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Amazon Prime Air

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Re: Amazon Prime Air

#361
post #184

The real surprising thing is that Amazon is accelerating the post industrial age. The economy is growing but wages are stagnant. A demand for human labor is declining while corporations are making massive profits. These drones are an example where machines are replacing jobs that were once done by humans. As we pull out of the recession in the US, the fastest growing job market is the low wage/retail jobs. Walmart wi…

It's a common but incorrect assumption to think that replacing repetitive human tasks with machines leads to wide-scale unemployment.

Of course the delivery person who is replaced by drones is out of a job initially, but this doesn't doom everyone to unemployment. Higher productivity through mechanisation leads to lower prices, which means more cash available for other purchases, which leads to jobs growth in other areas and a rise in living standards. There are always winners and losers in any technological change, but the general quality of life for society as a whole improves when menial repetitive tasks are replaced by automation.

There are more jobs around now than there was at the dawn of industrialisation, and has been, every step of the way. This will continue to be true, despite difficult adjustment periods for individuals and businesses in effected industries. Stagnation is much worse than progress, and trying to regulate away technological progress is even worse than that.

I think the major applications for this are in areas where people can't quite imagine yet. Like the increase in internet speed and portable processors which ran ahead of services to leverage it, this type of infrastructure may start by delivering books, and end who-knows-where. Distributed aged-care with medication and meals delivered in-home? Some bizarre physical-world words with friends? The possibilities are quite exciting if it can be intelligently standardized.

Re: Amazon Prime Air

#363
post #176

(Disclaimer: I work for Amazon, but not for anything related to this. This is the first time I'm learning of Prime Air.) I'm somewhat disheartened by the skepticism of a lot of comments from HN, Reddit, and Twitter. Not stuff like "I wonder how they'll handle adverse weather" (which I think is intellectually interesting) but stuff like "As soon as one of these kills a dog it's done for". What merit is there in rootin…

My skepticism is based around the fact that the video and information seem like a cheap trick to gain PR.

The technology is interesting and has a bunch of really tough problems that need solving. Amazon haven't even begun to acknowledged any of the issues, let alone begin to solve them. Instead they built a shiny video of a fake product to cash in on the enthusiasm for drones.

Re: Amazon Prime Air

#365
post #307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can already buy a little quadcopter, attach a camera to it, and fly it around; the relevant regulations here are just about commercial use, right? That's actually a minor quibble with your argument, though. My real problem is this: you're skeptical that they won't be regulated enough, so you want them regulated out of existence? Your solution is a bit like saying, "well, the NSA will be able to spy on our network c…

Yes, the relevant regulations are about commercial use which is COMPLETELY backwards from a privacy standpoint. To answer your question, no, I don't want drones to not exist and it would not be worthwhile if I did. Since they obviously do and will continue to exist, we should be thinking about the privacy considerations first with regards to how you would restrict the government's use of drones and THEN go on to the…

I assume you mean Kyllo, which I have a number of problems with (though I'm somewhat reassured by some of Scalia's points in the majority opinion). But maybe my imagination isn't good enough - what's the scary scenario with drones that Kyllo makes legal?

Re: Amazon Prime Air

#366

This is an awesome idea of course. It's a glimpse into the future. I remember tweeting with Chris Anderson of 3D Robotics about a year ago about autonomous package delivery from A > B. I'm sure Bezos and team started nerding out on this concept years ago. Eventually, "vehicles" the size of UPS trucks will be delivering packages autonomously all over the world. This is definitely a glimpse into that day. And it won't…

I can see an Amazon Prime subscription coming with some type of landing pad dongle. You lay out your mat & dongle somewhere, put in an address and the drone flies to the address, listens for the signal from the dongle and drops the package on the 'X' if the details match. My bank currently gives me a two-factor dongle for secure logins, same type of approach for authenticating delivery and indicating a safe landing area.

There is a lot of really interesting problems to solve to turn this into a commercial service. Would be very fun to work on.

Re: Amazon Prime Air

#367

This is an awesome idea of course. It's a glimpse into the future. I remember tweeting with Chris Anderson of 3D Robotics about a year ago about autonomous package delivery from A > B. I'm sure Bezos and team started nerding out on this concept years ago. Eventually, "vehicles" the size of UPS trucks will be delivering packages autonomously all over the world. This is definitely a glimpse into that day. And it won't…

With respect to (1), why would delivery drones fly at high altitudes? I suspect that the only overlap in the flight envelopes of delivery drones and of manned fixed-wing aircraft will be riiiight around the airport, and during horrible plane crashes.

(Manned helicopters are another matter, but how many of those are there really? Even in the big cities.)

Re: Amazon Prime Air

#368
I hope eventually drones will just deliver raw materials and resources for product materialization (next generation manufacturing) at home or on-site, using both commercial and open source product materialization specifications distributed electronically.

Re: Amazon Prime Air

#369

Earlier quoted context omitted.

bookstores, where one can browse more than the cover and a few pages

What prevents a company from offering a time-limited preview of an ebook?

There's still a fairly large difference between a time limited preview of an ebook and a time limited preview of a book.

Re: Amazon Prime Air

#370
post #176

(Disclaimer: I work for Amazon, but not for anything related to this. This is the first time I'm learning of Prime Air.) I'm somewhat disheartened by the skepticism of a lot of comments from HN, Reddit, and Twitter. Not stuff like "I wonder how they'll handle adverse weather" (which I think is intellectually interesting) but stuff like "As soon as one of these kills a dog it's done for". What merit is there in rootin…

It's not exciting. Ship or shut up.
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