This bitcoin graph has become so accurate again at the moment, it's scary • Hacker News Board

Re: This bitcoin graph has become so accurate again at the moment, it's scary

#21

Post by rthomas6 » Mon, Dec 09, 2013, 4:52 PM UTC

astrodust wrote: post #14

Aardwolf wrote: post #7

There are max 21 million bitcoins. There are 7 billion people. So there is 0.003 bitcoin per person. So if bitcoin will one day become "THE" currency, isn't it more than logical that 1BTC will become worth more than a million dollars or something like that (not that dollars would still exist at that time, but, 1BTC would be worth as much as an average group of 333 people owns)? Or am I misunderstanding something abou…

Could this comment be more Hacker News? There are not 7 billion people that this will impact. How many of those have no access to a computer of any sort, including a mobile phone? How many are under the age of ten? That cuts out a huge chunk from that figure. Then subtract all those too old to care about Bitcoin or internet anything. Then remove from that those that have little faith in anything they can't touch and…

>How many of those have no access to a computer of any sort, including a mobile phone?

Irrelevant to your point, but less than you might think. Currency transfer using texting is popular and highly functional in several poor African countries. I agree with your assessment that these people won't be affected by Bitcoin, but using mobile phones to send money is actually VERY common in some poor countries.

Re: This bitcoin graph has become so accurate again at the moment, it's scary

#22

Post by basch » Mon, Dec 09, 2013, 4:56 PM UTC

astrodust wrote: post #14

Aardwolf wrote: post #7

There are max 21 million bitcoins. There are 7 billion people. So there is 0.003 bitcoin per person. So if bitcoin will one day become "THE" currency, isn't it more than logical that 1BTC will become worth more than a million dollars or something like that (not that dollars would still exist at that time, but, 1BTC would be worth as much as an average group of 333 people owns)? Or am I misunderstanding something abou…

Could this comment be more Hacker News? There are not 7 billion people that this will impact. How many of those have no access to a computer of any sort, including a mobile phone? How many are under the age of ten? That cuts out a huge chunk from that figure. Then subtract all those too old to care about Bitcoin or internet anything. Then remove from that those that have little faith in anything they can't touch and…

How about, this is just one blockchain. Competing cryptocurrencies and blockchains give way more than 21 million coins.

Re: This bitcoin graph has become so accurate again at the moment, it's scary

#23

Post by basch » Mon, Dec 09, 2013, 4:56 PM UTC

GhotiFish wrote: post #19

patrickk wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So if bitcoin will one day become "THE" currency... That's the big question isn't it? Will bitcoin take over, or will another digital cryptocurrency conjured out of the ether take over? (bitcoin 2.0) > So there is 0.003 bitcoin per person. There's some bitcoin amounts that are likely lost forever, perhaps miners that lost their private keys or whatever, or forgot about their bitcoin wallet from the early days, whic…

I don't see why those coins can't re-enter the system. Just tell everyone that coins stagnent for over 10 years will re-enter the system through miners, and have people consolidate and refresh their holdings. There's no reason that old coins can't be reintroduced.

There is no reason to when the coins are infinity divisible.

Re: This bitcoin graph has become so accurate again at the moment, it's scary

#24

Post by Casseres » Mon, Dec 09, 2013, 5:02 PM UTC

a3voices wrote: post #12

ErikAugust wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've given this a little thought at least: http://erikaugust.com/blog/thought-on-bitcoin

Great way of looking at it. I wonder what percent of the money supply gold is at.

According to this website [0], the above-ground gold is valued at about $8.5 trillion USD. As this website [1] points out, the M2 amount of USD in the world's supply is $9 trillion. USD makes up about 15% of the total world's supple of $60 trillion.

This HN thread is by far the most interesting one I've read about speculating Bitcoin's future value.

[0] http://www.numbersleuth.org/worlds-gold/ [1] http://erikaugust.com/blog/thought-on-bitcoin

Re: This bitcoin graph has become so accurate again at the moment, it's scary

#25

Post by a3voices » Mon, Dec 09, 2013, 5:06 PM UTC

Casseres wrote: post #24

a3voices wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great way of looking at it. I wonder what percent of the money supply gold is at.

