Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

openculture.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

111–120 of 120 posts

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#111

Post by naboavida84 »

smsm42 wrote: post #40

One of the funny things is the video-phone. The technology is there for years, and we can't really say we don't do it at all - we do it sometimes. But mostly we don't - not because technology is not there but because it turned out it's not that great an idea after all. Turns out in most of the situations we don't actually need the video and voice only is good enough. It is fascinating how many people didn't think it…

More than not needing, people don't want video in most situations. I remember people saying: "how could I tell to my wife that im at work and not at the bar?"

This is how innovation works in terms of reference dependence, we weight the new features versus the previous ones and decide if there is a gain, or several. Additionaly, loss aversion will be included in the formula and make it harder to change.

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#112

Post by emwa »

sillysaurus2 wrote: post #7

Note that this article is a lightweight edit of Asimov's original piece: http://www.nytimes.com/books/97/03/23/lifetimes/asi-v-fair.h... In particular, the article is edited to only show you reasonable predictions, rather than all his predictions. I thought his mistakes were just as interesting, because they give us a window into what life was like in 1964. Asimov predicted that moon colonies would be common by now,…

Much effort will be put into the designing of vehicles with "Robot-brains" vehicles that can be set for particular destinations and that will then proceed there without interference by the slow reflexes of a human driver. Wow!

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#113

Post by ryusage »

dylandrop wrote: post #42

"There will be aircraft, of course, but even ground travel will increasingly take to the air a foot or two off the ground." Curious as to why there is such an obsession with hovering vehicles in pop culture depictions in the future. It seems cool but that it would be inefficient even if we did develop it. (Using a crapload of power to suspend a heavy vehicle when it could be sitting on the ground just doesn't make mu…

Because it looks so much cooler. And you never have to worry about bumpy roads or rocks or any of that ever again. You can go over water like it's nothing! It's something that seems amazing but not completely impossible.

When people romanticize this idea, they're never thinking about efficiency or practicality. Only how cool it seems.

Video phone calls are the same thing. As someone else pointed out here, the idea of it seems really cool and amazing. But we've had that ability now for years, and it turns out: it's actually less convenient and efficient than just sending a simple little text message. So it doesn't get used a lot.

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#114

Post by Tloewald »

vidarh wrote: post #97
Tloewald wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The question is, if walmart and macdonalds sre run by robots, who will their customers be? At some point we'll need to decide whether we're happy to be a society comprising a few shareholders in Mom's Friemdly Robot Company living in an fortified compound and a vast multitude of impoverished rabble foraging in the surrounding landfill.

You've basically restated the core of the marxist idea of the basis for the socialist revolution.

Indeed.

...except that Marx was concerned with "mere" capital while we're talking about automation, robotics, etc.. It turned out that capitalism on its own did not create the social unrest Marx predicted (at least in societies which didn't already suck for other reasons), but it may be that automating the workers out of being able to earn even a subsistence might in fact do so.

Another way of looking at it is that while Marx identified a real problem, his solution was essentially a bunch of wishful thinking which, when pitted against free market economics did rather poorly. But, free market economics is all about managing scarcity; automation points the way to a post-scarcity society (at least post-material-scarcity). Free market economics doesn't have anything to say about how to handle this -- so we're all in the dark.

It seems to me that as the marginal value of material goods diminishes relative to say the marginal value of not being beaten and robbed we should see a natural progression towards some kind of redistribution of wealth -- driven as much by enlightened self-interest as anything. ("We'll pay you welfare as long as you keep taking your contraceptive pills...")

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#115

Post by Tloewald »

ijk wrote: post #81
Tloewald wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We could have moonbases but what use would they be? In general any futurist has been ridiculously optimistic about energy generation/storage, robots, and transportation, and hopelessly pessimistic about (or even oblivious to) computers, communication, and anything biological (except perhaps for sanguine predictions about curing cancer, ageing, or the common cold). Arthur C. Clarke, whose predictions are linked from t…

In general, futurists tends to overestimate trends from technologies that are at the middle of an s-curve and underestimate technologies at the beginning of the s-curve. I expect future predictions to shift along the same trends, overestimating trends that are currently skyrocketing. And of course, which technologies the futurist is personally familiar with can vary widely. Asimov, for example, had a blind spot for r…

I'm not sure as a general observation the "s-curve" turns out to work that well. E.g. futurists have (with Kurzweil and his crowd a notable exception) consistently underestimated progress in computer capabilities even in the 80s and 90s when progress was insanely rapid, while over-estimating advances in AI (which is, optimistically, at the beginning of its s-curve). You could almost include Asimov in that. Similarly, Arthur C. Clarke was oblivious to miniaturization while living in the thick of it.

I think one of the factors is romance -- SF writers want certain things to happen and just wish it into being, regardless of how plausible it really is (faster than light travel, time travel, anti-gravity, artificial gravity, laser pistols).

On the reverse side they tend to ignore technologies that are either unromantic or make stories more complicated or seem to fight against cliched dramatic opportunities. (Fast travel adds to romance and drama, but fast communications detract from romance and drama.)

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#116

Post by Nimi »

Tloewald wrote: post #114
vidarh wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You've basically restated the core of the marxist idea of the basis for the socialist revolution.

