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Apple Reports First Quarter Results

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Re: Apple Reports First Quarter Results

#51

Post by georgemcbay »

empthought wrote: post #47
georgemcbay wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah that's a good point I hadn't thought about, and it applies to non-expandable flash ram as well since basically your data will grow to fit available space. But those issues are sort of cheating since they are basically planned obsolescence features that could trivially be solved if there were any incentive to do so. But there isn't, so more landfill generated for little actual new value.

> could trivially be solved I'm going to guess you're neither a computer hardware nor a battery engineer.

I meant solved by making the battery replaceable, even if as a service of AppleCare or whatever if not the end-consumer.

See: Teslas, which have to live by the same rules as everyone else when it comes to battery life issues but whose solution isn't 'throw your car out when it won't hold a charge anymore'.

Re: Apple Reports First Quarter Results

#52

Post by this_user »

JoelSutherland wrote: post #43
Perceval wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This happens every single time Apple gives an earnings report. AAPL rises before the report and falls after the report. If I had the money I would short the stock every single time.

That would be a terrible plan. Apple stock raises on average 2.1% the day after an earnings announcement: http://www.thestreet.com/story/11505061/1/where-will-apple-t...

Not necessarily. AAPL has been trading differntly since the fall of 2012. Whereas it used to spike on earnings, it now tends to sell of. When using statistical data like this to make actual investment decisions, you should always look at the behaviour for different time frames and see if it stays the same for the most recent intervals.

Re: Apple Reports First Quarter Results

#53

Post by georgemcbay »

baddox wrote: post #45
georgemcbay wrote: post #22

Phones and tablets are very close to the point that desktop/laptops got to a few years back where unless there is some major disruptive technology introduced (eg. batteries with 100%+ efficiency over current ones) on top of them the one you bought this year is pretty much good enough to keep for the next many years, until it breaks somehow. There will still be a market of ultra-fashion-conscious buyers who really nee…

I don't think that's true. Even without significant software improvements, the iPad could noticeably benefit from a generation or two of faster storage and wireless technologies (both LAN and WAN).

I agree, that's why I said they were close to this point... not quite there yet.

I think faster WAN technologies will end up being gated by our terrible cell carriers though, who are already fucking up widescale LTE and generally doing a bad job of anything other than overcharging for poor service and getting away with it due to massive industry price fixing and collusion.

Re: Apple Reports First Quarter Results

#54

Post by encoderer »

Nrsolis wrote: post #41
Perceval wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This happens every single time Apple gives an earnings report. AAPL rises before the report and falls after the report. If I had the money I would short the stock every single time.

That's not how shorting works. You short the stock and NOW YOU HAVE THE MONEY but you OWE the stock to whomever you borrowed it from. If the stock goes up, you lose. If it goes down, you use the cash you have to buy it back and keep the rest.

It's like you understand the theory but not the practice of how this works?

In reality, you "short" a stock by purchasing a Put option. For example, these are made up numbers, but if you thought Apple would tumble on earnings and wanted to short it, you'd buy, say, $525 put options. This is a contract to sell 100 shares of apple at $525. It's worthless if they trade above $525 but if it drops below, you're in the money.

Suppose you pay $150 per contract, and you short 1000 shares -- 10 contracts. The most you can lose is $1500. And if the stock tumbled down to, say, $475, you would make $525-$475 = $50 * 1000 shares = $50,000, or $48,500 profit.

But the most you can ever lose is what you paid for the options.

Re: Apple Reports First Quarter Results

#55

Post by bananacurve »

georgemcbay wrote: post #51
empthought wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> could trivially be solved I'm going to guess you're neither a computer hardware nor a battery engineer.

I meant solved by making the battery replaceable, even if as a service of AppleCare or whatever if not the end-consumer. See: Teslas, which have to live by the same rules as everyone else when it comes to battery life issues but whose solution isn't 'throw your car out when it won't hold a charge anymore'.

Apple products hold value amazingly well because they are well built. My 04 iBook is still in service. Cheap crap will fill landfills.

Re: Apple Reports First Quarter Results

#56

Post by minimax »

Nrsolis wrote: post #41
Perceval wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This happens every single time Apple gives an earnings report. AAPL rises before the report and falls after the report. If I had the money I would short the stock every single time.

That's not how shorting works. You short the stock and NOW YOU HAVE THE MONEY but you OWE the stock to whomever you borrowed it from. If the stock goes up, you lose. If it goes down, you use the cash you have to buy it back and keep the rest.

Yeah but you can't short anything without a margin balance. So for a retail account you need something like $100 in margin balance for every $300 of the short position. You can't open a trading account with zero balance and just start short selling things to raise cash.

Re: Apple Reports First Quarter Results

#58

Post by mdemare »

encoderer wrote: post #54
Nrsolis wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not how shorting works. You short the stock and NOW YOU HAVE THE MONEY but you OWE the stock to whomever you borrowed it from. If the stock goes up, you lose. If it goes down, you use the cash you have to buy it back and keep the rest.

It's like you understand the theory but not the practice of how this works? In reality, you "short" a stock by purchasing a Put option. For example, these are made up numbers, but if you thought Apple would tumble on earnings and wanted to short it, you'd buy, say, $525 put options. This is a contract to sell 100 shares of apple at $525. It's worthless if they trade above $525 but if it drops below, you're in the mon…

Shorting and buying put options are not the same thing.

Re: Apple Reports First Quarter Results

#59

Post by mdemare »

Perceval wrote: post #33
mdemare wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're not priced as a growth stock. P/E is about 13, and that's including their huge pile of cash. Average P/E for the S&P is 19.

Not to mention that before the iPhone Apple's P/E never dropped below 20 and was usually hovering around 40.

Apple's cash pile is 1/3 of their market cap. That means that is they'd use it to buy their own shares at the current price (they can't, they need to pay taxes on most of it first) their P/E ratio would drop to about 9.

Re: Apple Reports First Quarter Results

#60

Post by baddox »

Perceval wrote: post #44
Nrsolis wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not how shorting works. You short the stock and NOW YOU HAVE THE MONEY but you OWE the stock to whomever you borrowed it from. If the stock goes up, you lose. If it goes down, you use the cash you have to buy it back and keep the rest.

I don't have the money to lose if the stock goes up.

And that just means you aren't actually that confident about your prediction, just like the rest of the market.
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