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Google to Acquire Nest

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Re: Google to Acquire Nest

#551

Post by VLM »

clarky07 wrote: post #458
VLM wrote: post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To give it the fairest possible test I will take your concerns to an optimistic extreme. Given that I can set my thermostat back roughly part time, and most people work 40 hrs, and someone who can blow $300 on a thermostat probably works at least 60 hours, I will triple my theoretical savings to $36/year. Given a zero interest loan that would pay for itself in a "mere" nine years. Google products don't last nine year…

You act like products can only be purchased with a credit card. That is not in fact the case.

Actually no, I acted like at a zero percent interest rate / zero opportunity cost (which is a little weird) it would take about nine years, and at a typical 30% credit card for your average poor dude was infinity. Everyone will fit somewhere within those bounds.

A reasonable opportunity cost might be 3%, I'm too lazy to bother figuring the time till profit because nine years at zero is already too long.

Re: Google to Acquire Nest

#552

Post by VLM »

acdha wrote: post #490
VLM wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"but in much of the country people pay many hundreds of dollars every month during the winter or summer. If a smarter thermostat saves 10% of that" Not mathematically / thermodynamically possible, sorry. I live in a cooler area but not the real cold areas up north. During the recent polar vortex, which momentarily was centered over my house (and I'm not kidding) we got down to -15. (70 - -15) = delta t of 85 degrees.…

It sounds like what you really mean is that this is not a product which you benefit from, because you work from home and your house is actually continuously inhabited most days; it's an amusing combination of arrogance and naivety to assume that your lifestyle is the only valid option. Beyond that, you're completely missing the point about a smarter thermostat: the savings don't come from the temperature outside is -…

So we've got:

1) doubling is the same as an order of magnitude (or more), ah math who cares.

2) it costs the same amount to heat a house to a given temp no matter the outdoor temp (for a house built to be comfortable down to -30, heating at 40 costs almost nothing)

3) The public is stupid, far too dumb to program something, so lets prey on them with something real expensive that tries to avoid that.

4) average and peak are the same. Pick whichever advances an argument more.

5) Its OK to rip people off as long as you don't rip them off for more money than other people do.

6) I do admit you are 100% correct on the price. And given the mighty power of Google and expansion and wider availability of capital not only are you correct that the price has slightly dropped, but I suggest going further and in the long run it could drop to $100 or so, maybe lower. Fundamentally, from an electronic standpoint, the inevitable Chinese clones will probably only be $75 or so. See also #1 above, 25%, order of magnitude, who's counting.

7) Paraphrase to something like I don't like the results of your math equations, so I'll call you smug instead. Come on, you can do better than that. If we're going to go all playground here, "Your mom" me or something.

Oddly enough you haven't convinced me you're correct and I'm wrong.

Re: Google to Acquire Nest

#553

Post by 3327 »

kamaal wrote: post #528
ridgeguy wrote: post #527

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand that POV, but one would think that for $3.2B Google could have reinvented Nest ten times over. What's so unique (and protectable) about Nest that would make it worth what Google paid? Is their IP so broad and deep? Is there some fast-closing window most of us don't see? I'm boggled.

>>but one would think that for $3.2B Google could have reinvented Nest ten times over. Google is a very big company. I think they are already 50,000 employees in strength. A company so big is not very good at this 'inventing' stuff. There are likely a few engineering oasis somewhere in Google, but the bulk of the company is your ordinary mid level managers, controlling people at grass roots. Their likely goal is to c…

well said. Autonomous small engineering units are the paradigm of current and past inventing. Skunk works, phantom works, etc. All of the MBA's combined with their fancy powerpoint presentations don't amount to 2 solid engineers with a whiteboard.

Re: Google to Acquire Nest

#554

Post by VLM »

maxerickson wrote: post #409
VLM wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"but in much of the country people pay many hundreds of dollars every month during the winter or summer. If a smarter thermostat saves 10% of that" Not mathematically / thermodynamically possible, sorry. I live in a cooler area but not the real cold areas up north. During the recent polar vortex, which momentarily was centered over my house (and I'm not kidding) we got down to -15. (70 - -15) = delta t of 85 degrees.…

Lowering the thermostat during warm weather saves a larger portion of the energy for that period. The polar vortex scenario is where a thermostat can help the least. For instance, imagine a home that heats from 50 most of the time. Then it is (1-15/20)/100=25%.

