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Report: 47% of U.S. Jobs At Risk of Being Automated Out of Existence

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11–20 of 92 posts

Re: Report: 47% of U.S. Jobs At Risk of Being Automated Out of Existence

#11
post #6

Another report: As more jobs are getting automated, it opens up "new" job opportunities in new fields that are coming up. So net effect: not much. Point being that for centuries, we have been automating things that were done by humans at some point in time. Not much different even today. Take one example of cellphones. It probably eliminated many "jobs" for people working in landline industries in the last decade or…

Are you actually citing another report or are you simply hoping this is true on the basis it's been true so far.

Re: Report: 47% of U.S. Jobs At Risk of Being Automated Out of Existence

#12
post #6

Another report: As more jobs are getting automated, it opens up "new" job opportunities in new fields that are coming up. So net effect: not much. Point being that for centuries, we have been automating things that were done by humans at some point in time. Not much different even today. Take one example of cellphones. It probably eliminated many "jobs" for people working in landline industries in the last decade or…

That is (very likely) true in the long run, but it would be foolish to overlook the short-term effects that can be devastating for many individuals.

The weavers faced real problems, had a real existential crisis and struggled with real poverty and hunger for many decades. Yes, the industrial revolution brought a tremendous increase in wealth and living standards to everyone, but only eventually to everyone.

It is tremendously important to take care of the people who are cast by the wayside by those changes.

Re: Report: 47% of U.S. Jobs At Risk of Being Automated Out of Existence

#13
post #4

Somewhere around 90% of U.S. Jobs were automated out of existence in the late 1800s/early 1900s. Is this time different?

In the long run, I don't think so. You could argue change is happening much faster today, and people need to adapt to new jobs and skills faster, but on the other hand, there are also many more opportunities to choose from these days.

I think a difference is perhaps that the time investment required to adapt to the old automation was a lot less than that required to adapt to this one, while human lifespan hasn't categorically changed (the most dramatic shifts in life expectancy in the last century and a half have come in large part from infant mortality improvements). Working in a factory in the Industrial Revolution didn't require much training/education at all. Post-WWII, the shift in job-skills to essentially requiring literacy was dealth with by a society that tried to ensure that its citizens were educated enough, with great results.

This time, starting around the 70s and 80s, we entirely failed to educate our populace to the point where the majority can be fully-productive members of the new job marketplace. It's becoming conventional wisdom that having only a high school degree (as a crude heuristic for skill level) is not enough to be productive economically, and this is becoming increasingly true of having a college degree where you don't learn anything useful. In every cycle of improved tools/higher skill bar, there are casualties that weren't able to improve their productivity fast enough; this is one of the uncommon cases where (in the US, at least), "people not keeping up" is a systemic issue instead of a transient one (I don't think the overall education system today is all that much better than 20 years ago).

It's a "this-time-is-different" situation in a limited sense; that is, it's not inherent to the nature of the automation-cycle itself, but rather to the nature of our response to it.

Note that this isn't some engineering-centric notion of needing immediately applicable skills from college. Studying something more academic in college has just as much value, as long as it's something that's useful (a good rule of thumb is "as long as you use the things you learned in college in the future"). I'm referring to the fact that it's long been the practice for many people to get a college degree in literally anything with the knowledge that the existence of the degree itself would be a good enough signal for intelligence/skills that you could get an okay job afterwards. This is increasingly untrue.

Re: Report: 47% of U.S. Jobs At Risk of Being Automated Out of Existence

#14
post #6

Another report: As more jobs are getting automated, it opens up "new" job opportunities in new fields that are coming up. So net effect: not much. Point being that for centuries, we have been automating things that were done by humans at some point in time. Not much different even today. Take one example of cellphones. It probably eliminated many "jobs" for people working in landline industries in the last decade or…

Automation eliminates jobs - that's the whole point. One robot replaces 20 workers and you only need 1 person per every 20 robots to manage them.

Sure, you've got jobs in robot building and such but when a robot shop with 20 employees turns out 200 robots in one year and displaces 4000 workers...

Re: Report: 47% of U.S. Jobs At Risk of Being Automated Out of Existence

#18

Somewhere around 90% of U.S. Jobs were automated out of existence in the late 1800s/early 1900s. Is this time different?

Is there a difference between machines designed to perform a narrow set of very specialized tasks and machines designed to perform a broad set of very generalized tasks?

If it's not different this time, it will eventually be. That's the goal.

Re: Report: 47% of U.S. Jobs At Risk of Being Automated Out of Existence

#19

Somewhere around 90% of U.S. Jobs were automated out of existence in the late 1800s/early 1900s. Is this time different?

I guess it feels like there were other manual labor jobs to move to back in that day and age.

But if nearly every manual labor and semi-skilled labor job is going to be automated, I don't know what those people will do. The people who dig ditches or drive trucks today are not going to be happy or excel in office jobs.

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