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Bitcoin and positive vs. normative economics

krugman.blogs.nytimes.com

271–280 of 520 posts

Re: Bitcoin and positive vs. normative economics

#271
post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem that I have heard being stated before is that Bitcoin is associated with real money. This basically leads to the value of each Bitcoin increasing, and then early adopters making gains that they shouldn't really be making. I don't know how a system would look, where everyone starts off with X Bitcoin, though the current system feels wrong where some people now have $100s millions of Bitcoins and didn't do…

... Why? It seems to me that it works the same as any system with early adopters willing to take on risk. People that got into twitter early make more than people who get in later, without any necessary correlation to how much work they've contributed. Early investors in a company often put in no work beyond their capital, should their shares be redistributed after it becomes a sure thing? If bitcoin fails, the losse…

I feel your comparison is apples and oranges, other than that the current structure of Bitcoin gives gain to early adopters, and early adopters / investors in a business potentially allows investors to have higher gains. However they are different systems.

Why can't the system exist just based on the incentive of the value that system brings? Why can't that be reward enough? The issue here is allocation of resources - to build and implement this structure and have it being adopted. The reason this is getting exposure is because businesses can make a profit, in a de-centralized Ponzi-scheme like structure - and with it being de-centralized giving it a huge amount of momentum and putting it to a holistic scale, where there can be lots/"unlimited" players perpetuating the system in different ways.

An alternative is the government implementing this system - and then why not the government (society as a whole) make those gains/rewards that occur? And I'd more imagine an international government than individual nations.

What I am trying to contrast it to is how it would look if everyone was already in this system, and then furthermore, if they were all brought into the system at once - having it mirror current resources and ownerships. This isn't easy to conceptualize either, as people's time is a resource - and what's the minimum value of a base unit of time?

Yes, giving reward speeds up how quickly the system will exist or seemingly be adopted by people, though it doesn't mean it's actually implemented in a secure and stable way. Its competitor is essentially money, so people who want to keep the status quo of money in place will be a very strong friction against Bitcoin. When people buy Bitcoin with real money, if they are the last ones, what they get from each Bitcoin will be less than what the early adopters do - which I feel is a very large disincentive for Bitcoin ever being fully adopted by everyone. And if 90% of people are now using Bitcoin for transactions, how much is real money actually worth? Those "late" adopters will not have places to spend that money, fewer and fewer, and so they end up absorbing the downside or rather they end up paying for the upside that current investors / early adopters are gaining. Is this wrong logic? If not, how is this fair? Simply saying "don't be the last!" isn't really an adequate response either. The value of real money won't decrease any time soon, though as a system similar to Bitcoin has higher adoption rate there will become a tipping point where people just won't accept real dollars in exchange for Bitcoin because they won't have as many places to spend it, it won't be as easily "liquidated."

The why is so you can create a system that doesn't punish or put "later adopters" at a disadvantage. If putting $1 in of current money into the system, and then the equivalent of $1 into the system 5 years from now gains you the same value, then that would be fair and balanced. There being a fixed amount of Bitcoin, that isn't structured to be immediately distributed to 100% of existing money, is a problem. It's currently structured to be a land grab, where land is a finite resource.

Perhaps I am missing some foundational understanding of how Bitcoin works and that is skewing my understanding and answers.

Re: Bitcoin and positive vs. normative economics

#272
post #159

I'm most bullish on bitcoin when I read articles such as this one, and most skeptical when I read the thoughts of the bitcoin believers. It's truly the most interesting technological development in years, if only because it reveals how little anyone really understands money or economics. Here's another interesting (though imperfect) way of thinking about bitcoin: it's a decentralized corporation, where bitcoins are o…

It is amazing how one word "COIN" added to this word has shaped everyone's thinking. Would we treat it the same if the guys behind it named it "Bitcard" or "Bitpoint?"

That one word is what set apparently most people to speak of it, and treat it as money.

BC is nothing like Money. BC is a card trading game where the players make the cards, the difficulty to make cards increases , and the value of the cards is decided by the market. It's a fun geek game. Awesome.

BC is everything money as we know it today is not. Money followed value creation (something made, something done).

Bitcoin was created, valued at X, AND THEN looking for value to replace.

Re: Bitcoin and positive vs. normative economics

#273
post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Bitcoin isn't a relatively stable store of value then there is no sane reason to use it purely for exchange. If you're able to send dollars to Coinbase or MtGox and the end user is able to receive dollars from Coinbase or MtGox, chances are you can cut out the middleman and the liquidity risk by sending them direct, at similar or lower transaction costs. The equation looks a bit different if you're holding non-tri…

You're ignoring transactions where Bitcoin is exchanged for actual goods or services, or for non-monetary financial instruments like stocks. In such transactions Bitcoin doesn't have to be a store of value; it only has to be a medium of exchange. The same applies to traditional forms of money, which was my point. It's true that there aren't many ways to exchange Bitcoin for actual goods or services or non-monetary fi…

People won't accept Bitcoin for actual goods and services if they don't believe it will hold its value. Or more precisely, they will require you to pay x% more in Bitcoin (at current exchange rates) where x is a premium to account for the expected loss in value over the period they expect to hold the Bitcoins, plus a margin for risk. If that premium happens to be higher than the cost of transacting in an alternative currency, Bitcoin is useless as a means of exchange.

Personally I'd see "governments have a huge incentive to outlaw it" as a pretty major inherent inferiority in something purporting to be currency too...

