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A CNN Viewer Has Questions for Mike Rowe

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Re: A CNN Viewer Has Questions for Mike Rowe

#141

Post by randomdata »

alayne wrote: post #129
randomdata wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Markets still remain supply and demand driven. Industries that have roots in college educations have appeared more stable because the number of people with degrees has historically been relatively low. When we have more educated people than jobs that benefit from such an education, incomes will drop and it will become difficult to find work. The trades are starting to gain appeal right now because people have put mor…

Show me any evidence that college educated people, in particular, are having trouble finding employment. These numbers look extremely favorable http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_chart_001.htm .

Seeing as how we're talking about a relative increase in difficulty, I'm not sure what we're supposed to take away from a single data point?

You can see here[1] that this decade has brought on a distinct change in unemployment rates for college graduates. The last four years averaged an entire percentage point higher than the highest rate ever seen before. Since we both seem to agree that unemployment rates are a reasonable metric for determining the difficulty of finding work, it seems pretty clear that it is more difficult now as a college graduate than it once was.

[1] http://qzprod.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/screen-shot-2013-0...

Re: A CNN Viewer Has Questions for Mike Rowe

#142

Post by m4x »

_delirium wrote: post #45
pnathan wrote: post #38

I hadn't heard about Mike Rowe until he started his program to popularize the trades. It's an interesting perspective, and I don't really have a beef about it. But let me make a few factual points, borne out of my experience and the experience I have in growing up around tradespeople and being related to tradespeople. * The trades are physically hard labor edit: It might not be clear what this entails, as perhaps not…

> The trades do not pay well until/unless you specialize into certain areas. A problem that makes this particularly bad is that many now don't pay at all until you manage to become qualified as a high-skill specialist. A lot of the low-end work has been automated, which has gutted the traditional pipeline where you start with low-skill jobs and move upwards. It's not just that low-skill welding jobs (say) don't pay w…

My experience as an electrician is that there's work available even for completely green newbies who don't know anything useful, and once you've worked for a few years and become a registered tradesman you're pretty much sorted for life.

I'm not sure where you're getting these anecdotes about poor pay, high risk of injury, short careers and unstable employment. Most of the guys I work with have had long careers (often with a single employer for 10-20 years) and haven't sustained any serious injuries. The ones who don't want to take on management roles get paid very well even though they're 'just' highly skilled tradesmen, and the ones who want to go further run their own companies and are doing very well for themselves.

Ironically, I actually terminated my career as a software developer because I was developing RSI and found the work rather unsatisfying (despite really enjoying programming work in general). Working as a tradesman has so far proven to be far more satisfying and far better for my health - plus it leaves me free to work on my own projects after hours rather than forcing me to leave them unfinished since I already spent a full day working inside.

Re: A CNN Viewer Has Questions for Mike Rowe

#143

Post by Fomite »

I've always found it puzzling that many businesses believe that if they can't fill a job, it can't be because they're offering too low a wage - they invariably say the pay is fair.

If went around trying to buy bread at what I thought was a fair price, and found no takers, my immediate reaction would not be "Well, bakers just don't want to work hard."

Re: A CNN Viewer Has Questions for Mike Rowe

#144

Post by bittercynic »

m4x wrote: post #142
_delirium wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The trades do not pay well until/unless you specialize into certain areas. A problem that makes this particularly bad is that many now don't pay at all until you manage to become qualified as a high-skill specialist. A lot of the low-end work has been automated, which has gutted the traditional pipeline where you start with low-skill jobs and move upwards. It's not just that low-skill welding jobs (say) don't pay w…

My experience as an electrician is that there's work available even for completely green newbies who don't know anything useful, and once you've worked for a few years and become a registered tradesman you're pretty much sorted for life. I'm not sure where you're getting these anecdotes about poor pay, high risk of injury, short careers and unstable employment. Most of the guys I work with have had long careers (ofte…

Who do green newbies need to talk to for that kind of opportunity?

Years ago I applied with the local IBEW, earned very high marks on the written test and interview, and it took them YEARS* to call me back with an invitation to start the program. By then I had other things going on and couldn't take the opportunity.

At the time I had a feeling I wasn't approaching things in an optimal way, but I sure couldn't figure out how to create a more immediate opportunity.

*not hyperbole, it literally was years later.

Re: A CNN Viewer Has Questions for Mike Rowe

#145

Post by taeric »

m4x wrote: post #140
taeric wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wasn't my post, but I believe the point is that the vast majority of people can't physically do some of these jobs. This is an interesting parallel to the fallacy that many fall into in trying to get really good at sports so that they have a straight path to a lucrative career. Simply put, statistically you are not likely to be able to cut it in that industry.

When you say 'some of these jobs', are you talking about, say, manual labour at oil wells? I have a hard time thinking of any trade that an average person would struggle to thrive in if they were willing to do the work. A few exist, but to use them as a reason to avoid trade work is disingenuous. In fact, even working as a labourer at an oil well is easy enough that one of my friends who normally works as a graphic d…

Just going from the examples given. Welding or any construction in typical Louisiana weather.

