Bitcoin Value Sinks After Chinese Exchange Move • Hacker News Board

Re: Bitcoin Value Sinks After Chinese Exchange Move

#71

Post by forgotmycreds » Wed, Dec 18, 2013, 2:25 PM UTC

killerpopiller wrote: post #32

I came here for some opinions on where the dive ends. Will we see the BT under 200$?

If you look long enough you can see the end of all things.

Bitcoins, I as an outsider have to say that many people will be tempted to buy because of the low price. This low price is being advertised by lots of people as a reason to buy, probably trying to mask the news of China not allowing the business. What big economy has accepted bitcoin as a currency? Edit: What reason is there to be optimistic about the bitcoins.

Re: Bitcoin Value Sinks After Chinese Exchange Move

#72

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Dec 18, 2013, 2:28 PM UTC

altoz wrote: post #62

ivanplenty wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a few things weird about this story. Are you really proud you have a leveraged position in bitcoin? Isn't that among the riskiest positions you can take on a very volatile, illiquid, and possibly illegal asset? That's totally a personal choice, but it's certainly not one I would or a typical retail investor should ever take. Your decision to buy-and-hold during a sell off in the Spring is at best an anecdote…

Please spare us the lecture on what an investor should and should not do. What someone does with their money is their choice and the consequences of what happens with that money is their consequence.

[deleted]

Re: Bitcoin Value Sinks After Chinese Exchange Move

#73

Post by dopamean » Wed, Dec 18, 2013, 2:29 PM UTC

smtddr wrote: post #28

SamReidHughes wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Probably a great time to buy. Why?

It's possible, but not too likely at all at this point, that China will reverse this decision. I don't know how far BTC will fall, but let me tell you this. If it falls to under $10 like this person[1] says, I'm going all in... $5,000 USD's worth because I'm a fool. If, by some improbable & unfeasible way, China does reverse and BTC reaches $1,000+ again my cheers will be so loud that everyone on HN will actually hea…

What makes you think it's possible China will reverse it's decision? This reads like wishful thinking.

Re: Bitcoin Value Sinks After Chinese Exchange Move

#74

Post by harvestmoon » Wed, Dec 18, 2013, 2:29 PM UTC

confluence wrote: post #36

master_shake wrote: post #10

In April, I watched the price of bitcoin every day. When it approached $200 I said "f*ck it," took out a student loan and bought in at $225. The VERY NEXT DAY the price collapsed. I watched bitcoin slide to $50 in a state of complete and utter devastation. I felt so stupid. I decided not to sell, and just considered the loan to be a write-off. Point being, you should assess the quality of your investment in years, no…

In 08' pension funds got wiped out. They felt so stupid. They decided not to sell, and just considered their loans a write-off. They stayed written off. You should assess the quality of your investment in utility, not years. And in regards to Bitcoin, allow me to quote myself > Everything goes up in price, until it doesn't.

Reminds me of the reassuring heart surgeon saying:

"The bleeding always stops."

Re: Bitcoin Value Sinks After Chinese Exchange Move

#75

Post by ye » Wed, Dec 18, 2013, 2:47 PM UTC

jackgavigan wrote: post #56

Predictable outcome is predictable: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6818821 Anyone who thought the Chinese government were going to ignore a mechanism that allowed people to bypass capital controls with impunity was pretty naive. Bitcoin fanboys have classic tunnel vision - they're so enamoured of the libertarian ideal of an anonymous crypto-currency that's not controlled by any government, that they ignored all…

China is a big player, but it's just one of many.

But even China can't stop bitcoin from being used in China. They just made it harder, that's all.

Bitcoin keeps getting adopted, the infrastructure is getting built, better software is being written. Whether you like it or not, it's getting more popular, that's just a fact.

I predict it will take Western Union and Money Gram and many smaller money transferers out of business in a few years. I'm sort-of confident it will take a significant portion of Paypal's business as well.

Re: Bitcoin Value Sinks After Chinese Exchange Move

#76

Post by LargeWu » Wed, Dec 18, 2013, 2:54 PM UTC

mdemare wrote: post #41

dualogy wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I keep hearing this but I never see any angle to this statement where it could possibly be true.

An investment is productive - buying a share in a company allows that company to increase production, which should increase their profit. Lending money to a company allows that company to invest, and increase their profits. Buying BTC is nothing like that. It's speculation - hoping that the price will go up, nothing more.

FWIW, most "investments" that regular people make in the stock market are also, in fact, speculation. Once the stock has been issued originally, the issuing company receives no proceeds from subsequent sales of that stock. There might be secondary or tertiary effects that eventually lead to real investment, but for the most part, the majority of American's retirement savings are in speculative holdings.