Indeed. ...except that Marx was concerned with "mere" capital while we're talking about automation, robotics, etc.. It turned out that capitalism on its own did not create the social unrest Marx predicted (at least in societies which didn't already suck for other reasons), but it may be that automating the workers out of being able to earn even a subsistence might in fact do so. Another way of looking at it is that w…

Marx also treated capital as a way to control the means of production. One could argue that with automation, especially software automation, controlling the means of production is possible without a significant amount of capital.

Seems to me we're already seeing the natural progression you described in your last paragraph - basic income initiatives. This really looks to me like the anti-segregation movement from the 60s - a radical idea at the time, then 50 years later people don't understand how it was possible to have a society without it.

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#117

Post by Tloewald »

Nimi wrote: post #116
Tloewald wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed. ...except that Marx was concerned with "mere" capital while we're talking about automation, robotics, etc.. It turned out that capitalism on its own did not create the social unrest Marx predicted (at least in societies which didn't already suck for other reasons), but it may be that automating the workers out of being able to earn even a subsistence might in fact do so. Another way of looking at it is that w…

Marx also treated capital as a way to control the means of production. One could argue that with automation, especially software automation, controlling the means of production is possible without a significant amount of capital. Seems to me we're already seeing the natural progression you described in your last paragraph - basic income initiatives. This really looks to me like the anti-segregation movement from the…

You may be right. Certainly the gay rights movement has succeeded beyond my wildest hopes or expectations during a period of generally right-wing dominance amd stalemate (the democrats have only had two years to pass legislation since 2000), and now it looks like the war on drugs might collapse. We seem to be enjoying one or two tectonic shifts in politics every decade right now. Amazing times.

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#118

Post by cLeEOGPw »

Tloewald wrote: post #115
ijk wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In general, futurists tends to overestimate trends from technologies that are at the middle of an s-curve and underestimate technologies at the beginning of the s-curve. I expect future predictions to shift along the same trends, overestimating trends that are currently skyrocketing. And of course, which technologies the futurist is personally familiar with can vary widely. Asimov, for example, had a blind spot for r…

I'm not sure as a general observation the "s-curve" turns out to work that well. E.g. futurists have (with Kurzweil and his crowd a notable exception) consistently underestimated progress in computer capabilities even in the 80s and 90s when progress was insanely rapid, while over-estimating advances in AI (which is, optimistically, at the beginning of its s-curve). You could almost include Asimov in that. Similarly,…

I think over-estimation of AI comes less from the understanding the position of the technology on the s-curve, but more from easily conceivable vision of machine behaving just like human. Nobody wants to listen to people who predict AI in future being pattern-scanners, optimizers or programing languages, because that, as you said, isn't romantic or dramatic at all.

And I would dare to argue that the AI is at the beginning of the s-curve. The field of study have been around for many decades already, many applicable results found and it is used in the industry. It's kind of like saying that current transportation technology is at the beginning of the s-curve, because I am waiting for near light-speed transportation, and current speeds are very small compared to my arbitrary expectation.

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#119

Post by Nimi »

Tloewald wrote: post #117
Nimi wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Marx also treated capital as a way to control the means of production. One could argue that with automation, especially software automation, controlling the means of production is possible without a significant amount of capital. Seems to me we're already seeing the natural progression you described in your last paragraph - basic income initiatives. This really looks to me like the anti-segregation movement from the…

You may be right. Certainly the gay rights movement has succeeded beyond my wildest hopes or expectations during a period of generally right-wing dominance amd stalemate (the democrats have only had two years to pass legislation since 2000), and now it looks like the war on drugs might collapse. We seem to be enjoying one or two tectonic shifts in politics every decade right now. Amazing times.

I'm not from the U.S., so as an outsider it seems to me socialism, which is the prominent political stance in some parts of Europe and a respectable opposition stance in others, was/is constantly demonized there, similarly to how gay people were demonized decades ago ("recruiting" young children etc.).

So a not-unreasonable guess as to "what's next" might be socialism, regardless of whether we're post-scarcity or not, and regardless of the success of basic income initiatives. Maybe ACA will be considered the first sign 50 years from now...

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#120

Post by ijk »

cLeEOGPw wrote: post #118
Tloewald wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure as a general observation the "s-curve" turns out to work that well. E.g. futurists have (with Kurzweil and his crowd a notable exception) consistently underestimated progress in computer capabilities even in the 80s and 90s when progress was insanely rapid, while over-estimating advances in AI (which is, optimistically, at the beginning of its s-curve). You could almost include Asimov in that. Similarly,…

I think over-estimation of AI comes less from the understanding the position of the technology on the s-curve, but more from easily conceivable vision of machine behaving just like human. Nobody wants to listen to people who predict AI in future being pattern-scanners, optimizers or programing languages, because that, as you said, isn't romantic or dramatic at all. And I would dare to argue that the AI is at the begi…

Alternately, though this may be stretching the point, you could say that '60s AI-as-human was at the _end_ of its curve, shortly to be replaced by the more practical actual AI. While specific writers have different biases--and some end up way ahead of the curve--in the aggregate I think futurists tend to overestimate the technologies of their era.

Though you're definitely right that literary biases play into it. While not not all SF writers are futurists, most futurists are trying to tell stories. Even some who aren't primarily SF writers: Kurzweil has a narrative arc to his ideas.

Post reply on HN