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China bans new Bitcoin deposits

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Re: China bans new Bitcoin deposits

#81

Post by qq66 »

sillysaurus2 wrote: post #7

I present, for your satisfaction, my comment from two weeks ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6829180 Along with this gem: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6858258 In summary, I invested $11k @ $1106/coin, predicting it'd rise to $1,500. Shazam! I've transmuted that $11k into... let's see ... $5,100. I feel pretty ill. Thought you'd all enjoy the schadenfreude, and perhaps learn from my example: "How to i…

One problem I notice in looking at your linked comment is that your $1,500 prediction was based on no rationale whatsoever. That makes it more of a wish than a prediction.

Re: China bans new Bitcoin deposits

#82

Post by flexie »

sillysaurus2 wrote: post #7

I present, for your satisfaction, my comment from two weeks ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6829180 Along with this gem: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6858258 In summary, I invested $11k @ $1106/coin, predicting it'd rise to $1,500. Shazam! I've transmuted that $11k into... let's see ... $5,100. I feel pretty ill. Thought you'd all enjoy the schadenfreude, and perhaps learn from my example: "How to i…

Sorry to hear that you lost money.

Bitcoins are up against some really big competitors called nation states and supranational unions. It's almost like trying to run a private army. Once you get big enough to impose a threat you will be outlawed, one way or the other. There is no power, no legislature behind bitcoins, so bitcoin holders will lose the regulatory game.

Nation states use their traditional currencies in monetary policies and they depend on their currencies for tax revenues. Not being able to control the amount of bitcoins and not being able to tax them effectively because they flow outside of institutions that can be controlled and because transactions are encrypted means that the bitcoin is a threat to nation states.

Danish tax authorities are currently looking into how bitcoins should be taxed and I think they will follow the Norwegian example and tax them as assets. Most important governments will eventually make life hard on bitcoins either by outlawing them flat out, by out-taxing them or in other ways.

Re: China bans new Bitcoin deposits

#83

Post by qq66 »

meritt wrote: post #28
sillysaurus2 wrote: post #7

I present, for your satisfaction, my comment from two weeks ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6829180 Along with this gem: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6858258 In summary, I invested $11k @ $1106/coin, predicting it'd rise to $1,500. Shazam! I've transmuted that $11k into... let's see ... $5,100. I feel pretty ill. Thought you'd all enjoy the schadenfreude, and perhaps learn from my example: "How to i…

BTC will hit ~$400 before it stabilizes and resumes upward progression.

What's the reasoning behind that?

Re: China bans new Bitcoin deposits

#84

Post by camus2 »

Fuxy wrote: post #30
corin_ wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who knows, maybe the example to learn from is not getting scared when you go from $11k to $5.1k and waiting for a month until it's up to $20k. On the other hand, maybe it's that you should sell having only lost $5.9k rather than wait until that $5.1k drops to $5.10.

Depends on your wager. If you think bit-coin will never rise again sell now and walk away wounded. But that wager makes no sense at all since people accidentally delete there wallets all the time and there's a limited supply of bit-coins. If you factor in time bit-coin can only go up as long as people are still using it and i have confidence bit-coin will reach wide adoption.

TLDR; you are gambling.

Re: China bans new Bitcoin deposits

#85

Post by kybernetikos »

erikpukinskis wrote: post #21
sillysaurus2 wrote: post #7

I present, for your satisfaction, my comment from two weeks ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6829180 Along with this gem: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6858258 In summary, I invested $11k @ $1106/coin, predicting it'd rise to $1,500. Shazam! I've transmuted that $11k into... let's see ... $5,100. I feel pretty ill. Thought you'd all enjoy the schadenfreude, and perhaps learn from my example: "How to i…

You just have to pick a target. I feel confident that Bitcoin is worth $10k, so if I bought at any price below that, I should feel good about where I am. If you don't decide what you think something is worth, your subjective experience of investing in it will be a rollercoaster. If you do choose a price target, then you know where you stand at all times, and whether you should buy or sell.

> If you do choose a price target, then you know where you stand at all times, and whether you should buy or sell.

As well as choosing a price target, you should choose a set of situations that will falsify your price target so you aren't committed to losing all your money on one bet if you're wrong.

Re: China bans new Bitcoin deposits

#86

Post by babesh »

kybernetikos wrote: post #78
corin_ wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who knows, maybe the example to learn from is not getting scared when you go from $11k to $5.1k and waiting for a month until it's up to $20k. On the other hand, maybe it's that you should sell having only lost $5.9k rather than wait until that $5.1k drops to $5.10.

You suggest that the lesson should be based on the outcome, but actually in the presence of significant random noise/unknowns, that's not always true. It's quite possible to make bad decisions that turn out well and good decisions that turn out badly. To learn the correct lessons, he needs to work out if his original plan was sensible given what he knew (or could reasonably find out) at the time and he's just unlucky…

Part of the available information is that you often understand or know very little. Sometimes judgement that a bubble will take place makes far more money than investing for the long term.

Re: China bans new Bitcoin deposits

#87

Post by ejhong »

SwellJoe wrote: post #31
sillysaurus2 wrote: post #7

I present, for your satisfaction, my comment from two weeks ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6829180 Along with this gem: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6858258 In summary, I invested $11k @ $1106/coin, predicting it'd rise to $1,500. Shazam! I've transmuted that $11k into... let's see ... $5,100. I feel pretty ill. Thought you'd all enjoy the schadenfreude, and perhaps learn from my example: "How to i…

For what it's worth, I'm looking at this as a buying opportunity. I put everything I had available into BTC during rise to $1000+ (I first invested early, so I'm just about breaking even right now, though if it drops any further, I'll be showing a loss). But, I've got a paycheck coming in soon, and it looks like prices are gonna be nice enough for me to buy a couple more BTC with that money. I'm longterm bullish on B…

The sad thing is that the right time to invest is when things are looking bleak (and I think we may still have a ways to go down) but most people are drawn in when the price is high. So for those of you on the sidelines, I think we may have some good opportunities to get in during the coming months.

Re: China bans new Bitcoin deposits

#89

Post by wouaouw »

sillysaurus2 wrote: post #7

I present, for your satisfaction, my comment from two weeks ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6829180 Along with this gem: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6858258 In summary, I invested $11k @ $1106/coin, predicting it'd rise to $1,500. Shazam! I've transmuted that $11k into... let's see ... $5,100. I feel pretty ill. Thought you'd all enjoy the schadenfreude, and perhaps learn from my example: "How to i…

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg1460ztgSzbgBza1gS...

How did you expect the price to keep climbing ? Now you need to wait a few weeks/month until we go back to the normal trend.

Re: China bans new Bitcoin deposits

#90

Post by [deleted] »

flexie wrote: post #82
sillysaurus2 wrote: post #7

I present, for your satisfaction, my comment from two weeks ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6829180 Along with this gem: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6858258 In summary, I invested $11k @ $1106/coin, predicting it'd rise to $1,500. Shazam! I've transmuted that $11k into... let's see ... $5,100. I feel pretty ill. Thought you'd all enjoy the schadenfreude, and perhaps learn from my example: "How to i…

Sorry to hear that you lost money. Bitcoins are up against some really big competitors called nation states and supranational unions. It's almost like trying to run a private army. Once you get big enough to impose a threat you will be outlawed, one way or the other. There is no power, no legislature behind bitcoins, so bitcoin holders will lose the regulatory game. Nation states use their traditional currencies in m…

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