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The Decline and Fall of the American Empire (2010)

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Re: The Decline and Fall of the American Empire (2010)

#11

Post by icegreentea »

michaelochurch wrote: post #8

No one can predict the future, and this is sensationalism and speculation, not reasoned journalism. Let's talk about the "fall" of the UK. The British have universal healthcare and London is a leading global city. The biggest things that can be said for bad about the UK are (1) that London is extremely expensive, and (2) that the weather sucks. (1) is true but hardly seems to have anything to do with global decline;…

It's difficult to make a comparison to the British since as the British empire flagged, they went ahead and hitched their fortunes to the rising American "empire". I don't think its unreasonable to say that Europe (and much of Western Europe) has benefited much from their attachment to the "American way", despite whatever differences there are between all the countries.

The question is: what happens when empires fall? And there is no answer to that without knowing that replaces them. The British lost prestige, and actual power, but gained a favoured seat at the new game's table. Presuming a world dominated by China, where does America fit in? I have no idea. I agree that its likely -not- going to be catastrophic, but there are just so many unknowns, and so much depends on exactly what kind landing there is.

And as inciting as the idea of the global elite who lord over us regardless of our nationality... I don't think the Chinese would appreciate a bunch of white guys "running" the show afterwards. Just as generations of Western Europeans and Americans where able to enter regions and dominate or co-opt the local elite through superior resources and means, the Chinese will do the same.

Re: The Decline and Fall of the American Empire (2010)

#13

Post by tgautier »

eugenejen wrote: post #9
mynameishere wrote: post #6

Most empires end through overreach. The tiny nuggets at the center of the Roman, Mongol, Ottoman, British, Austrian, Spanish, Portuguese, Dutch, German and Japanese empires couldn't maintain the many nationalities they lorded over. So they collapsed. The Soviets lasted a long time, despite their worthless, murderous government, simply because the Russians had a huge core in the center. The American empire received it…

the sad thing is that you have such weak confidence in U.S.A.'s capability to assimilating immigrants. Of course I admit it is harder to assimilate Muslims. But East Asians? East Asians are probably more white than white in accepting U.S.A value system.

More white than white?

This doesn't seem to me like a sane value system.

Re: The Decline and Fall of the American Empire (2010)

#14

Post by dasil003 »

The ridiculous thing is that there's no reason America has to be in decline right now except hubris. The idea that military superiority is the end-all-be-all of power, the idea that every American deserves to be richer than than the average Chinese, etc. We still have amazing natural resources and an amazing entrepreneurial can-do cultural attitude.

The problem is too many resources devoted to skimming the cream at the top of the economy, decade after decade of ill-advised military waste, too much easy money in finance, too gullible of a pacified electorate ready and willing to vote against their interests at the siren song of two parties who claim to represent their values, but spend 95% of their time fundraising and earning it from the private interests who expect their ear.

If as a country we got back to the basics of hard work and innovation and spent less time hand-wringing over our safety and global dominance, and making sure that the GDP is growing at all costs, then I think we'd be well positioned for the coming centuries of increased parity between countries. Insistence that we have to maintain the post-WWII imbalance that America enjoyed due entirely to a accidental confluence of events is foolhardy and will lead to bad decisions.

Re: The Decline and Fall of the American Empire (2010)

#15

Post by everyone »

This article does not mention climate change, salinization, loss of glaciers (to feed rivers) contamination of soil and groundwater (from mining or maybe all the fracking the US has been doing) over-irrigation. These and others are real threats the US faces and will result in reduced fresh water and food.

Re: The Decline and Fall of the American Empire (2010)

#16

Post by Zigurd »

dasil003 wrote: post #14

The ridiculous thing is that there's no reason America has to be in decline right now except hubris. The idea that military superiority is the end-all-be-all of power, the idea that every American deserves to be richer than than the average Chinese, etc. We still have amazing natural resources and an amazing entrepreneurial can-do cultural attitude. The problem is too many resources devoted to skimming the cream at t…

Imagine if, instead of wars, PMCs, and MRAPs, those trillions had been spent on a thorium "moon shot" and creating a system of individualized education. We wasted the opportunity at the end of the Cold War.

