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2014 Gates Annual Letter: Myths that block progress for the poor

annualletter.gatesfoundation.org

261–270 of 317 posts

Re: 2014 Gates Annual Letter: Myths that block progress for the poor

#261
post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Two points: I still perceive India as a "shithole". Whereas China's elite has used its newfound wealth to finance widespread infrastructure and especially sanitation projects, India's has not, not on a mass countrywide scale. Fallen prey to coordination problems is the best gloss you can put on it but I still find it scandalous. Second, South America's recent progress has mostly been under governments of the left, us…

Right. And of course you have countries like Chile, which has the highest GDP per capita of any south american country and probably the most stable economy, all after adopting free market principals from Friedman. And some of these countries have grown, but to what extent? Where would Brazil be if it dropped it's insanely regulated state and bloated beauracracy and freed up its people? These countries are all still h…

Chile is a terrible example of this; it has one of the higher levels of income inequality on that side of the continent and privatized education and health care. Private education in Chile is appalling; wealthy Chileans send their kids to study to the US or EU and the middle class that can't afford education sends them to Argentina or Brazil. Capital is concentrated on a few hands with a strong dependency on basic commodities exports with low added value. It's better than many places, but the GDP figures don't reflect the realities of a substantial amount of its population.

Re: 2014 Gates Annual Letter: Myths that block progress for the poor

#262
post #32
post #7

This is a fascinating letter that helps combat some of the "doom and gloom" that's so prevalent in... well, everything. I kept coming back to one thought while reading this: why are people so mistaken about Africa in particular? The article covers misconceptions all over the place, but it keeps coming back to Africa, and it seems that the disparity between what people think and what's actually the case is far larger…

It's not totally wrong about Africa. HIV hit Africa like a sledgehammer, and stopped development cold for 20 odd years. 10 years ago, people had seen Sub Saharan Africa going backwards for a decade. Plus, that was the 20 years when everyone looking for cheap labor went to China. Now, they're much better at preventing and treating HIV. And China is going to Africa for cheap labor. So things are getting much better.

Also, Africa had the 3rd biggest war in human history[1], which probably didn't help development much. There was a major genocide and assorted other significant wars, all of which have been pretty much forgotten in the developed world.

[1] In terms of deaths: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Congo_War

Re: 2014 Gates Annual Letter: Myths that block progress for the poor

#263
post #235

It's an excellent piece. I'll admit to being a bit confused by the assertion, however: > "letting children die now so they don’t starve later—doesn’t actually work, thank goodness. It may be counterintuitive, but the countries with the most deaths have among the fastest-growing populations in the world. This is because the women in these countries tend to have the most births, too." I spent five months in Kenya, and…

The (late) great Sam Kinison gave the solution to world hunger over 20 years ago: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0q4o58pKwA#t=64

Sorry if you're trying to be funny, but that is disgusting.

Re: 2014 Gates Annual Letter: Myths that block progress for the poor

#264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the late 20th century decoupling of energy consumption from economic growth. If you bothered reading my post and links, I've gone into extensive length on how economic decoupling hasn't happened and that the observed increase in efficiency is fully consistent with complex systems / dissipative systems theory. The problem with technical capital is that it depreciates rapidly. While some Roman infrastructure remains st…

I appreciate the dialog you're already having, but I thought you might like to know that some of the statements you're making are causing my skepticism of the whole argument to increase, not decrease. I'm not knowledgeable enough to weigh in, but it might be useful for you to know what arguments work well and which don't. Here's what I noticed in your reply that I found myself questioning your authenticity: 1. Your f…

Your first sentence is long and diminutive to the reader.

He specifically reiterated without support an assertion of a fact I'd addressed specifically, at length, and with considerable real world data. A finer point: I wasn't dismissing him specifically, but his actions. I'm not here to make friends or even particularly to persuade, but to expand my own understanding of a subject I find of absolutely crucial importance. Occasionally I find merits to discussing matters with those holding opposing viewpoints.

Some guy came up with this concept called "Graham's Hierarchy of Disagreement". You should check it out:

http://blog.garrytan.com/grahams-hierarchy-of-disagreement-h...

As to decoupling: I'm not aware of anyone who's specifically looked at GDP/quad data, but I had, using public data (the blog post consists of a set of graphs with links to the original from Wolfram+Alpha), and a bit of commentary. You're welcome to agree or disagree with specifics, though an ad hominem without any other basis for disagreement doesn't do you much credit. You're at levels 2 & 3 of the hierarchy. bcoates managed to attain level 3.

Though as a DDG fan I've got a newfound softness for quacks.

Your first sentence includes a number of terms that demand unpacking.

Which? "Economic decoupling" or "capital depreciation"?

First: yes, this is a complex area, it's got a bit of its own language. That's typical of any advanced field. That said it's not overly complex, though you've got to be willing to take and bin a fair amount of conventional wisdom.

For more on decoupling, associated with resources in general, see:

http://newsroom.unsw.edu.au/news/science-technology/true-raw...

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2013/08/28/1220362110

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decoupling

Briefly on peak minerals:

⚫ Exhaustion of any extractive resource follows a curve similar to that M. King Hubbert demostrated for oil in the 1940s and 1950s, accurately predicting US peak production in 1970, and a global peak between 2000 and 2010[1]. Data are a little hazy on global production yet, but it's clearly been flat despite massive increases in market prices and capital expenditures by oil companies. See Shell Oil's profit warning issued just this week. You're welcome to read my take at http://reddit.com/r/dredmorbius or The New York Times, whichever you find less quackish: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/18/business/energy-environmen...

