Earlier quoted context omitted.
The 1849 gold rush was a terrible idea and cost most people more than they got back. Most startups also fail. I feel like that's not a good way to run an economy.
1 9 8 4 rot
Fixed, thanks
Will robots steal our jobs? The humble loom suggests not
41–47 of 47 posts
Re: Will robots steal our jobs? The humble loom suggests not
#42One of the arguments of this article is that as technology stabilizes we will be able to demand higher pay. Technology will likely not stabilize.
Internet technology has stabilized already: we're still using HTML, HTTP, javascript, etc. The Space Jam website from 1996 still loads in a browser. Most servers and clients still use IPv4. Etc.
Re: Will robots steal our jobs? The humble loom suggests not
#43"In the 19th century, the maturation and standardization of weaving technology finally brought long-overdue raises to textile workers." Wow. Way to completely write out of the story the PEOPLE who fought tooth-and-nail to get those raises, WaPo.... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lowell_Mill_Girls Of course, acknowledging the real struggle might seriously impact the whole "things will get better by themselves, just keep…
Consider Fred, who is paid $1 and produces $10 in value. Every employer would love to have Fred come and work for them. In fact, another employer would likely offer Fred $2 to come and generate $10. Fred, not being an idiot, takes the offer. Another employer offers Fred $3, and so on, until Fred is making ($10 - opportunitycost). In other words, Fred being way underpaid according to the value he produces is an unstab…
Thought experiments cannot be used to prove real points.
Re: Will robots steal our jobs? The humble loom suggests not
#44Earlier quoted context omitted.
To extrapolate on what you said: "which will in turn allow people to live with much less money", I think this is absolutely true but the endgame is that most things will be nearly free but people will have no money to buy them. For example computers are effectively free now, they are widely available on Craigslist for under $100 and capable smartphones are bundled into most cellular plans. Flat screen TVs, for all th…
My friend, you are an incredible optimist and I hope this is our future. But history shows that power gained is never relinquished without a vicious struggle. How do you think a non-violent revolt can succeed in a society where mercenaries keep the peace? Furthermore, what if these mercenaries are autonomous systems which require very few skilled individuals to operate? Surely they would simply work for the highest b…
"But history shows that power gained is never relinquished without a vicious struggle."
People say this, but it's not true. Obviously there are countless cases where violent struggle was used, and quite possibly in many of those cases violent struggle was required (maybe even all), but there have clearly been cases of individuals and groups giving up power. Sometimes in pursuit of ideals, sometimes out of fear that violence might otherwise follow.
Re: Will robots steal our jobs? The humble loom suggests not
#45Earlier quoted context omitted.
Keep in mind that The Washington Post was recently acquired by Jeff Bezos. This article makes much more sense when viewed in the light of Amazon's current PR problems due to their treatment of poorly paid warehouse workers. They are desperately trying to automate as fast as possible, and this piece tries its best to spin it as a win-win for everyone.
The idea that Bezos has already turned the WaPo into Amazon's personal PR factory seems highly unlikely. Esp. when you see articles like this: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-switch/wp/2014/01/16...
Bezos wouldn't need to "turn the WaPo into Amazon's personal PR factory" in order to get this published though. You don't have to have a massive conspiracy to get a story published. Everyone in PR knows that.
All he'd have to do is mention the research to a few writers. If you're a writer and the owner of the company mentions a story that sounds interesting to you, you might be just a little etra inclined to cover it.
The first season of House of Cards is a nice illustration of how the combination of powerful people and ambitous writers can lead to a "journalistic" PR campaign without any mass conspiracy. Granted, it's fictional. But it's a plausible mechanism.
Re: Will robots steal our jobs? The humble loom suggests not
#46> as the market for cotton cloth matured in the mid-20th century, further automation no longer generated such increases in demand and new technology slowly eliminated jobs in the textile industry. This seems to be a counterpoint to his thesis: Technology does indeed create unemployment if all demand has already been satisfied. His point should thus be stated with a caveat: Technology does not destroy jobs as long as…
"Demand" can be a bit of a fuzzy thing. For instance, all those people who were now had "enough" clothes and were saving money from the lower prices were instead buying other things, creating increased demand for some other sector of the economy. Which, presumably, would eventually lead to more jobs elsewhere.
I think a better moral for the story is to expect technology to have significant local effects on employment in particular industries (either up or down), but the evidence for the economy as a whole seems to be much more neutral.
Re: Will robots steal our jobs? The humble loom suggests not
#47Earlier quoted context omitted.
To extrapolate on what you said: "which will in turn allow people to live with much less money", I think this is absolutely true but the endgame is that most things will be nearly free but people will have no money to buy them. For example computers are effectively free now, they are widely available on Craigslist for under $100 and capable smartphones are bundled into most cellular plans. Flat screen TVs, for all th…
My friend, you are an incredible optimist and I hope this is our future. But history shows that power gained is never relinquished without a vicious struggle. How do you think a non-violent revolt can succeed in a society where mercenaries keep the peace? Furthermore, what if these mercenaries are autonomous systems which require very few skilled individuals to operate? Surely they would simply work for the highest b…
Ya "how do you think a non-violent revolt can succeed in a society where mercenaries keep the peace?" is a good question and I was never sure either until I watched a show on FSTV called "How to Start a Revolution" about Gene Sharp and his book "From Dictatorship to Democracy":
http://www.cnn.com/2012/06/23/world/gene-sharp-revolutionary...
It's hard for me to say what the gist of it is, but if I had to try, it would be that nonviolence is a powerful weapon against totalitarianism because it's covert. If all the people communicate simultaneously online, and there's no leader, and they reach a consensus that they're going to convince the military and police not to stop them (beginning with persuading servicemen in their own families), then nobody stops them on the day they revolt. So the real struggle happens in the weeks and months before the revolution in the hearts and minds of the institutions that prop up those in power. If the revolutionaries find themselves throwing rocks at police on revolt day, then they've probably already lost. Unfortunately we only hear one side of this on mainstream news, specifically to keep us demoralized and in the dark about how nonviolent revolution works.
Of course in the western world, we're all democracies already, so we may never have a revolution like this. I guess I'm most concerned about voiceless democracy, where as you said capital trumps humanity, and they subvert us all into working toward their goals instead of ours. I really worry about people being perceived as a "cost" on society, because it frames any argument for the social welfare in a bad light in people's minds. And I totally agree with you that it's getting progressively worse with machines lowering the value of labor. I hope some clever people meditate on what may end up being the problem of our time and think of a way out of this mess!