Re: Bitcoin Value Sinks After Chinese Exchange Move

#77

Post by ohashi » Wed, Dec 18, 2013, 3:21 PM UTC

BrokenPipe wrote: post #57

taspeotis wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's down to ~480 so it's lost $100 in 30 minutes. Let's just say that my strange way of picking numbers can be described as "flattering" ... at worst.

Today I've seen it back at 530 and now at 520. Who knows, I wouldn't be surprised if by EOB we're back above 600. As parent said, with Bitcoin you have to look at things in a different way since it works in a very different way than anything else we've ever seen.

But does it really? It looks like rampant speculation to me. I've seen that many times in markets.

Re: Bitcoin Value Sinks After Chinese Exchange Move

#78

Post by kordless » Wed, Dec 18, 2013, 3:23 PM UTC

vectorpush wrote: post #69

jackgavigan wrote: post #56

Predictable outcome is predictable: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6818821 Anyone who thought the Chinese government were going to ignore a mechanism that allowed people to bypass capital controls with impunity was pretty naive. Bitcoin fanboys have classic tunnel vision - they're so enamoured of the libertarian ideal of an anonymous crypto-currency that's not controlled by any government, that they ignored all…

Bitcoin fanboys have classic tunnel vision - they're so enamoured of the libertarian ideal of an anonymous crypto-currency that's not controlled by any government, that they ignored all the practical, economic and legal challenges it would need to overcome before it could become a real currency. I am always amazed by the condescending tone of know it all speculators who think they've got it all figured it out. Labeli…

Blaming statements are pretty easy to spot if you know the signposts for them. Indicating a current outcome is 'predictable' because you said it was going to happen is a form of confirmation bias. Making a self referential comment to bolster his opinion sets the tone for the rest of the blaming argument that follows. Also, there the fact he didn't actually publicly call it first: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6818680.

As you point out, the terms 'fanboy', 'tunnel vision' and 'libertarian' can be tactics to market a particular opinion. Ad hominem arguments are always a good indication someone is making blaming statements. I'm personally enamored with the fact that cryptocurrencies instantiate trust at their core because trust is important to me. That's not necessarily a libertarian viewpoint, so clumping me in with a group of libertarians effectively blames me for something that I'm not guilty of. FWIW, I don't have a beef with Libertarians, and may be one for all I know.

BTW, making a coy remark about his 'intelligence' and speaking for his future actions are blaming statements in themselves. It isn't helping the conversation much by doing that.

Re: Bitcoin Value Sinks After Chinese Exchange Move

#79

Post by achughes » Wed, Dec 18, 2013, 3:26 PM UTC

celticninja wrote: post #45

ivanplenty wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a few things weird about this story. Are you really proud you have a leveraged position in bitcoin? Isn't that among the riskiest positions you can take on a very volatile, illiquid, and possibly illegal asset? That's totally a personal choice, but it's certainly not one I would or a typical retail investor should ever take. Your decision to buy-and-hold during a sell off in the Spring is at best an anecdote…

i love how you are telling him it was a dumb idea, when you have no idea if he sold enough at $1100 to cover his student loan, or that right now he is still in a position where he has doubled his money in a matter of months regardless of this crash. Too many people offering investment advice in hindsight round here.

Just because it worked out well in the end doesn't mean it was a good idea to begin with

Re: Bitcoin Value Sinks After Chinese Exchange Move

#80

Post by kordless » Wed, Dec 18, 2013, 3:48 PM UTC

jackgavigan wrote: post #56

Predictable outcome is predictable: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6818821 Anyone who thought the Chinese government were going to ignore a mechanism that allowed people to bypass capital controls with impunity was pretty naive. Bitcoin fanboys have classic tunnel vision - they're so enamoured of the libertarian ideal of an anonymous crypto-currency that's not controlled by any government, that they ignored all…

My tendency is to not agree with you, mostly due to your tone - see my note to vectorpush below for clarification.

Regardless, I hear you in that there challenges to be overcome to effect wide-spread adoption of this technology platform into the current financial markets. There is always a constant challenge in architecting, securing and operating financial networks. Innovation in these areas never stops, and it is unreasonable to assume we're going to adopt something long term that is insecure or outright broken. We are driven by trust, greed and fear, after all. I don't trust you and I think you are going to steal my money. I love my money, so I will take measures to protect it long-term.

Bitcoin is complex, and I've observed people having difficulty digesting the details on how it works. One thing of value that appears to be overlooked is the fact that Bitcoin is being secured by individuals (miners) putting power into the system. That power is used to compute the encryption used to secure the coins. Some have put the time to crack a single bitcoin key at 82 billion years.

The fact that Bitcoin is secured via power put into the system, currently around 7 quadrillion hashes per second, needs to be considered when discussing adoption trends. The value brought to this market by that computing power cannot be ignored.

It is, to put it succinctly, a platform of trust powered by the most massive compute engine humanity has ever built.