Earlier quoted context omitted.
Isn't the gotcha of this test the fact that the history of previous coin flips has no effect on the next flip , given a fair coin? The OP is only asking what the outcome of the NEXT flip is, not the probability of flipping 11 heads in a row. Or did I read this wrong?
You didn't read it wrong, but you probably did fail the test ;-) There is no gotcha in the question, it's just a math problem that you either do or do not know how to solve. This isn't really about intelligence as much as it is about whether you have taken a course on probability. If you flipped 10 heads in a row the probability of the coin you have being the double heads coin increases dramatically, so you have to t…
I disagree. The coin is the coin. It didn't magically transport itself or change state after flipping it 10, 100, or a billion times.
Lets change the puzzle to the simplest state: you pull a coin from the 1000-coin jar and flip it just once. What's the probability of heads?
This is why roulette and baccarat tables in Vegas have those signs showing previous outcomes. It's meant to mess with your head. Previous history has no effect on future outcomes. A fair coin could come up heads a billion times in a row as well. The next flip will still be 0.5.