5/5. Looks like I choose the right thing to do each time... except... which run should I be calling :)
Dataset: Ten Years of NFL Plays Analyzed, Visualized, Quizzified
21–30 of 40 posts
Re: Dataset: Ten Years of NFL Plays Analyzed, Visualized, Quizzified
#22Do coaches have access to real-time data on the field or in the cooridnator's box? If so, if they followed the datasets exactly, would the results reverse themselves over time due to adjustments by offense or vice versa?
Re: Dataset: Ten Years of NFL Plays Analyzed, Visualized, Quizzified
#23If you're willing to limit yourself to the last five years, you can avoid the pain of parsing those free-form text descriptions with nflgame[1] or nfldb[2]. Disclaimer: I am the author of those tools. We've been slowly building up a small community of people using it. In fact, I'm currently in a small fantasy playoff league that's running off nflgame. They also include live updates while games are playing. I'd be cur…
OP here. That is awesome. I'd definitely recommend people use this over the download at the bottom of the blog post, it's really painful to parse the free text (there's a lot of weird edge cases). I'll add a link to this stuff in the post. edit: clarity update: link added to post
> update: link added to post
Thank you so much for helping to spread the word. I really appreciate it!
Re: Dataset: Ten Years of NFL Plays Analyzed, Visualized, Quizzified
#24This sounds really good and NFL teams would definitely want something like this, but even coaches would wary about using mostly data.
For example, let's say you are the coach of the Patriots and you have been running the ball very successfully the past few games, even winning games because of your running game.
And it's 4th down and 2 yards to go against the Broncos.
The data says, run the ball. Especially since you have done it well in the past. However, you forgot to take into account the stud defensive tackle that has just started playing really well for the Broncos. So, you try to run the ball and you lose the game.
This is just one example of the inability of data to deal with match-ups and schemes.
As both a person who likes data and coached football, I would love the integration of the two, but football has too many variables.
If you have all this data, you are actually going to make the wrong decision because the matchup is bad for your team.
Matchups and schemes trump data.
Re: Dataset: Ten Years of NFL Plays Analyzed, Visualized, Quizzified
#25Hey guys, I did this a few months ago. At least attempted to organize the data from the descriptions on Advanced NFL Stats. (https://github.com/jackschultz/nfl-data). Turns out there were tons of special cases. Just curious as to how you decided to organize the data.
Re: Dataset: Ten Years of NFL Plays Analyzed, Visualized, Quizzified
#26If you're willing to limit yourself to the last five years, you can avoid the pain of parsing those free-form text descriptions with nflgame[1] or nfldb[2]. Disclaimer: I am the author of those tools. We've been slowly building up a small community of people using it. In fact, I'm currently in a small fantasy playoff league that's running off nflgame. They also include live updates while games are playing. I'd be cur…
I like your username.
Re: Dataset: Ten Years of NFL Plays Analyzed, Visualized, Quizzified
#27Numberfire (www.numberfire.com) may have this data, if not more, for their fantasy football tool.
Re: Dataset: Ten Years of NFL Plays Analyzed, Visualized, Quizzified
#28If you're willing to limit yourself to the last five years, you can avoid the pain of parsing those free-form text descriptions with nflgame[1] or nfldb[2]. Disclaimer: I am the author of those tools. We've been slowly building up a small community of people using it. In fact, I'm currently in a small fantasy playoff league that's running off nflgame. They also include live updates while games are playing. I'd be cur…
I don't want to hijack from the OP, just want to point out that these are both awesome. Seriously, as a a data geek and huge NFL fan, great work to both of you.
Re: Dataset: Ten Years of NFL Plays Analyzed, Visualized, Quizzified
#29I am going to a group discussion tomorrow about first-refusal rights in the NFL and happened to do a brief naive analysis of extra point vs 2 point conversions earlier today. In brief, the EV of a 2 point conversion was .91 while an extra point was .99. That said, for every 19 extra point attempts there was only one two point conversion attempt. Frankly, I am all for variance so I am rooting for the more ambitious two-point attempt.
Re: Dataset: Ten Years of NFL Plays Analyzed, Visualized, Quizzified
#30Do coaches have access to real-time data on the field or in the cooridnator's box? If so, if they followed the datasets exactly, would the results reverse themselves over time due to adjustments by offense or vice versa?
There is some game theory involved. If everyone ALWAYS ran for two point conversions, the defense could just ignore the pass and put 11 in the box and stuff the run.
The its most likely that the optimal solution is a mixed strategy; you're going to need to mix it up to keep defenses honest.