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Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

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31–40 of 120 posts

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#31

That is probably the best prediction I've seen anyone do. He greatly overestimated our capability to store/generate power, the reason is apparent in his Foundation series as what he got wrong (cordless appliances and hovering transportation) basically comes down to this; we don't have miniature nuclear fusion devices. Well, actually we do, they just aren't commercially viable to the extent you'll see them in a blende…

What small fusion devices do you speak of? Or did you mean fission?

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#32
post #4

I like this one: “The appliances of 2014 will have no electric cords, of course, for they will be powered by long- lived batteries running on radioisotopes.”

Wouldn't be surprised if something like that is coming soon. Maybe not radioisotopes exactly, but something. Battery technology has been one of the major bottlenecks in advancing electronics, mobile computing, and transportation. It's an area ripe for change, and the economic pressure/incentive is definitely there.

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#33
"For that matter, you will be able to reach someone at the moon colonies, concerning which General Motors puts on a display of impressive vehicles (in model form) with large soft tires intended to negotiate the uneven terrain that may exist on our natural satellite."

I'm not sure what I find more quaint: moon colonies or General Motors making impressive vehicles.

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#34
post #5

The one that stands out for me: [M]ankind will suffer badly from the disease of boredom, a disease spreading more widely each year and growing in intensity. This will have serious mental, emotional and sociological consequences, and I dare say that psychiatry will be far and away the most important medical specialty in 2014. Whilst psychiatry isn't yet the most important specialty in medicine, we are beginning to fal…

Here is a prediction: Over the next 50 years, mental health will become the primary affliction of humanity. The more discontinuity we have with the world we are evolved to inhabit, the less relevant we become to the world, the more mental health problems will loom in our lives. Suppressed by medications of all manor, perhaps. But an affliction nonetheless.

My prediction is that advances in neurology in the next 50 years will make our current understanding of mental health look like homeopathy. It is very difficult today to accurately diagnose people with mental diseases like ADD or depression when we don't understand how the brain works on that level of detail. My understanding is that it still depends largely on interview-style questions about what the person is feeling. Imagine what will happen when "How do you feel?" turns into "Please relax as I use this scanner/cap/whatever to observe how you feel," when mental diseases can be defined in precisely in terms of neurological functions (or malfunctions). If those kinds of advancements happen we'll be far more prepared to address boredom and other mental health problems.

Edit: Not to diminish what psychiatrists and doctors are doing today. They're doing the best they can with our current understanding and technology and probably helping a lot of people.

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#35

Note that this article is a lightweight edit of Asimov's original piece: http://www.nytimes.com/books/97/03/23/lifetimes/asi-v-fair.h... In particular, the article is edited to only show you reasonable predictions, rather than all his predictions. I thought his mistakes were just as interesting, because they give us a window into what life was like in 1964. Asimov predicted that moon colonies would be common by now,…

He wasn't wrong about automation: most routine jobs CAN be done better by machines, it's just that humans are cheaper and more flexible :)

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#36
post #20

All the high-school students will be taught the fundamentals of computer technology will become proficient in binary arithmetic and will be trained to perfection in the use of the computer languages that will have developed out of those like the contemporary “Fortran. I wish that was the case.

I think it's slowly becoming the consensus that computer science is a practical skill that children can pick up with moderate ease, and I can only imagine interest will increase in the future..

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#37
post #33

"For that matter, you will be able to reach someone at the moon colonies, concerning which General Motors puts on a display of impressive vehicles (in model form) with large soft tires intended to negotiate the uneven terrain that may exist on our natural satellite." I'm not sure what I find more quaint: moon colonies or General Motors making impressive vehicles.

I have a GM vehicle and I love it.

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#38
post #37
post #33

"For that matter, you will be able to reach someone at the moon colonies, concerning which General Motors puts on a display of impressive vehicles (in model form) with large soft tires intended to negotiate the uneven terrain that may exist on our natural satellite." I'm not sure what I find more quaint: moon colonies or General Motors making impressive vehicles.

I have a GM vehicle and I love it.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that it probably isn't moon-capable.

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#39
I found this one funny:

“Ordinary agriculture will keep up with great difficulty and there will be ‘farms’ turning to the more efficient micro-organisms. Processed yeast and algae products will be available in a variety of flavors.”

Reminds me of Soylent Green (wasn't the original Soylent in the movie supposed to be processed algae?)

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#40
One of the funny things is the video-phone. The technology is there for years, and we can't really say we don't do it at all - we do it sometimes. But mostly we don't - not because technology is not there but because it turned out it's not that great an idea after all. Turns out in most of the situations we don't actually need the video and voice only is good enough. It is fascinating how many people didn't think it would be the case.
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