Re: Bitcoin and positive vs. normative economics

#274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not a libertarian and do not have a political agenda, but it is imaginable that certain parts of the government could be replaced with the structure like this one. I don't know how the transition could happen, but at the end, the mining in the network will be done by citizens, bitcoins will be named "bitvotes", and every citizen will mine those bitvotes, or they could be distributed fairy (one bitvote to each ci…

Voting is a solved problem. I’m not saying that the idea of using bitcoin technology to solve problems beside monetary systems is a bad idea (in fact, I think it’s a very interesting concept), but really, democracies around the world already have established and efficient voting systems that work well enough.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bush_v._Gore

(Admittedly over a decade old now)

I think the point is that our current voting systems require a measure of trust, where a blockchain based system could be trustless.

Re: Bitcoin and positive vs. normative economics

#275

Krugman is to Bitcoin as Ebert was to video games. The central failure of Krugman's understanding of cryptocurrencies is in the value of mining. It's not simply throwing energy away into solving useless math problems; it's spending energy to create infrastructure. That infrastructure is the part that does have intrinsic value, that can be used for something else in the same way gold can be made into useful things. Lo…

I don't think you're understanding Krugman's point.

If the gold price collapses, you can sell it to jewelry and electronics manufacturers at some (low) price point. Gold has a weakness as a store of value because this price point is a lot lower than its market price during good times - and this is why Krugman is also not in favor of it as a store of value.

If the price of the dollar collapses, you can sell it to the Fed (usually indirectly - the Fed sells debt and then sits on the proceeds). This floor is pretty solid, cf. Volcker's recession in the early 1980s.

If the price of Bitcoin collapses, you can't sell the electricity used to produce it onto the grid - that electricity is a sunk cost. So what provides a floor to the Bitcoin price if for whatever reason its value suddenly falls? Probably only its utility as a medium of exchange, which in an era of electronic exchanges lasting fractions of a second probably doesn't provide a huge demand for the stuff.

Re: Bitcoin and positive vs. normative economics

#276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, keynes says that the middle class will be outraged at arbitrary redistribution of wealth (especially to the wealthy) and the poor will be hurt harder (no comments on whether or not they are outraged). Consider a poor family spending about 90% of their income on day to day expenses; versus a rich family spending 20% of their income - if there's 10% inflation, the poor family will go from a 10% margin of survival t…

The reality is inevitably more complicated than stylised examples: most obviously because wages tend to be directly or indirectly linked to inflation. In general, a person tending to spend virtually all their income within a month of earning it will lose out less than someone who hoards their wealth; if they're due a 2% annual pay rise and the Central Bank is pretty good at keeping inflation within a 2% range they're…

one, you're crazy thinking that wealthy people hoard their wealth in dollars.

two, if you think people won't consume if the money is deflationary, you're crazy. The US had net deflation for most of its history (except during wars) from 1600-1910, and certainly there was plenty of growth. Also, analogous to the "why do you ever bother buying computers knowing that they depreciate rapidly".

three. If you think laborers get paid wages that match inflation, you are crazy. In fact, as krugman himself states: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/13/the-case-for-hig... " that there’s another case for a higher inflation rate ... It goes like this: even in the long run, it’s really, really hard to cut nominal wages. Yet when you have very low inflation, getting relative wages right would require that a significant number of workers take wage cuts. So having a somewhat higher inflation rate would lead to lower unemployment, not just temporarily, but on a sustained basis."

You cannot simultaneously make the claim that inflation will fix the sticky wages problem and also claim that wages will catch up with inflation.

four. "when "bury it under the ground" isn't an acceptable investment strategy earning average returns, more real goods and services will be produced." in other words, artificially encourage people to spend so as to enrich the already-wealthy. This should give a hint as to where the wealthy actually do store their wealth, and why inflation benefits them while stealing from the poor. Related: Encourage people to artificially spend more money on stuff they don't need without regard to the downstream environmental effects of increased consumption.

Re: Bitcoin and positive vs. normative economics

#279
post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

... Why? It seems to me that it works the same as any system with early adopters willing to take on risk. People that got into twitter early make more than people who get in later, without any necessary correlation to how much work they've contributed. Early investors in a company often put in no work beyond their capital, should their shares be redistributed after it becomes a sure thing? If bitcoin fails, the losse…

I feel your comparison is apples and oranges, other than that the current structure of Bitcoin gives gain to early adopters, and early adopters / investors in a business potentially allows investors to have higher gains. However they are different systems. Why can't the system exist just based on the incentive of the value that system brings? Why can't that be reward enough? The issue here is allocation of resources…

It has to be structured such that there is first mover advantage otherwise there is no incentive for anybody to get on board and make it a thing in the first place.

The redistribution of wealth is something that we've learned to deal with once already (progressive taxation) so hopefully we can learn how to do it again with cryptocurrencies.

Re: Bitcoin and positive vs. normative economics

#280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't think of the phrase "welfare state" as pejorative But since many others do, then it is. It is not the speaker which decides whether insult was intended, but the listener.

I'm sorry if I offended you in some way. "Welfare state" is a widely accepted academic term, and I was using it in that context. I could just as easily have said "states with very progressive tax systems that offer substantial benefits to all citizens, rather than only those who pay." It would have gone over better with those of us who feel strongly about a US transfer payment system ("welfare"), but it didn't really…

I wasn't offended, I was merely pointing out that saying you don't think of it that way isn't really what matters in these matters; what others think is.

But sure, talk about the policy, though I didn't disagree with anything you said policy related.

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