Re: The Decline and Fall of the American Empire (2010)

#17

Post by __--__ »

eugenejen wrote: post #9
mynameishere wrote: post #6

Most empires end through overreach. The tiny nuggets at the center of the Roman, Mongol, Ottoman, British, Austrian, Spanish, Portuguese, Dutch, German and Japanese empires couldn't maintain the many nationalities they lorded over. So they collapsed. The Soviets lasted a long time, despite their worthless, murderous government, simply because the Russians had a huge core in the center. The American empire received it…

the sad thing is that you have such weak confidence in U.S.A.'s capability to assimilating immigrants. Of course I admit it is harder to assimilate Muslims. But East Asians? East Asians are probably more white than white in accepting U.S.A value system.

That's because they were assimilated before the age of PC and multiculturalism. We used to insist that immigrants adopt the same culture and values that we have. Now, we encourage those people to recreate their own cultures here, only better.

Re: The Decline and Fall of the American Empire (2010)

#18

Post by [deleted] »

dasil003 wrote: post #14

The ridiculous thing is that there's no reason America has to be in decline right now except hubris. The idea that military superiority is the end-all-be-all of power, the idea that every American deserves to be richer than than the average Chinese, etc. We still have amazing natural resources and an amazing entrepreneurial can-do cultural attitude. The problem is too many resources devoted to skimming the cream at t…

[deleted]

Re: The Decline and Fall of the American Empire (2010)

#19

Post by snowwrestler »

The article is giving me a 502, so I'll just say this:

I think the American decline is a lot like the iPad market share.

Most nations today are peaceful market economies who believe in individual rights and trading internationally. As a result, the U.S. is becoming less "indispensable". Is that something to fear, lament...or to celebrate?

As a U.S. citizen I'm bullish on the future.

Re: The Decline and Fall of the American Empire (2010)

#20

Post by sologoub »

michaelochurch wrote: post #8

No one can predict the future, and this is sensationalism and speculation, not reasoned journalism. Let's talk about the "fall" of the UK. The British have universal healthcare and London is a leading global city. The biggest things that can be said for bad about the UK are (1) that London is extremely expensive, and (2) that the weather sucks. (1) is true but hardly seems to have anything to do with global decline;…

Here's an article from 1995 titled "Japan May Still Surpass U.s. To Become Leading Economic Power By The Year 2000":http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1995-04-10/business/95041...

While the overall trajectory maybe right, the comparisons between the likes of USSR is really incorrect. The actual "fall" of the USSR came at the dissolution of the lands conquered by the old Russian Empire. The tensions driving that, besides obvious greed for money and power, were that those pieces weren't always together to begin with. Russia, Belarus and most of Ukraine were, but much of the rest was absorbed through violence. Even today, Ukraine's west and east are at odds with each other - one part wanting to come back to Russia and the other wanting to go back to Poland/Europe.

The military strength is likely to depend a lot more on unmanned machinery in the next few decades rather than on human soldiers. If true, that would erode much of the advantage China and India hold from the sheer numbers stand point.

Economically, China may very well develop to be #1. That said, they do have a long road ahead of them in terms of really sustaining their own buying behaviors. Currently, US is #1 through much of its own consumption. This is a very remarkable feat. The extremely robust domestic market is not something most other countries can really boast. Currently, both India and China need others to consume a very large share of what they produce. While I'm not really sure of all the measures McKinsey analysts are using here, it is a good illustration of just how much China still depends on exports: http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/globalization/a_truer_pictu...

The article does note a shift to more finished goods export and focus on the internal market, it is far from a complete process. Incidentally, these shifts and the strengthening of the middle class that seems so vital, will also likely bring about more political unrest.

India is likely to experience social issues as the population gets wealthier, as shown by the recent debacle with the Indian diplomat and her house servant...

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