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Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

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Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#101
post #58
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm of the opinion that SF is a poor place to look for predictions about the future, and that it is primarily about the present it's written in, a playground for changing the fundamental assumptions of that mundane present. But this one interests me: Mankind will therefore have become largely a race of machine tenders. I think, by and large, this is true in western society. We, here on this site, mostly tend to machi…

I had a conversation with some friends earlier this week regarding the reduction of labor due to automation and artificial intelligence. What happens to our society when our Walmarts and McDonalds stop needing a significant human workforce? My friend, who is a teacher, suggested that his field might be exempt from the trend. But, I imagine the purpose and methods of education will be radically different in the next f…

The most interesting question to me is if/when all menial tasks (and each step in complexity thereafter) can be performed by robots/AI: are there people who aren't capable of performing any other useful tasks, and if so, what to do about that?

I would propose we are somewhat in that situation already, where many employees are nearly useless in the capacities they are supposed to be working because they just aren't capable, though in possibly all cases this is solely a temporary problem due to inefficiencies in the system. It is logical to assume that problem will only get worse though. Hopefully this will lead to advancements in education, and in means of organizing and developing the abilities of those whose skills are obsolete in addressing the many problems that we still need to tackle. Essentially, mining and engineering humanity for unrealized potential.

Moving beyond McDonalds workers, think about doctors even. Many of the tasks currently performed by doctors will be automated in the next 50 years (and many tasks earlier than later). So their job description will change drastically, which hopefully means their efforts will be redirected to the areas we are currently deficient, leading to better care and health for everyone.

Efficiency and productivity advancement is of course a large net positive, as long as the benefits do not go increasingly disproportionately to a smaller subset of humanity (as has been the case the last 20 years in the US for example), and that the obsoleted workers can be redirected effectively to other tasks. Similarly, I am concerned that many human skills could be increasingly devalued as natural resources become the limiting factor, as is already happening to some extent. I don't have an elegant solution, but we really need to find a better means of balancing rewards for shrewd trading/management with maintaining a high level of parity between contribution to society and consumption of goods and services (including capital accumulation for eventual consumption). If we don't, I could certainly see a future where, despite vast increases in efficiency, wealth/power is far more concentrated in the hands of a few: natural resource owners(which China seems to realize), shrewd businessmen/politicians, engineers/scientists in frontier fields that haven't been mastered yet like AI, biotech, etc. I suppose this is really just more of the same situation we have now, but I am concerned about it being exacerbated by this trend. Hopefully political/economic/social dynamics will keep this effect in check.

Up until recently the forces of natural selection have largely applied to the human race. Since we have become more civilized and are trying to live in harmony, we attempt to respect everyone's right to exist and ensure everyone is given opportunities to thrive. It will be very interesting how policies regarding reproduction evolve as we approach the manageable population limit. Certainly the current US policy cannot persist indefinitely, which offers substantial assistance in providing the basic needs and education for an unlimited number of offspring. How will this be limited? How will it be enforced? Will we enact an equal limitation as China did? Will we adjust policy to reintroduce elements of natural selection, such as requiring some proof of genetic utility to society (perhaps simply as ability to financially provide for the child without external support). If so, will this trend in automation etc play a role in shaping the genetic evolution of the human race? I expect it will in one way or another once population growth becomes a problem, just as societal changes had for centuries before our recent socialist policies (and in many ways still does globally). Perhaps this will be a part of how the question raised by parent comment is addressed (though I am certain it wouldn't be McDonald's workers in question, it would be many many years down the road, not to mention that "McDonald's workers" comprises a very non-homogenous set).

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#102

I'm always fascinated when reading articles like this that no one predicted general purpose or networked computers, or the implications thereof. It's always a gadget for this and a gadget for that, but never a gadget for everything that communicates instantaneously with every other gadget for everything on Earth. It speaks to the limits that the society around us places on our imagination -- these things were, quite…

Even SF authors and thinkers familiar with computer technology missed the possibility of a truly open and universally accessible networked platform. The closest I'm aware of was Jerry Pournelle's prediction that people would subscribe to 'Information Utilities'. I suppose you could argue that Google and Facebook are information utilities of a kind, but not at all in the way that he described them.

Another technology I'm not really aware of any SF authors or futurists predicting in any meaningful way is autonomous aerial drones. It now looks like these things will eventually be everywhere handling postal deliveries, emergency response and surveillance.

If you'd asked a cross section of computer technologists in the 70s how long they thought Moore's Law would last, I wonder what they'd have said.

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#103
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe your oven has a touchscreen and apps on it but it basically still heats your food by converting electricity to heat.

Nope, mine uses electricity to radiate microwaves.

Which are by dielectric heating converted to heat...

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#104

Note that this article is a lightweight edit of Asimov's original piece: http://www.nytimes.com/books/97/03/23/lifetimes/asi-v-fair.h... In particular, the article is edited to only show you reasonable predictions, rather than all his predictions. I thought his mistakes were just as interesting, because they give us a window into what life was like in 1964. Asimov predicted that moon colonies would be common by now,…

It's also fun to imagine someone 50 years from now looking back on us. I wonder which of our societal trends will survive 50 years? It's an interesting game to try to figure out which of our current beliefs are crazy even though no one presently thinks so.