According to this website [0], the above-ground gold is valued at about $8.5 trillion USD. As this website [1] points out, the M2 amount of USD in the world's supply is $9 trillion. USD makes up about 15% of the total world's supple of $60 trillion. This HN thread is by far the most interesting one I've read about speculating Bitcoin's future value. [0] http://www.numbersleuth.org/worlds-gold/ [1] http://erikaugust.c…

By the way, I also find this page interesting: http://www.coinometrics.com/bitcoin/bmix

Re: This bitcoin graph has become so accurate again at the moment, it's scary

#26

Post by bonbon » Mon, Dec 09, 2013, 5:06 PM UTC

yxhuvud wrote: post #16

bonbon wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Theoretically right, but once you have bitcoin becoming mainstream currency, there will be different forks/alt coins that are also equally good and digital currency will be widespread instead of just bitcoin. Just a guess..

That is not a 'once' - it is an 'if', and a big one at that.

there is demand for bitcoin, i agree it is little demand for very few applications. Fad is something else. bitcoin is'nt born perfect but people are trying to solve its problems.

Re: This bitcoin graph has become so accurate again at the moment, it's scary

#27

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Dec 09, 2013, 5:09 PM UTC

a3voices wrote: post #3

bonbon wrote: post #2

It says: "It will end - rapidly - in an epic sell-off as people realise that there are no more greater fools above them" I was impressed with his prediction of the first top and drop. But if this will play out like the chart says it will. Well... impressive. What do you think?

It's incorrect since Bitcoin usage is still high. https://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses does not look bearish to me

[deleted]

Re: This bitcoin graph has become so accurate again at the moment, it's scary

#28

Post by viraptor » Mon, Dec 09, 2013, 5:25 PM UTC

basch wrote: post #23

GhotiFish wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see why those coins can't re-enter the system. Just tell everyone that coins stagnent for over 10 years will re-enter the system through miners, and have people consolidate and refresh their holdings. There's no reason that old coins can't be reintroduced.

There is no reason to when the coins are infinity divisible.

They are not. It's possible to divide, but there are limits.

Edit: not sure why this is downvoted. You can't divide one Satoshi, unless the protocol is updated.

Re: This bitcoin graph has become so accurate again at the moment, it's scary

#29

Post by panarky » Mon, Dec 09, 2013, 5:26 PM UTC

astrodust wrote: post #14

Aardwolf wrote: post #7

There are max 21 million bitcoins. There are 7 billion people. So there is 0.003 bitcoin per person. So if bitcoin will one day become "THE" currency, isn't it more than logical that 1BTC will become worth more than a million dollars or something like that (not that dollars would still exist at that time, but, 1BTC would be worth as much as an average group of 333 people owns)? Or am I misunderstanding something abou…

Could this comment be more Hacker News? There are not 7 billion people that this will impact. How many of those have no access to a computer of any sort, including a mobile phone? How many are under the age of ten? That cuts out a huge chunk from that figure. Then subtract all those too old to care about Bitcoin or internet anything. Then remove from that those that have little faith in anything they can't touch and…

> At this point Bitcoin isn't even as popular as Cuban Pesos.

Bitcoin replacing the US dollar is unrealistic.

But if it's this valuable at the Cuban-peso level, how valuable will it be when it's as popular as, say, Canadian dollars or South African rand?

Re: This bitcoin graph has become so accurate again at the moment, it's scary

#30

Post by Atroxide » Mon, Dec 09, 2013, 6:37 PM UTC

viraptor wrote: post #28

basch wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no reason to when the coins are infinity divisible.

They are not. It's possible to divide, but there are limits. Edit: not sure why this is downvoted. You can't divide one Satoshi, unless the protocol is updated.

You realize there is no down-voting right?

And your post isn't being voted for because it is irreverent.

Lets say that the value of a BC goes up to 1 Million USD somehow (which is REALLY unlikely), a Satoshi is still worth a penny. We understand that it can't divide infinity and yes you are right by saying it, but for this discussion, we are able to divide a bit-coin as much as needed, and besides- if it ever gets to the point (somehow) that we need to, a future protocol could fix it.