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Hong Kong Confirms First Human Case of Bird Flu

reuters.com

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Re: Hong Kong Confirms First Human Case of Bird Flu

#21

Post by panacea »

ars wrote: post #19
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This flu is a bit worse than the standard one; you have a 3/10 chance of dying. As always, stay away from live birds...no pet chickens...think twice about buying that parrot.

> As always, stay away from live birds...no pet chickens...think twice about buying that parrot. What? No! This virus doesn't just magically show up in a bird, the bird has to catch it from another bird. Stay away from large flocks, sure. But home pets? No problem at all.

Don't live/eat/sleep in close proximity to fowl pens.

Re: Hong Kong Confirms First Human Case of Bird Flu

#22

Post by Fomite »

AmVess wrote: post #11
lwf wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google's predictions of flu trends haven't been accurate recently: http://commonhealth.wbur.org/2013/01/google-flu-trends-cdc

I see the point of the article, but it is dated January 13, 2013...which isn't recent.

That would have been last flu season, which is about as recent as evaluations of flu surveillance systems get.

Also, I saw a presentation given at an infectious disease conference...less than a month ago. Google Flu Trends appears to really break down at small spatial scales, like a single city. Unfortunately, Google is also super opaque about how it works, so it's hard to tune.

Re: Hong Kong Confirms First Human Case of Bird Flu

#23

Post by Fomite »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #13
Kilo-byte wrote: post #5

it's the usual flu season people, no need to fear this thing

This flu is a bit worse than the standard one; you have a 3/10 chance of dying. As always, stay away from live birds...no pet chickens...think twice about buying that parrot.

It should be noted that transmissibility and virulence (your chance of dying) aren't particularly correlated, if at all, so while you don't want to get this, there's nothing yet to suggest wide-scale person to person transmission.

Indeed, there's some evidence to suggest avian strains of influenza (vs. pig strains) have a little bit of a disadvantage when it comes to kicking off pandemics.

Also, early mortality estimates are super unstable.

Re: Hong Kong Confirms First Human Case of Bird Flu

#24

Post by Crito »

panacea wrote: post #21
ars wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As always, stay away from live birds...no pet chickens...think twice about buying that parrot. What? No! This virus doesn't just magically show up in a bird, the bird has to catch it from another bird. Stay away from large flocks, sure. But home pets? No problem at all.

Don't live/eat/sleep in close proximity to fowl pens.

Have you ever smelled a chicken? That is good advice regardless.

Re: Hong Kong Confirms First Human Case of Bird Flu

#25

Post by ddeck »

Renaud wrote: post #20
Anon84 wrote: post #18

A few comments based on my experience working with these things back in 2009 [0] 1. Yes, this thing has a mortality rate of 30%. What that means is that out of all detected cases 30% of the people have died. The keyword here is detected. At this stage, and without a massive surveillance plan looking for specifically for serological evidence of the virus, authorities are only aware of a tiny fraction of the actual cas…

Being in Hong Kong and having lived through the SARS era, I'm happy when someone brings us back to reality and doesn't play the OMG-we'll-all-gonna-die scenario. In the case of SARS, even though it killed more people in Hong Kong than anywhere else -many of them doctors and nurses-, the secondary effects of the disease affected everyone here: travel to Hong Kong stopped, the economy tanked, companies and shops closed…

>Being in Hong Kong and having lived through the SARS era, I'm happy when someone brings us back to reality and doesn't play the OMG-we'll-all-gonna-die scenario.

I couldn't agree more. Even SARS, concerning as it was when its pathology was unknown, was associated with fewer deaths in Hong Kong than influenza during the same year.

Re: Hong Kong Confirms First Human Case of Bird Flu

#26

Post by seanmcdirmid »

ars wrote: post #19
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This flu is a bit worse than the standard one; you have a 3/10 chance of dying. As always, stay away from live birds...no pet chickens...think twice about buying that parrot.

> As always, stay away from live birds...no pet chickens...think twice about buying that parrot. What? No! This virus doesn't just magically show up in a bird, the bird has to catch it from another bird. Stay away from large flocks, sure. But home pets? No problem at all.

I was talking about my own rules being a resident of the PRC. If you live outside the PRC, you can probably follow more lax rules to stay alive.

Re: Hong Kong Confirms First Human Case of Bird Flu

#27

Post by ndemic »

creativityland wrote: post #14
bjz_ wrote: post #9

For an chillingly realistic depiction of how a worldwide pandemic could unfold, I'd highly recommend watching the film Contagion (2011)[1]. For all those who complain governments and scientists overreacting to new flu strains, I would prefer that than the alternative - doing too little and being swamped by an uncontrollable virus. [1] http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1598778/

Will have to give this a watch. Not sure how realistic but Plague Inc is not bad for an iPhone/iPad game. http://www.ndemiccreations.com/en/

Glad you think so ;)

Re: Hong Kong Confirms First Human Case of Bird Flu

#29

Post by dmgd »

thaumasiotes wrote: post #28

Huh, I assumed this had happened some time ago. The hong kong airport PA system has been pumping out warnings about bird flu since september at least. ("Do not touch birds while in Hong Kong. If you get a cough, inform the appropriate authorities.")

I was there for a few days at the beginning of July and they had those warnings then too (plus a body heat scanner, which was a little bit disconcerting because I was very warm at that point!!)
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