I think our current focus and bias will drive much of it. A lot of our worldview is apps, internet, computers and mobile devices. Most predictions will extrapolate this, perhaps with Moore's law. We'll probably miss the 1 or 2 huge leaps that will redefine society.

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#106
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had a conversation with some friends earlier this week regarding the reduction of labor due to automation and artificial intelligence. What happens to our society when our Walmarts and McDonalds stop needing a significant human workforce? My friend, who is a teacher, suggested that his field might be exempt from the trend. But, I imagine the purpose and methods of education will be radically different in the next f…

Teachers won't be exempt. Look at what's going on in US public education with the move to Core Curriculum. The focus is on reading and math, with outcomes measured via computer based testing. You think when cash-strapped state legislatures realize they could reduce the number of teachers down to a single proctor watching over self-paced computer based instruction that they won't go for it, especially when "the test"…

Judging by the mistakes my daughter's teachers make, I would happily have her class like you describe. self-paced and continually graded. She brings home 40 math problems, it's obvious she has no trouble with some of them, yet they all need to be done. Meanwhile she struggles on subtracting negative numbers, a smarter system would be for the software teacher to recognise when she has something understood and slowly transition to the weaker areas.

In the early years when teacher is more like supervised play I think teachers better serve the children, but middle school and beyond, I'd vote to kick out all the useless teachers, keep the few that are good and massively switch to computerised learning.

In California education has sunk so low that one of my daughter's teachers explained the common core standards now being taught as a last ditch attempt to get most of the children that leave school to be able to do something as basic as read an instruction manual. Half her class are children with parents that have no more than 3rd grade education themselves, and the other half have parents that work at google, twitter, oracle etc. When parents were recently surveyed how to improve the school district, less than 2% of the immigrant parents completed the survey citing they couldn't understand the questions, which had even been translated (at an unfathomable cost of $24k) into Spanish. While we have such a huge range of abilities, a self-paced learning computerised scheme would at least mean the children that are capable of learning will do so and not just sit twiddling their thumbs while the children struggling to do last years level work soak up the educators time.

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#107
post #58
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm of the opinion that SF is a poor place to look for predictions about the future, and that it is primarily about the present it's written in, a playground for changing the fundamental assumptions of that mundane present. But this one interests me: Mankind will therefore have become largely a race of machine tenders. I think, by and large, this is true in western society. We, here on this site, mostly tend to machi…

I had a conversation with some friends earlier this week regarding the reduction of labor due to automation and artificial intelligence. What happens to our society when our Walmarts and McDonalds stop needing a significant human workforce? My friend, who is a teacher, suggested that his field might be exempt from the trend. But, I imagine the purpose and methods of education will be radically different in the next f…

AI = infinite (almost) totally free labour force. Top rate, from digging mud, to nobel prize winning scientists. No one is exempt.

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#108
The problem with most such predictions isn't the technology but the social side effects; we are capable of fulfilling the prediction, but don't want to. Ex.: nuclear batteries are entirely doable, but the word "nuclear" has been demonized. Ex.: breakfast-making robots are possible, but we just don't want them.

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nope, mine uses electricity to radiate microwaves.

Which are by dielectric heating converted to heat...

Well, sure, if you want to heat something, you must create heat. That's a tautology. But it's not true that the appliance is almost exactly as it was, it just has the same goal.

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#110
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had a conversation with some friends earlier this week regarding the reduction of labor due to automation and artificial intelligence. What happens to our society when our Walmarts and McDonalds stop needing a significant human workforce? My friend, who is a teacher, suggested that his field might be exempt from the trend. But, I imagine the purpose and methods of education will be radically different in the next f…

AI = infinite (almost) totally free labour force. Top rate, from digging mud, to nobel prize winning scientists. No one is exempt.

AI + substantial assumptions = almost free labour force

You are assuming: - cost of materials and the energy consumed by an AI manual laborer or scientist would be negligible compared to a human for every n beneficial position, including the last position at the margin. That is, we would run out of resources to make AI scientists and laborers before we ran out of uses for scientists and laborers - Zero R&D costs to build that AI, or that they have been sufficiently recooped so that the end-user cost is negligible - AI can be equivalent (or superior) in every way to a human being in every possible task - An AI scientist would be able to perform every function as well as a human, and yet would not demand an income, equal rights, etc. Essentially, disabling those parts of the human psyche would have no limiting effects on the capabilities of the AI system in any useful task. That seems unlikely, and at least is impossible to know at this point.

And then, if your assumptions hold, then given appropriate population controls so resource contention isn't an issue, I imagine it would be a pretty remarkable upgrade in quality of life for everyone across the board. In which case, the sentiment is not that no one is exempt, but that no one is left out.

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