The problem is that at 50 my furnace runs like 3 times a day because the house is built to be comfy down to -30, probably much worse (since it did OK at -20 last week). So you end up saving 25% of very little.

This mathematical model would work for a poorly insulated house in an area that never gets cold. So if in Atlanta the furnace is struggling at 50F outside, then this would mathematically work out. The problem of course is total annual heating bills in Atlanta probably aren't very impressive, so saving even 10% on them still wouldn't amount to much.

Re: Google to Acquire Nest

#555

Post by blueskin_ »

bdamm wrote: post #520
stevewillows wrote: post #480

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly, HVAC is a fantastic industry with plenty of room for innovation. This being said, there's far more accurate automation in industrial applications than around the home. A good example of this work is within airports and casinos. The new Vancouver Convention Centre is something worth reading up on too. For technically-inclined individuals, understanding how water, air and gas move is the ticket to a proper di…

On the contrary, get ready for the Google Home Security System!

Complete with hidden NSA silent remote deactivation codes.

"Steve is out of the house" shared publicly on google plus.

Re: Google to Acquire Nest

#556

Post by jonlucc »

justincormack wrote: post #303
wmf wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Realistically Nest is a luxury product and the rest is just rationalization. But luxury gadgets is a legitimate market.

Yes, but Apple's market not Google's...

I don't think this is strictly true. I believe rich and poor use Google search. Perhaps iOS and Android have different markets, but this acquisition will bring former iOS guys into the Google realm.

Re: Google to Acquire Nest

#557

Post by jonlucc »

daughart wrote: post #176
nostromo wrote: post #93

I'm happy for Nest but sad for myself, given the smoke detector was my Christmas gift last year. Previously I would look to YouTube as an acquisition done right. But after the kerfuffle around G+ integration, I no longer feel that way. If I have to sign in with my G+ account to manage my smoke alarm, it's going directly into the rubbish bin. If Apple had bought Nest, on the other hand, I'd feel very differently.

You don't want your G+ friends automatically notified when you burn dinner? Or will it be targeted ads for delivery pizza?

A pizza ad ringing while my dinner is still smoldering would at least make me laugh.

Re: Google to Acquire Nest

#558

Post by wojt_eu »

chrisrhoden wrote: post #34
Karunamon wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Am I the only one that doesn't get chills up their spine whenever Google breaks into some new market? I see very little possible misuse of temperature preference (of all things...) and very great possible gains. The more intimately a service knows you, the more personalized and relevant data it can bring. And another thing, I am really sick and tired of tempering or being told to temper my enthusiasm for some new tec…

What about the ability to know when someone is in your home and when someone is not? If Google records that data (say, to be able to provide you with a handy chart of your energy use and some ways to improve it), the potential I am more worried about is the fact that the data exists makes it possible to subpoena.

Google already knows your location. Readings from your home electronics only enrich this data and make it more reliable.

Re: Google to Acquire Nest

#559

Post by [deleted] »

VLM wrote: post #551
clarky07 wrote: post #458

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You act like products can only be purchased with a credit card. That is not in fact the case.

Actually no, I acted like at a zero percent interest rate / zero opportunity cost (which is a little weird) it would take about nine years, and at a typical 30% credit card for your average poor dude was infinity. Everyone will fit somewhere within those bounds. A reasonable opportunity cost might be 3%, I'm too lazy to bother figuring the time till profit because nine years at zero is already too long.

[deleted]

Re: Google to Acquire Nest

#560

Post by thatthatis »

rokhayakebe wrote: post #532
mbesto wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Helen of Troy which owns Kaz, which owns Honeywell (one of the largest businesses specific to Nest's thermostat space) has a market cap of $1.7bil - http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=HELE - that's why this sounds crazy. On the flip side, P&G is a $217bil business - so, not that crazy how big the market is and can be. EDIT: As larrys points out, Honeywell is a $70bil biz.

I like how this 1.7B publicly traded co has a wordpress engine running their site.

Go look at the Berkshire Hathaway website.

There's something to be said for knowing what value a website brings to your business and building it to the appropriate level.

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