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Report: 47% of U.S. Jobs At Risk of Being Automated Out of Existence

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Re: Report: 47% of U.S. Jobs At Risk of Being Automated Out of Existence

#41

Post by elwell »

codegeek wrote: post #6

Another report: As more jobs are getting automated, it opens up "new" job opportunities in new fields that are coming up. So net effect: not much. Point being that for centuries, we have been automating things that were done by humans at some point in time. Not much different even today. Take one example of cellphones. It probably eliminated many "jobs" for people working in landline industries in the last decade or…

I was reading about this yesterday in Ray Kurzweil's "The Age of Spiritual Machines".

Re: Report: 47% of U.S. Jobs At Risk of Being Automated Out of Existence

#42

Post by VLM »

wlesieutre wrote: post #31
ars wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You need to go to the next level. People automate things not to eliminate jobs (that's not the whole point), but to save money. So now the product is cheaper. So the buyers of the product have extra money to spend - which opens whole new fields of products and services for them, which will (at first) be run by humans and have jobs. It's a cycle that repeated many many times in history. It's just happening faster now.…

The customers as a whole don't have more money, because half of them just got automated out of their jobs. Maybe enough new jobs come around that it isn't a long term problem this time, but there will come a time when essentially every job could be done by a computer. What then?

Artisan economy? But it can't be monetarily based because only the few remaining capital owners and their very few labor jobs will have all the money.

My artisan economy I mean handmade paintings, handmade food, plays with actors instead of CGI movies, musicians, bars...

Re: Report: 47% of U.S. Jobs At Risk of Being Automated Out of Existence

#43

Post by jrs99 »

codegeek wrote: post #6

Another report: As more jobs are getting automated, it opens up "new" job opportunities in new fields that are coming up. So net effect: not much. Point being that for centuries, we have been automating things that were done by humans at some point in time. Not much different even today. Take one example of cellphones. It probably eliminated many "jobs" for people working in landline industries in the last decade or…

The number of jobs do diminish. There may one day be a point where all jobs are automated. No human being will need to have a job.

Re: Report: 47% of U.S. Jobs At Risk of Being Automated Out of Existence

#44

Post by mc32 »

arrrg wrote: post #12
codegeek wrote: post #6

Another report: As more jobs are getting automated, it opens up "new" job opportunities in new fields that are coming up. So net effect: not much. Point being that for centuries, we have been automating things that were done by humans at some point in time. Not much different even today. Take one example of cellphones. It probably eliminated many "jobs" for people working in landline industries in the last decade or…

That is (very likely) true in the long run, but it would be foolish to overlook the short-term effects that can be devastating for many individuals. The weavers faced real problems, had a real existential crisis and struggled with real poverty and hunger for many decades. Yes, the industrial revolution brought a tremendous increase in wealth and living standards to everyone, but only eventually to everyone. It is tre…

I agree with this. Not sure how viable, but it'd be nice to see some kind of federal program which allowed for a 5-year transition program for people where their industries collapse precipitously (by some definition) and are guaranteed 100% their wages but must study/prepare for a new career.

Not sure how to avoid the occasional dilly-dallier who thought they'd make a good chef, but maybe we'd just have to put up with that fact.

Re: Report: 47% of U.S. Jobs At Risk of Being Automated Out of Existence

#45

Post by krisdol »

bluedino wrote: post #14
codegeek wrote: post #6

Another report: As more jobs are getting automated, it opens up "new" job opportunities in new fields that are coming up. So net effect: not much. Point being that for centuries, we have been automating things that were done by humans at some point in time. Not much different even today. Take one example of cellphones. It probably eliminated many "jobs" for people working in landline industries in the last decade or…

Automation eliminates jobs - that's the whole point. One robot replaces 20 workers and you only need 1 person per every 20 robots to manage them. Sure, you've got jobs in robot building and such but when a robot shop with 20 employees turns out 200 robots in one year and displaces 4000 workers...

The problem is that society's support system is nearly non-existent. If people have to do less work to create the same product, they should be awarded with more time away from work to enjoy their life. But without some ownership over the products of one's own labor, this is not an option. Rather than having a system where technology improves the lifestyle of the middle class, our status quo is a system where technology battles against the worker and puts her at risk of poverty.

Re: Report: 47% of U.S. Jobs At Risk of Being Automated Out of Existence

#46

Post by elwell »

acgourley wrote: post #24

A thought experiment: Imagine a pre-singularity world with near-intelligent anthropomorphic robots which can do most manual tasks - including resource mining, food production and building more of themselves. Imagine most menial white collar jobs have been replaced by clever software written by people on this site. There are still some jobs for humans to do - in game design, fashion, service, music, etc. But any way y…

Ray Kurzweil talks about this in "The Age of Spiritual Machines". It probably comes down to human morality (as with just about everything) with regards to whether this singularity is a good thing or a bad thing.

Re: Report: 47% of U.S. Jobs At Risk of Being Automated Out of Existence

#47

Post by dragonwriter »

yodsanklai wrote: post #38
codegeek wrote: post #6

Another report: As more jobs are getting automated, it opens up "new" job opportunities in new fields that are coming up. So net effect: not much. Point being that for centuries, we have been automating things that were done by humans at some point in time. Not much different even today. Take one example of cellphones. It probably eliminated many "jobs" for people working in landline industries in the last decade or…

"As more jobs are getting automated, it opens up "new" job opportunities in new fields that are coming up." That's what I've been taught in school, but I'm not sure it's that simple. For one thing, I would say the jobs getting automated are less qualified, manual jobs. And new jobs opening up require more skills. But can we expect everyone to perform a highly skilled or intellectual job? It seems to me that either we…

> That's what I've been taught in school, but I'm not sure it's that simple. For one thing, I would say the jobs getting automated are less qualified, manual jobs. And new jobs opening up require more skills. But can we expect everyone to perform a highly skilled or intellectual job?

More importantly, if we were replacing less-skilled jobs that are being automated with more-skilled, higher-paying jobs at a 1:1 ratio, automation would be driving up production costs rather than controlling them, and there'd be no motivation to do it.

Re: Report: 47% of U.S. Jobs At Risk of Being Automated Out of Existence

#48

Post by Uchikoma »

codegeek wrote: post #6

Another report: As more jobs are getting automated, it opens up "new" job opportunities in new fields that are coming up. So net effect: not much. Point being that for centuries, we have been automating things that were done by humans at some point in time. Not much different even today. Take one example of cellphones. It probably eliminated many "jobs" for people working in landline industries in the last decade or…

Yes, but there are more low income Amazon warehouse jobs than mid income building cars jobs.

Re: Report: 47% of U.S. Jobs At Risk of Being Automated Out of Existence

#49

Post by jrs99 »

wlesieutre wrote: post #31
ars wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You need to go to the next level. People automate things not to eliminate jobs (that's not the whole point), but to save money. So now the product is cheaper. So the buyers of the product have extra money to spend - which opens whole new fields of products and services for them, which will (at first) be run by humans and have jobs. It's a cycle that repeated many many times in history. It's just happening faster now.…

The customers as a whole don't have more money, because half of them just got automated out of their jobs. Maybe enough new jobs come around that it isn't a long term problem this time, but there will come a time when essentially every job could be done by a computer. What then?

If that point in time comes, and the computers still "obey" humans, yet still have enough control so that there are no wars between different computer groups, then nobody will have a job and we'll just ask robots to make us stuff and they'll mine other planets and make stuff for us, and we'll live in outerspace in spaceships and relax a lot.
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