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David Deutsch On Artificial Intelligence

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Re: David Deutsch On Artificial Intelligence

#41
>observing on thousands of consecutive occasions that on calendars the first two digits of the year were ‘19’. I never observed a single exception until, one day, they started being ‘20’...

...it is simply not true that knowledge comes from extrapolating repeated observations. Nor is it true that ‘the future is like the past’, in any sense that one could detect in advance without already knowing the explanation.

This is obviously untrue. You could train a machine learning algorithm to count easily just by showing it examples of numbers. This is how we teach human children to count, by showing them examples. Not giving them some magical "explanation".

And he goes on to base the rest of his argument on this point.

>Some people are wondering whether we should welcome our new robot overlords. Some hope to learn how we can rig their programming to make them constitutionally unable to harm humans (as in Isaac Asimov’s ‘laws of robotics’), or to prevent them from acquiring the theory that the universe should be converted into paper clips (as imagined by Nick Bostrom). None of these are the real problem. It has always been the case that a single exceptionally creative person can be thousands of times as productive — economically, intellectually or whatever — as most people; and that such a person could do enormous harm were he to turn his powers to evil instead of good.

Einstein's brain was only slightly different than any other human's, even the dumbest village idiot. Humans themselves are only slightly different than chimpanzees.

So yes, an AI with a brain of entirely different architecture, running on computers millions of times faster and several times larger than a human brain, would indeed be pretty concerning.

Re: David Deutsch On Artificial Intelligence

#42
> Despite this long record of failure, AGI must be possible. And that is because of a deep property of the laws of physics, namely the universality of computation.

This actually doesn't follow. It is logically possible that general intelligence is the result of a non-physical process (or at least a process outside any conception of known physics). It could be, as philosophers have put it, a homunculus that interfaces with but is not a part of the physical brain.

Or take the brain-in-the-vat hypothesis. It could be that intelligence/consciousness is the result of some process that can't be modeled within the physics of the simulation, and can only be injected from "outside" the system. This already happens, actually; there are demonstrably intelligent entities in World of Warcraft (the human players) but that doesn't imply that the computer physics of the WOW game engine are sufficient to model intelligence.

Re: David Deutsch On Artificial Intelligence

#43
post #42

> Despite this long record of failure, AGI must be possible. And that is because of a deep property of the laws of physics, namely the universality of computation. This actually doesn't follow. It is logically possible that general intelligence is the result of a non-physical process (or at least a process outside any conception of known physics). It could be, as philosophers have put it, a homunculus that interfaces…

It's not 100% proven that "souls" don't exist, but I would bet money that intelligence can be explained by the laws of physics just like every other scientific mystery. At one time people thought life was basically magic and too complicated to understand.

Re: David Deutsch On Artificial Intelligence

#44
post #42

> Despite this long record of failure, AGI must be possible. And that is because of a deep property of the laws of physics, namely the universality of computation. This actually doesn't follow. It is logically possible that general intelligence is the result of a non-physical process (or at least a process outside any conception of known physics). It could be, as philosophers have put it, a homunculus that interfaces…

If these were true, It would mean that atoms in our brain violate physics as we know it. This source of intelligence would be detectable, because it is significant enough for neurons to detect it.

The hidden premise of the quote is that that we have observed brains enough to be confident that they are running on physics.

Re: David Deutsch On Artificial Intelligence

#45
"or that increased computer power will bring it forth (as if someone had already written an AGI program but it takes a year to utter each sentence)."

No, 1000 years would be more like it, if you add in the years it takes to learn language.

Here's my very quick and dirty calculation:

A rough estimate of brain data throughput would be 100 billion neurons x 200 firings per second x 1,000 connections each = 20,000,000,000,000,000 bits of info transmitted per second. 20 million gigabits (20 petabits) of information move around your brain every second.

The biggest/fastest numbers I can find for an IC is going to be about 3 billion transistors x 8Ghz x 3 (connections per transistor) = 6,480,000,000,000 = 6.5 Terabits per second.

20 petabits -vs- 6.5 Terabits, that's roughly 3 orders of magnitude difference. If someone wrote a true AGI today, it may well still take 1000 years to do what humans can learn and accomplish in one year (assuming moving bits of data is the key to AGI).

Re: David Deutsch On Artificial Intelligence

#46
post #42

> Despite this long record of failure, AGI must be possible. And that is because of a deep property of the laws of physics, namely the universality of computation. This actually doesn't follow. It is logically possible that general intelligence is the result of a non-physical process (or at least a process outside any conception of known physics). It could be, as philosophers have put it, a homunculus that interfaces…

It's not 100% proven that "souls" don't exist, but I would bet money that intelligence can be explained by the laws of physics just like every other scientific mystery. At one time people thought life was basically magic and too complicated to understand.

I wouldn't bet against you, just pointing out that he's working from a hefty (if legitimate) assumption.

Re: David Deutsch On Artificial Intelligence

#47
I think you could get pretty close to general intelligence by modeling three properties in a computer program. Each of these is difficult, but not outside the realm of possibility.

