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Apple Reports First Quarter Results

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Re: Apple Reports First Quarter Results

#91

Post by 37prime »

nailer wrote: post #18
loso wrote: post #4

Apple after hours are down 6%. Analyst do not like the short term stock growth prospects.

Analysts were all totally bullish - http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/technology/apple-shar... and http://appleinsider.com/articles/14/01/27/earnings-preview-w... and any result older than the last hour for 'Apple earnings' on Google. The iPhone numbers missed expectation, and as Apple's main product it didn't look good. http://www.businessinsider.com/apple-q1-earnings-2014-1 EPS, Mac and iPad all did well.

How in the world anyone should rely on analysts’ expectations? These analysts were just guessing and almost all of them were guessing wrong in the past. It is akin to predicting to the scores for NFL Football game.

Re: Apple Reports First Quarter Results

#92

Post by Diamons »

patrickaljord wrote: post #73
benihana wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's funny. Every year, since 2007 I've heard this argument, that the market isn't big enough and every year: record growth and profits. No but seriously. This year is the year that Apple's iPhone success catches up to them. "Apple's iPhone business is finally going to fail this year" is the new " this is the year of the Linux desktop"

No one says Apple products are going to fail this year, relax. Most people on earth still don't have a smartphone and so Apple and Samsung will keep on making record revenues and profits until either a better competitor appears or the market gets saturated. Neither will happen any time soon but it's obvious that no market can keep on growing that way for too long. As for the "this is the year of the Linux desktop", t…

Anyone that thinks Linux is going to take over the consumer computer market anytime soon needs to go outside more often.

Re: Apple Reports First Quarter Results

#93

Post by jsz0 »

jmduke wrote: post #31

The magic paragraph: The Company sold 51 million iPhones, an all-time quarterly record, compared to 47.8 million in the year-ago quarter. Apple also sold 26 million iPads during the quarter, also an all-time quarterly record, compared to 22.9 million in the year-ago quarter. The Company sold 4.8 million Macs, compared to 4.1 million in the year-ago quarter. If I were to play armchair quarterback, I'd say that iPhones…

> iPhones are reaching saturation

I would agree Apple's current/last-generation iPhone pricing/sizing/models have hit saturation. If they offer a larger iPhone 6 and perhaps push the 5C downmarket to be a competitive unsubsidized device they will sell a ton of iPhones. I suspect we will see new iPhones (much?) earlier than Fall 2014 this time around.

Re: Apple Reports First Quarter Results

#94

Post by minimax »

Nrsolis wrote: post #75
minimax wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

short a low beta stock, hedge that position, short the higher beta stock, and hedge that position. That just sounds like gibberish TBH...

What part didn't make sense? If you're not familiar with "the greeks" as they relate to tradable securities, then why worry about hedging at all? Just buy and hold.

He is a retail trader. He's going to have to have a margin balance larger than "almost zero" to put together whatever sort of position you have in mind unless you're just talking about buying far out of the money puts.

Re: Apple Reports First Quarter Results

#95

Post by Nrsolis »

encoderer wrote: post #77
mdemare wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Shorting and buying put options are not the same thing.

Sorry man, but this is just incorrect. Taking a short position on a security is a strategy . Buying Puts is a tactic . Short Selling is also a tactic . Both accomplish the same goal of holding a short position -- making money when the price drops. If you want to take a short position, you can buy Puts. And to wit, if you're a retail investor wanting a short position, this is most often how you'd do it. Trading the de…

No sir. You are wrong.

"Going short" a security has a very specific meaning in the equities market. Same with "going long".

And buying puts is NOT the same thing. You've completely forgotten about the concept of premium and time value when pricing an option. For one thing, options are sold at MANY price levels (strike prices) and expiration dates.

Seriously man, with all due respect, you're so mistaken its scary. One of my colleagues designed the NYSE trading network and back-office trade clearing systems. This is how I earn my living. I'll bet you your 401(k) you can't get a floor trader to endorse that explanation you just gave. It's so wrong that I'm only commenting to give other people a chance to learn from your mistake.

Guys like you are how guys like me make money.

Re: Apple Reports First Quarter Results

#96

Post by tcdent »

groups wrote: post #83
tcdent wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not trying to one-up you, but I have at least a dozen Apple products lying around the house. I've been using them most of my life, so some go a-ways back. Some are for nostalgia, like an SE, a Portable, a 12" PowerBook and my well-worn first-gen iPhone. My G4 tower was still getting regular use as a file server until pretty recently. Now that we just upgraded to Airs, I have a couple MacBook Pros waiting around for s…

I think the poster's point was that he spends a lot of money on apple products, relative to his income. To understand apple's success, one should look at how much money ordinary people with ordinary jobs spend disproportionate money on products they wouldn't otherwise. There's a graph somewhere of yearly sales figures of various cars vs the cost of those cars. There's a general exponential decline from say the toyota…

I make a little more that the parent, but still don't think of Apple products as affordable. It's almost always a stretch for me to purchase them, but I wouldn't be happy with many of the other options.