And, I am far from against trade work. If anything, I wish I had been more considering of them when I was younger.

Regarding my comparison. I meant simply that it was similar. Most "trade" jobs are things that you can make decent money on, certainly. Interestingly enough, so are most "sport" related jobs. You may not be the star athlete, but a lot of "mediocre" sport jobs pay quite decently. Especially if you are able to fully devote yourself to it. To think just getting your foot in the door is a sure path to that "straight line to a 6 figure salary" is absurd.

Re: A CNN Viewer Has Questions for Mike Rowe

#146

Post by taeric »

Crito wrote: post #136
taeric wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wasn't my post, but I believe the point is that the vast majority of people can't physically do some of these jobs. This is an interesting parallel to the fallacy that many fall into in trying to get really good at sports so that they have a straight path to a lucrative career. Simply put, statistically you are not likely to be able to cut it in that industry.

I don't think inability to perform these jobs is the limiting factor. In the past, larger percentages of the population have had hard labor jobs. Maybe we're all fatter, but if we are talking about 18 year olds getting into a physically demanding job, that should be far less of an issue (less of an issue as it would be for, say, a 35 year old, who has had 17 more years of their body decaying and 17 more years of eati…

My guess is that the ages of the people involved in many of these situations is a touch higher than 18. Also, beware considerations of the past. In the past, larger percentages of the population died before hitting 15 years of age.

Re: A CNN Viewer Has Questions for Mike Rowe

#147

Post by treyp »

bcoates wrote: post #42
quaunaut wrote: post #23

> Think about it. Universities get to decide how much money to charge their students. Likewise, parents and students decide if they can afford to pay it. It’s a pretty simple proposition. But when the government suddenly makes hundreds of billions of dollars in student loans readily available — under the popular (and voter-friendly) theory that “everyone should go to college” — we see an unintended consequence. Well…

While it's true that tuition is a larger source of revenue than it used to be, most of that increase can't be explained by falling subsidies. According to this http://www.higheredinfo.org/dbrowser/index.php?submeasure=68... total inflation-adjusted revenue per student went from $5,846 in 1991 to $11,016 in 2011.

That comparison becomes $9,644 in 1991 to $11,016 in 2011 when adjusting for inflation: http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=5846+1991+dollars+in+20...

Re: A CNN Viewer Has Questions for Mike Rowe

#148

Post by bcoates »

barake wrote: post #113
bcoates wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While it's true that tuition is a larger source of revenue than it used to be, most of that increase can't be explained by falling subsidies. According to this http://www.higheredinfo.org/dbrowser/index.php?submeasure=68... total inflation-adjusted revenue per student went from $5,846 in 1991 to $11,016 in 2011.

I'm not sure the linked data is correct. The charts from the 2012 SHEEO report [1] shows revenue/student increasing from $10,869 in 1991 to $11,095 in 2012 (these are 2012 dollars). Here is the page with links to the 2012 report and data: http://www.sheeo.org/node/631 [1] http://www.sheeo.org/sites/default/files/publications/All%20...

I think you're right, something's wrong with my source.

I'm not sure the SHEEO number's usable "raw", as it uses its own ad-hoc inflation calculation (HECA) instead of CPI or GDP, but even correcting for that I can't reproduce the numbers in the NCHEMS site from its supposed source.

Re: A CNN Viewer Has Questions for Mike Rowe

#149

Post by randomdata »

shubb wrote: post #123
bittercynic wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The pseudo-libertarian nonsense is unpleasant for me, too, but I see great value in cheer leading for blue collar work. I don't know of anyone else saying "Blue collar work is an honorable thing to do, and you're a fool to judge someone for doing it." At least no one with as high a profile as MR.

Some people do seem to genuinely look down on 'blue collar' work. Last week, my sisters friends went for a meal out to celebrate her birthday. Her boyfriend drives freight trains, and seems to get some strange attitude from her friends. They are mostly working for free while trying to break into film, or journalism. A few are teachers, which the others seem to see as 'giving up'. Yes, they are hipsters. I loved this…

I both farm and write software professionally. I find the differences in reactions that I get, depending on which career I claim to have, to be quite amazing.

Re: A CNN Viewer Has Questions for Mike Rowe

#150

Post by bcoates »

Cowicide wrote: post #103

Mike Rowe continuously spouts on a "skills gap" but doesn't seem to know anything about "job lock". http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Job_lock He keep avoiding the topic of health care in the USA several times in the Q&A. Frankly, I think Rowe is out of his league here and doesn't understand that we need a true single payer system for health care: http://www.pnhp.org/facts/single-payer-faq

Is there some reason to think health-care related "Job Lock" is a thing in the US after COBRA and HIPPA?
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