- Awareness of environment, including self. It would need to be able to re-program itself

- Ability to form intention. It would need to be able to form objectives and utilize the first property to accomplish them. Also, information gathered from the environment should be able to inform this.

- A creative function, constantly running, that constantly combines information from the first two inputs to form and re-form concepts.

I think that a program with these three aspects, running constantly, could eventually form opinions and act intelligently. The intention function could delve into the creative function and form intentions to refactor and make more efficient the mental processes.

It could have a representation of its own creative function in its environment, allowing the intention function to explore its own creativity as an environment. Connections between the three aspects would grow in this manner, and the program could become deeply introspective.

It would probably take a long time for it to be able to do anything like human-like thought. We could help the process along by restricting its environment and giving it 'games' to play. If it's sufficiently fluid in creating concepts, it could then reuse them for different games.

Re: David Deutsch On Artificial Intelligence

#48
post #26
post #16

I can just say that Deutsch is another victim of what being good at theoretical physics tends to do to one's mind. The amount of intellectual hubris and arrogance we can develop is staggering. Sheldon Cooper is not really a parody, it's what many theoretical physicists actually think (but are to socially adapted to say out loud), as in: "Penny - I'm a physicist. I have a working knowledge of the entire universe and e…

XKCD: Physicists -- http://xkcd.com/793/ :-) EDIT: I linked to XKCD here... cuz never miss an opportunity for xkcd! Also, I just finished reading the article, so I'll add my comments on the content. The parent post (for this comment) contains a rant about physicists but has no specific rebuttal of the article. David Deutsch's arguments seem very sensible to me, in a completely non-mystical sort of way. I feel he asks…

> The parent post (for this comment) contains a rant about physicists but has no specific rebuttal of the article.

It's not a rant about physicists (I am one, for the record), it's just that this is what I noticed--whenever there's an otherwise good scientist giving misguided proclamations on how some research field other than his should proceed, it's always the physicist. Maybe I'm biased in that I take extra notice of what physicists say, but anyway it's anegdotal and not the main point. What matters is: whoever you are, if you're going to seriously opine on a subject, beyond general methodological remarks (which are extremely important), you better have in depth knowledge of the subject matter. Example claim: "behaviourism is abandoned by mainstream psychology". I'll avoid discussing what he means by "mainstream" here (there could be all sorts of ugly dragons lurking behind this statement), and just say that this is false. The term behaviourism is not used anymore (it's not useful anymore to use it), but a huge deal of behavioural theory and results are still alive and well in psychology of cognition.

His central point, that "creativity" is the key to AGI, is meaningless the way he talks about it. Creative thinking is not a mysterious process, there is a lot of empirical work dealing with it. He further postulates that we need philosophical (of all things) breakthroughs. I can't help but think this is some sort of Chinese room style argument all over again. Having stated, multiple times, that philosophical/epistemological breakthroughs are needed, he speculates that maybe better understanding of genetic diffs between humans and other higher primates hold the key. It's all over the place. It's hard to give specific rebuttals to extremely vague ideas.

Thanks for the pointer to Dyson's article, found it and stashed it for later reading.

> And oh, to state possible biases on record: I'm a physicist :-)

Have you read Chesterton's The Man Who Was Thursday? This discussion is starting to feel like it, just do a %s/anarchists/physicists/g :)

Re: David Deutsch On Artificial Intelligence

#49
post #44
post #42

> Despite this long record of failure, AGI must be possible. And that is because of a deep property of the laws of physics, namely the universality of computation. This actually doesn't follow. It is logically possible that general intelligence is the result of a non-physical process (or at least a process outside any conception of known physics). It could be, as philosophers have put it, a homunculus that interfaces…

If these were true, It would mean that atoms in our brain violate physics as we know it. This source of intelligence would be detectable, because it is significant enough for neurons to detect it. The hidden premise of the quote is that that we have observed brains enough to be confident that they are running on physics.

The hidden premise of that, of course, is that we're done studying physics. Or the brain.

Re: David Deutsch On Artificial Intelligence

#50
post #34

The difficulty I'm having with this article is that many people, when discussing intelligence, invoke some specific capability, X; for Deutsch, X seems to be "creativity", for Penrose, X may or may not be the ability to grok the truth or falsehood of an arbitrary statement as if one has the personal cellphone number of God. Then, they go on to assert "computers (or whatever) cannot (currently) do X, therefore we need…

>Unfortunately, they never seem to provide proof that X exists, or is true

I think we can forgive Deutsch for this, because he's claiming that creativity is part of an unsolved philosophical problem. Which means we don't know how to think about it yet. We'll know when when we do know how to think about it because there'll suddenly arise answerable questions, proofs, definitions, and whatnot.

Unfortunately the Turing Test can't cut through the philosophical wrangling because, for example, imitating a human being successfully is not the same thing as evidence of thinking. Without an explanatory theory we wouldn't even know how to interpret the relevant evidence

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