Live data from Hacker News

Nassim Taleb: We should retire the notion of standard deviation

edge.org

101–110 of 254 posts

Re: Nassim Taleb: We should retire the notion of standard deviation

#101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah. Eliminating stdev so social scientists don't get confused is the tail wagging the dog.

maybe in an intellectual sense, but a lot more people read http://www.huffingtonpost.com/science/ than http://arxiv.org/

And a lot more people will contribute nothing of note to science. Why should we cater to the lowest common denominator again?

Re: Nassim Taleb: We should retire the notion of standard deviation

#102

So first about the article: >>The notion of standard deviation has confused hordes of scientists What an assertion! It also proved to be very useful for hordes of scientists... what about some examples of confused scientists ? >>There is no scientific reason to use it in statistical investigations in the age of the computer As someone who uses it daily I am eagerly awaiting his argument. >>Say someone just asked you…

Counterexample:

  |                           ..
  |                         .    .                 
  |    waste      |       .        .       |     stuff
  |     of        |      .          .      |       I
  |     my        |     .            .     |     don't
  |    time       |   .    stuff I'll  .   |     grok
  |               | .        read        . |       
  |(Nassim Taleb) |                        | .       
  |       .       |                        |       . 
  |______________________________________________________
          -3     -2     -1     0     1     2     3
                       standard deviations

Re: Nassim Taleb: We should retire the notion of standard deviation

#103
post #21

So first about the article: >>The notion of standard deviation has confused hordes of scientists What an assertion! It also proved to be very useful for hordes of scientists... what about some examples of confused scientists ? >>There is no scientific reason to use it in statistical investigations in the age of the computer As someone who uses it daily I am eagerly awaiting his argument. >>Say someone just asked you…

This comment was great fun to read, and I suspect that I share some of your opinions about Taleb (although mine are decaying with each day that passes since I last finished reading any of his books), but it would have been stronger as an argument if you had left off the part about him being a "vile idiot".

I particularly like Noah Smith's take on him[0]:

"Nassim Taleb is a vulgar bombastic windbag, and I like him a lot. His books do a good job of explaining some deep, important finance ideas for a general audience. He has helped popularize the notion of "skin in the game". His trolling of economists is also good for some lulz (I particularly enjoyed his coinage of the term "macrobullshitters")."

[0]http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2014/01/of-brains-and-bal...

Re: Nassim Taleb: We should retire the notion of standard deviation

#104
post #36

I really tried to get through "The Black Swan" and Taleb's writing struck me as so pretentious and self-involved that it made it impossible for me to finish. He strikes me as someone who is so desperate to be important and recognized that an assertion like this doesn't really surprise me.

Talebs problem is an intense narcissism, allied with strong intelligence, but not as strong as his narcissism would leave him to believe. So, we have to listen carefully to find his useful insights, while wading through the bombast.

Don't try to engage with him critically, but constructively, directly on the internets though, because he prefers acolytes to arguments!

Re: Nassim Taleb: We should retire the notion of standard deviation

#106

So first about the article: >>The notion of standard deviation has confused hordes of scientists What an assertion! It also proved to be very useful for hordes of scientists... what about some examples of confused scientists ? >>There is no scientific reason to use it in statistical investigations in the age of the computer As someone who uses it daily I am eagerly awaiting his argument. >>Say someone just asked you…

> The guy is a vile idiot of the worst kind: ignorant and aggressive. Your comment is a bit irritating. I don't know the author of this blog post but I think he has a couple of valid points. You seem to dislike him for some other reasons. Feel free to share them. The blog post is still perfectly reasonable. Anyway, I agree some of your comments as well, namely this: > I can give hundreds when std dev is useful and me…

>Your comment is a bit irritating. I don't know the author of this blog post but I think he has a couple of valid points. You seem to dislike him for some other reasons. Feel free to share them. The blog post is still perfectly reasonable.

Really ? You think call for substituting one of the most common use measures in science, finance, gambling etc. with some other measure which doesn't have the same crucial properties without giving any examples of one going wrong and the other being better is reasonable ? He also threw some assertions about general confusion and scientist using it because of misunderstanding in 1893. Again without any example while giving condescending analogy of someone asking you to calculating average and realizing it's not standard deviation. It's not reasonable by any standard. The reason I have very low opinion about his writing and him are his books, especially Antifragile.

>I actually agree that standard deviation is a confusing name, why do you think that's a stupid comment?

He claimed that "the confusion", things he described in previous paragraphs about scientists, PhD's and statisticians is caused by misleading name. I am not saying the name is good but implying that so many people are using it just because the name given to it in 1893 is insulting. It's basically Taleb telling scientists: "hey guys, you use this standard deviation thing because of randomish reason and not because you know what you are doing". It's very strong bold statement which undermines credibility of whole groups of scientists which he again didn't even begin to argue for. He just asserts it and continue.

Re: Nassim Taleb: We should retire the notion of standard deviation

#107
post #21

So first about the article: >>The notion of standard deviation has confused hordes of scientists What an assertion! It also proved to be very useful for hordes of scientists... what about some examples of confused scientists ? >>There is no scientific reason to use it in statistical investigations in the age of the computer As someone who uses it daily I am eagerly awaiting his argument. >>Say someone just asked you…

This comment was great fun to read, and I suspect that I share some of your opinions about Taleb (although mine are decaying with each day that passes since I last finished reading any of his books), but it would have been stronger as an argument if you had left off the part about him being a "vile idiot".

[deleted]

Re: Nassim Taleb: We should retire the notion of standard deviation

#108

Standard deviation and mean absolute deviation are both useful, but I think it's silly to suggest that we all adopt exactly one measure of variability to summarize data sets. When in doubt, make a fucking histogram.

Histograms can be misleading too, especially when the breaks are not set well.

Anything can be misleading, but in most cases a histogram conveys more information than a single number ever could.

Re: Nassim Taleb: We should retire the notion of standard deviation

#109
post #77

So first about the article: >>The notion of standard deviation has confused hordes of scientists What an assertion! It also proved to be very useful for hordes of scientists... what about some examples of confused scientists ? >>There is no scientific reason to use it in statistical investigations in the age of the computer As someone who uses it daily I am eagerly awaiting his argument. >>Say someone just asked you…

He's inflammatory. Really, really inflammatory. He also tends to write about obvious technical points so if you do pick through the morass and find the gem you'll be a bit underwhelmed. In this instance, standard deviations are obviously important statistics to compute and have many, many useful properties, sure, but Taleb rightly points out that they can be misused and I agree with him that their misuse is endemic i…

I think that's my problem. By the time I've waded through the insufferable smugness, the anecdotes and the random and meaningless attention to things I've never encountered in practice, what is left is interesting, but not nearly worth the effort.

Re: Nassim Taleb: We should retire the notion of standard deviation

#110

NNT is my intellectual superhero but the amount of hate he gets is tremendous. Please understand that NNT's biggest issues are not so much with the way statistical models are applied to economics and finance, but how social scientists sometimes feel compelled to apply them to social fields as well, which is plain unscientific, dumb, and mostly disastrous. So when you bear down on his arguments, please keep this conte…

You're making too many gross generalisations here, as does Mr Taleb. He's right that in all fields there are statistically illiterate people making huge errors, and academic theorists have been making such - and more complete - criticisms for a while now. So, there's a real issue. However, there are a good number of competent social scientists too, beyond the mediocre morass, who understand just what variable construction and limitations to statistical operations are.
Post reply on HN