⚫ Mining costs increase with falling ore grades. Heinberg cites this OilDrum piece: http://anz.theoildrum.com/node/6974 "As a rule of thumb, when the quality of the ore drops, the amount of energy required to extract the resource rises". The rationale: lower grade means more overburden and tailings to remove -- you've got to mine deeper, or excavate a large area, or filter more seawater, or go through whatever it is that's your source for the mineral.

I'm aware of a few specific lower bounds on ore concentrations. Estimates are that uranium ores must be at least 200ppm for net positive production. See: http://www.stormsmith.nl/i05.html and generally: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_uranium

Leibig's Law is a separate observation to the issue of peak minerals -- it's not describing how or when minerals peak, but what the effect of their peaking is on the remainder of the system. For a critical mineral (say, phosphorus) to peak would have dramatic effects throughout the system. Having enough cobalt or gallium for iPhones won't do much if you can't grow food to feed the iPhone user.

________________________________

Notes:

1. Generally, Wikipedia, "Peak Minerals" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_minerals#Peak_minerals_an...

Re: 2014 Gates Annual Letter: Myths that block progress for the poor

#265

Is it just me, or is there some bias in the before & after photos? Mexico city "before" is just one dwelling versus a full street in the "after". Nairobi "before" is taken when most of the city was dark due to clouds, whereas the "after" is a bright, sunny day. Similarly, Shanghai "before" looks like it was taken with an unfavourable filter on a hazy day. I'm not doubting that the world is improving, especially in th…

Yes, that also put me off somewhat. There's an air of dishonesty about it.

Re: 2014 Gates Annual Letter: Myths that block progress for the poor

#266
post #262
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not totally wrong about Africa. HIV hit Africa like a sledgehammer, and stopped development cold for 20 odd years. 10 years ago, people had seen Sub Saharan Africa going backwards for a decade. Plus, that was the 20 years when everyone looking for cheap labor went to China. Now, they're much better at preventing and treating HIV. And China is going to Africa for cheap labor. So things are getting much better.

Also, Africa had the 3rd biggest war in human history[1], which probably didn't help development much. There was a major genocide and assorted other significant wars, all of which have been pretty much forgotten in the developed world. [1] In terms of deaths: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Congo_War

[deleted]

Re: 2014 Gates Annual Letter: Myths that block progress for the poor

#267
post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you (an armchair critic?) assume that the Gates, with direct data and experience, are wrong and overlooking reality with their statement? I'm pretty sure they have available decent data showing them overall progress and are not visiting one development and making a blanket extrapolation based on that.

My comment was that he makes a statement that says "I can't see poor people, which means they must not be here". I tried to clarify my comment and have an armchair critic in you disputing me, when you could have googled it to prove me wrong. But here you go, http://data.worldbank.org/country/mexico Poverty as a % of population in mexico has increased from 47% to 52% according to the world bank.

I'm just suggesting that they be given the benefit of the doubt given their line and depth of work, and the understanding that you're taking the quote so literally. This piece about myths has been written to reach many people so it's trying to make a fair and convincing argument without detail that's too extreme.

Thanks for that World Bank link - nicely designed site and great data. Do you know why the graph isn't linked for more recent years? Is it speculative data?

I looked for a couple more sources and they had current poverty at about 44-45%. Wikipedia's Povery in Mexico page:

"Current figures estimate that at least 44.2 percent of the population lives under poverty."

And another page:

"Extreme poverty, on the other hand, clearly declined. Both the number and percentage of Mexicans living in extreme poverty fell between 2010 and 2012, from 13.0 million (11.3 percent) in 2010 to 11.5 million (9.8 percent) in 2012."

Re: 2014 Gates Annual Letter: Myths that block progress for the poor

#268

Yesterday I read the Oxfam report that 85 people own half of the world's wealth. http://www.oxfam.org/en/pressroom/pressrelease/2014-01-20/ri... Now this is amazing and simple fact. This shows we have completely failed at distribution of wealth. If we could fix this many many problem will vanish. Now instead of what Gates has written this extreme inequality is blocking the progress of poor.

You misquote the OXFAM claim. They actually say: The bottom half of the world’s population owns the same as the richest 85 people in the world.[1](p2 bottom) See the difference? The richest 85 people have about $1.7 trillion in wealth[2]. To put that in perspective the world stock market capitalization is $63 trillion[3], world bond market capitalization is around $100 trillion[4], world investment grade real estate…

Agreed, I made a mistake. But I appreciate that you agree that we have failed miserable at distribution of wealth and I quote you "The problem is that the bottom 50% also own much less than 1% of the world's wealth."

Re: 2014 Gates Annual Letter: Myths that block progress for the poor

#269

Yesterday I read the Oxfam report that 85 people own half of the world's wealth. http://www.oxfam.org/en/pressroom/pressrelease/2014-01-20/ri... Now this is amazing and simple fact. This shows we have completely failed at distribution of wealth. If we could fix this many many problem will vanish. Now instead of what Gates has written this extreme inequality is blocking the progress of poor.

That's not what that article says. It says that those 85 people own as much wealth as the poorest 3.5 billion people. The article and accompanying paper say that the world's richest one percent own 46% of the world's wealth - the 71M people who make more than $35K or so.

Agreed, I made a mistake and misunderstood the fact but my point that we have failed miserably at distribution of wealth remains.

Re: 2014 Gates Annual Letter: Myths that block progress for the poor

#270
post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The (late) great Sam Kinison gave the solution to world hunger over 20 years ago: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0q4o58pKwA#t=64

Sorry if you're trying to be funny, but that is disgusting.

"Don't send them food, move them out of the desert where nothing grows" might not be funny, it might not be accurate, but one could hardly call it disgusting...
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