In the case of my recent upgrade, I justified it as an investment in my future. I don't consider the money I spent on it to be a purchase that I would be comfortable making frequently.

Wether you are a college student of an independent developer, the technology you use affects your success. Apple has a reputation in both industries as being above-average, further demonstrated by the loyalty many users have.

Re: Apple Reports First Quarter Results

#97

Post by Nrsolis »

minimax wrote: post #94
Nrsolis wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What part didn't make sense? If you're not familiar with "the greeks" as they relate to tradable securities, then why worry about hedging at all? Just buy and hold.

He is a retail trader. He's going to have to have a margin balance larger than "almost zero" to put together whatever sort of position you have in mind unless you're just talking about buying far out of the money puts.

Your almost zero might have fewer zeros than my almost zero.

But my point still stands: it's trivial to create a synthetic short position that's dollar neutral.

Re: Apple Reports First Quarter Results

#98

Post by [deleted] »

Nrsolis wrote: post #95
encoderer wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry man, but this is just incorrect. Taking a short position on a security is a strategy . Buying Puts is a tactic . Short Selling is also a tactic . Both accomplish the same goal of holding a short position -- making money when the price drops. If you want to take a short position, you can buy Puts. And to wit, if you're a retail investor wanting a short position, this is most often how you'd do it. Trading the de…

No sir. You are wrong. "Going short" a security has a very specific meaning in the equities market. Same with "going long". And buying puts is NOT the same thing. You've completely forgotten about the concept of premium and time value when pricing an option. For one thing, options are sold at MANY price levels (strike prices) and expiration dates. Seriously man, with all due respect, you're so mistaken its scary. One…

[deleted]

Re: Apple Reports First Quarter Results

#99

Post by Nrsolis »

Nrsolis wrote: post #95
encoderer wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry man, but this is just incorrect. Taking a short position on a security is a strategy . Buying Puts is a tactic . Short Selling is also a tactic . Both accomplish the same goal of holding a short position -- making money when the price drops. If you want to take a short position, you can buy Puts. And to wit, if you're a retail investor wanting a short position, this is most often how you'd do it. Trading the de…

No sir. You are wrong. "Going short" a security has a very specific meaning in the equities market. Same with "going long". And buying puts is NOT the same thing. You've completely forgotten about the concept of premium and time value when pricing an option. For one thing, options are sold at MANY price levels (strike prices) and expiration dates. Seriously man, with all due respect, you're so mistaken its scary. One…

Just to drive home my point:

Here's the pricing for a put option on AAPL to sell the stock at $450. Expiration 16-Jan-2015 (roughly one year from now):

40.11 Down 3.09(7.15%) Jan 27

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=AAPL160115P00450000

That price is per share. So, for roughly $4011, you can buy the right to SELL 100 shares of AAPL between now and Jan-2015 for about one hundred dollars per share LESS than what it's closing price was yesterday. Figuring in the premium, that's about $140 loss per share built into that trade yet there are 1300 OPEN contracts for just that. By your thinking, those puts should be worthless, right?

Moreover, there are already ~1300 OTHER put contracts out there at this exact same strike/expiration. What was the volume yesterday in those contracts?

15. Fifteen fucking contracts.

Hey...what about at $550 strike? 12 contracts.

Liquidity and premium are important. A lot of the time liquidity is the MOST important thing. It doesn't matter what price someone else got if you can't get that price because there isn't a counter-party to trade with.

You can't buy what someone else isn't willing to sell and you can't sell what someone ain't buying.

Re: Apple Reports First Quarter Results

#100

Post by patrickaljord »

Diamons wrote: post #92
patrickaljord wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one says Apple products are going to fail this year, relax. Most people on earth still don't have a smartphone and so Apple and Samsung will keep on making record revenues and profits until either a better competitor appears or the market gets saturated. Neither will happen any time soon but it's obvious that no market can keep on growing that way for too long. As for the "this is the year of the Linux desktop", t…

Anyone that thinks Linux is going to take over the consumer computer market anytime soon needs to go outside more often.

Yep, same thing for mac. Unless you consider smartphones to be computers (which they are) and in this case both mac and linux are taking over.
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