that's really it as far as 99% of apps go. Even massively complicated things like Amazon are really just a form for you to say what you want, and a report they run in the warehouse to tell them what to pack. There's nothing to it that would be unfamiliar to a programmer from the '70s.

Re: Microsoft is Dead (2007)

#108

Post by 72deluxe »

valleyer wrote: post #62
Beltiras wrote: post #42

I predicted Apple's death some months after Steve Jobs died. Why? Two things (both of them decisions of the CEO): Plastic iPhones and the iPad mini (both products Jobs had resisted) and the more damning fact that for the first time a dividend of a serious size was paid ( http://investor.apple.com/dividends.cfm ). Jobs was adamant about growing the warchest. His assumption was that if a stockholder thought his/her inv…

Jobs resisted plastic iPhones? Did they have to drug him to get him to introduce the iPhone 3G and 3GS?

I'm perhaps not a reliable source, but I will say Yes.

Or perhaps No?

There's a lot of plastic on a Mac. Look at the G3 desktop.

Re: Microsoft is Dead (2007)

#109

Post by 72deluxe »

gaius wrote: post #107
72deluxe wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was only thinking this yesterday. It is very very true. All of it is client-server, just with different transport protocols. In the end, it is just interfaces to databases basically!

Yep, there are "forms" (interfaces for entering data) and "reports" (interfaces for extracting data) and that's really it as far as 99% of apps go. Even massively complicated things like Amazon are really just a form for you to say what you want, and a report they run in the warehouse to tell them what to pack. There's nothing to it that would be unfamiliar to a programmer from the '70s.

Even better, Amazon don't need to get a physical report but use hand-held devices.

So, clearly the plan is: 1. Write a good database (as Oracle say "the database is the application") 2. Put a dummy interface on it (RESTful HTTP anyone?) 3. Write a native client for each platform (or maybe a web based one if you want endless testing and pain) 4. Profit? (Or perhaps running costs... and no profit)

Weirdly, they recycle this concept again and again as something ground-breaking and wonderfully new but this is 99% of apps, as you say.

Re: Microsoft is Dead (2007)

#110

Post by sharemywin »

LeicaLatte wrote: post #48

Pretty terrible title considering Xbox 360 had taken off in 2006. Not one mention of Xbox in the whole post, indicating how much PG is out of touch. Xbox took gaming to next level, especially online gaming and managed to build a great ecosystem for games. The younger ones, in the last line, are all actually playing on Xbox. Microsoft has greater identification among younger people as brand than say, Apple given their…

The XBOX also cannibalized PC sales. Pre-XBox you bought a PC to play the latest games every 2 years. Now you buy an Xbox.
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