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Report: 47% of U.S. Jobs At Risk of Being Automated Out of Existence

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Re: Report: 47% of U.S. Jobs At Risk of Being Automated Out of Existence

#51

Post by nickff »

arrrg wrote: post #12
codegeek wrote: post #6

Another report: As more jobs are getting automated, it opens up "new" job opportunities in new fields that are coming up. So net effect: not much. Point being that for centuries, we have been automating things that were done by humans at some point in time. Not much different even today. Take one example of cellphones. It probably eliminated many "jobs" for people working in landline industries in the last decade or…

That is (very likely) true in the long run, but it would be foolish to overlook the short-term effects that can be devastating for many individuals. The weavers faced real problems, had a real existential crisis and struggled with real poverty and hunger for many decades. Yes, the industrial revolution brought a tremendous increase in wealth and living standards to everyone, but only eventually to everyone. It is tre…

These short term effects are exactly what the Luddites were against.[1] They may have gotten a bad reputation, but they had real problems.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luddite

Re: Report: 47% of U.S. Jobs At Risk of Being Automated Out of Existence

#52

Post by stefan_kendall »

I wish I could hide luddite articles like this permanently.

Technology improves efficiency, which eliminates the need for workers. Economics is not a zero-sum game, however. More money saved means more money invested, either by the individual or the bank in the case of pure savings.

Easier lending means more businesses in more industries. Everyone didn't starve to death during the industrial revolution. Dock workers didn't just commit suicide en masse when most of them were obviated by the invention of the shipping container.

Re: Report: 47% of U.S. Jobs At Risk of Being Automated Out of Existence

#53

Post by eli_gottlieb »

All that is solid melts into air, all that is holy is profaned, and man is at last compelled to face with sober senses his real conditions of life, and his relations with his kind!

Faster! Get rid of all the jobs before people can get used to permanent unemployment-ridden depression! Push them into revolting!

Re: Report: 47% of U.S. Jobs At Risk of Being Automated Out of Existence

#54

Post by vasilipupkin »

dragonwriter wrote: post #47
yodsanklai wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"As more jobs are getting automated, it opens up "new" job opportunities in new fields that are coming up." That's what I've been taught in school, but I'm not sure it's that simple. For one thing, I would say the jobs getting automated are less qualified, manual jobs. And new jobs opening up require more skills. But can we expect everyone to perform a highly skilled or intellectual job? It seems to me that either we…

> That's what I've been taught in school, but I'm not sure it's that simple. For one thing, I would say the jobs getting automated are less qualified, manual jobs. And new jobs opening up require more skills. But can we expect everyone to perform a highly skilled or intellectual job? More importantly, if we were replacing less-skilled jobs that are being automated with more-skilled, higher-paying jobs at a 1:1 ratio,…

I think you are confused in the same way that people are confused who think that economic pie is fixed size. The point of automation is it would expand the overall economic pie so that those more skilled higher paying jobs would be necessary to do something that would not happen otherwise - and that something, whatever it is, would be useful and profitable

Re: Report: 47% of U.S. Jobs At Risk of Being Automated Out of Existence

#55

Post by byoung2 »

acgourley wrote: post #24

A thought experiment: Imagine a pre-singularity world with near-intelligent anthropomorphic robots which can do most manual tasks - including resource mining, food production and building more of themselves. Imagine most menial white collar jobs have been replaced by clever software written by people on this site. There are still some jobs for humans to do - in game design, fashion, service, music, etc. But any way y…

I would challenge you to paint a picture of a far off future where most jobs haven't evaporated

200 years ago, nobody would have guessed that there would be millions of computer programmers employed in the world today, because the rise of computers couldn't be predicted. It's likely that in an era where basic needs are provided by robots, people are free to come up with new inventions that lead to the creation of new industries that don't exist today.

