Earlier quoted context omitted.
20 year old tech can avoid patent problems but I share you scepticism about the status of VP8/9. Agree H.264 is cheap but I think you underestimate how cheap. Internet delivered video that is not subscription or pay per view is free! http://www.mpegla.com/main/programs/avc/Documents/avcweb.pdf I'm actually sceptical that VP9 will be good enough and patent safe enough to dislodge H.265. From what I've read about Daala…
From what I understand, Daala is aimed at the generation after VP9/H.265, eg https://lwn.net/Articles/571978/ But I suspect you're right about VP9/H.265 decisions being made now, and royalty free alternatives keeping prices down even when the alternatives don't win a lot of market share (could say the same about the never-winning "linux desktop" -- it gets negligible seats, but may have shifted $$$ from Microsoft pro…
I don't think VP9 can win the current fight to be honest. I doubt it is patent free, or good enough. I also wonder if Google can cooperate in the way required to build support for it outside of its Android family.