Re: Report: 47% of U.S. Jobs At Risk of Being Automated Out of Existence

#56

Post by dragonwriter »

vasilipupkin wrote: post #54
dragonwriter wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That's what I've been taught in school, but I'm not sure it's that simple. For one thing, I would say the jobs getting automated are less qualified, manual jobs. And new jobs opening up require more skills. But can we expect everyone to perform a highly skilled or intellectual job? More importantly, if we were replacing less-skilled jobs that are being automated with more-skilled, higher-paying jobs at a 1:1 ratio,…

I think you are confused in the same way that people are confused who think that economic pie is fixed size. The point of automation is it would expand the overall economic pie so that those more skilled higher paying jobs would be necessary to do something that would not happen otherwise - and that something, whatever it is, would be useful and profitable

> The point of automation is it would expand the overall economic pie so that those more skilled higher paying jobs would be necessary to do something that would not happen otherwise

No, the point -- i.e., why firms adopt automation -- is to cut the production costs of the firms adopting automation.

The hoped for social benefit -- hoped for largely by people who aren't the ones adopting automation -- is of an expanded overall economy that not only provides aggregate growth but also distributes that growth in a nice manner so that not only does the mean income improve, but the total share of population productively employed stays the same or improves, and everyone does better.

There's no real reason to expect that is either likely as the near-term result of automation, or necessary as its long-term result as a result of pure market forces. And it is certainly not the point of automation from the point of view of the firms doing the automation.

Re: Report: 47% of U.S. Jobs At Risk of Being Automated Out of Existence

#57

Post by Florin_Andrei »

Patrick_Devine wrote: post #30

With strong AI, wouldn't 100% of U.S. jobs be at risk? On the bright side, as software engineers, I would think our jobs will be the last to go. My guess is as a species we'll just find something else to do, just like we always do. Who knows, maybe inefficiency will become fashionable at some point.

> With strong AI, wouldn't 100% of U.S. jobs be at risk? On the bright side, as software engineers, I would think our jobs will be the last to go.

If the strong AI is hostile, people tinkering with it might be the first to go - and not just as jobs. :)

Re: Report: 47% of U.S. Jobs At Risk of Being Automated Out of Existence

#58

Post by evacuationdrill »

byoung2 wrote: post #33
codegeek wrote: post #6

Another report: As more jobs are getting automated, it opens up "new" job opportunities in new fields that are coming up. So net effect: not much. Point being that for centuries, we have been automating things that were done by humans at some point in time. Not much different even today. Take one example of cellphones. It probably eliminated many "jobs" for people working in landline industries in the last decade or…

the point is that the number of jobs themselves do not dimish I agree there. Think of the jobs that have been lost over the years as stores have closed due to competition from the internet. During my lifetime, I've seen independent bookstores merge and disappear, and even the mega-chains go away (e.g. Borders). Music stores - gone (Tower Records, Wherehouse, Sam Goody). Video rental - gone (Blockbuser). Big box elect…

Those are all retail jobs, so they're in the same industry. We probably have some new stores for products that didn't exist. We also have more warehouse jobs for the online merchants that replaced them.

Just thoughts, I don't know the numbers or anything.

Re: Report: 47% of U.S. Jobs At Risk of Being Automated Out of Existence

#59

Post by RivieraKid »

The problem is that the relative price of human time decreases, while the relative price of land and resources increases. So wealth moves to people who own resources.

Another problem is that the standard deviation of the price of human time is increasing. The typical example is someone of average intelligence who was an accountant but her job got automated. In general, jobs requiring an average intellect are disappearing and people who did these jobs are more often moving down (manual labor) than up (programmer, designer, etc.).

So the real problem of automation is not unemployment – you can always find a slave-like job for a few bucks per hour – but wealth inequality.

Re: Report: 47% of U.S. Jobs At Risk of Being Automated Out of Existence

#60

Post by 3pt14159 »

arrrg wrote: post #12
codegeek wrote: post #6

Another report: As more jobs are getting automated, it opens up "new" job opportunities in new fields that are coming up. So net effect: not much. Point being that for centuries, we have been automating things that were done by humans at some point in time. Not much different even today. Take one example of cellphones. It probably eliminated many "jobs" for people working in landline industries in the last decade or…

That is (very likely) true in the long run, but it would be foolish to overlook the short-term effects that can be devastating for many individuals. The weavers faced real problems, had a real existential crisis and struggled with real poverty and hunger for many decades. Yes, the industrial revolution brought a tremendous increase in wealth and living standards to everyone, but only eventually to everyone. It is tre…

How is it true in the long run when we have robots that can walk talk and think as well as our bottom 40% but take one tenth the cost in food / shelter?
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