Amazon Prime Air • Hacker News Board

Re: Amazon Prime Air

#201

Post by prawn » Mon, Dec 02, 2013, 2:50 AM UTC

dakrisht wrote: post #130

This is an awesome idea of course. It's a glimpse into the future. I remember tweeting with Chris Anderson of 3D Robotics about a year ago about autonomous package delivery from A > B. I'm sure Bezos and team started nerding out on this concept years ago. Eventually, "vehicles" the size of UPS trucks will be delivering packages autonomously all over the world. This is definitely a glimpse into that day. And it won't…

Birds.

I can imagine FAA approval subject to a register of drone flightpaths and locations, but if something takes a knock from a bird (or malicious interception, as you suggested), I assume that Amazon would schedule a manual pick-up and replacement, wearing the cost in the process.

Re: Amazon Prime Air

#202

Post by drawkbox » Mon, Dec 02, 2013, 2:50 AM UTC

crusso wrote: post #113

Apart from the Scifi-ness of having drones work well in the best of conditions, the back-up infrastructure required to support bad conditions would seem to make the whole venture unrealistic. Let's say that a little drone could reliably carry a package to doorsteps 10 miles away. Let's assume that it can navigate past trees and power lines and kite strings and so forth. So Amazon builds up these service centers with…

The real-time nature of knowing that would allow them to turn on/off air delivery based on conditions or backup. I think the perfect world would be a combination of air and land autonomous vehicles. Maybe even the vehicles take it the last mile and it is flown in more robust air delivery drones more weather proof. Over time I am sure this will happen in some way.

Re: Amazon Prime Air

#203

Post by drawkbox » Mon, Dec 02, 2013, 2:52 AM UTC

konaseer wrote: post #22

what if someone shoots downs these drones for invasion of privacy/trespassing/target shooting etc ?

It will happen but it will also know its location and maybe video. So just like stealing on the street probably, still theft and a more risky option possibly.

Re: Amazon Prime Air

#204

Post by rsheridan6 » Mon, Dec 02, 2013, 2:53 AM UTC

ams6110 wrote: post #43

chad_oliver wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, they're not entirely unsuitable for urban areas. Instead, their (relatively) short range means that they're unsuitable for anything except urban areas. If designed poorly, they would be very unsafe, but there are plenty of ways to increase the safety. For example, notice that the drones have more than 4 rotors. This gives a bit of redundancy so that a motor can fail without causing the drone to crash.

Can't wait until the first time one shreds a customer's dog, (or face, child, etc.) as it tries to deposit a package on her front porch.

The whole thing shouldn't weigh very much, assuming it's limited to delivering lightweight objects, and the rotors could be covered with a screen. I don't see much potential for danger. The worst thing that could happen would be a total system failure causing it to drop out of the sky, and even that could probably be mitigated with something like a failsafe that deploys a parachute if the speed is too high.

It should be safer than multi-ton delivery trucks, which can and have killed people. I was a mailman at one time - we were required to get out and look behind the truck before backing up because a mailman once killed a toddler who wandered behind his truck (though I doubt very many carriers actually follow that rule).

Re: Amazon Prime Air

#205

Post by morgo » Mon, Dec 02, 2013, 2:53 AM UTC

saryant wrote: post #94

My personal theory is that Amazon hates being reliant on UPS and FedEx. I can't see Bezos being thrilled that so much of his empire relies on the Teamsters. Note that UPS's labor agreement with the Teamsters expires in the next few years. That poses a big risk to Amazon's infrastructure if there's labor unrest during the negotiation. I've long suspected they were working towards a point where they could handle the la…

Totally agree. Even if this concept doesn't work perfectly, it puts pressure on couriers to give Amazon the discounts they want.

Its kind of like how large enterprises use an Open Office support quote to bring down the cost of their Microsoft office licensing.

Re: Amazon Prime Air

#206

Post by Xdes » Mon, Dec 02, 2013, 2:53 AM UTC

Well if this becomes a thing then the NSA will be golden once everyone is conditioned to drones flying all over the place.

Re: Amazon Prime Air

#207

Post by flyinglizard » Mon, Dec 02, 2013, 2:53 AM UTC

scoot wrote: post #124

http://www.amazon.com/primeair When will I be able to choose Prime Air as a delivery option? A: We hope the FAA's rules will be in place as early as sometime in 2015. We will be ready at that time. Sorry, but not a chance. I'm intimately familiar with the flight controller, motor and batter technology behind multi-rotors, and I can state unequivocally that this is just not ready for 'prime'-time (so-to-speak :) There…

1. New LiPo batteries recharge at up to 10C (ten times their rated hourly capacity), which means a full charge under 10 minutes (including final balancing stage).

2. Octocopters, unless loaded to the hilt, can more or less fly uninterrupted even when missing a propeller.

3. Multirotors fly well even in strong winds (20mph winds and more).

I don't see any technical difficulty preventing a company with the resources of Amazon to introduce this service in a year. The major problems are legislative.

Re: Amazon Prime Air

#208

Post by goronbjorn » Mon, Dec 02, 2013, 2:54 AM UTC

jmduke wrote: post #176

(Disclaimer: I work for Amazon, but not for anything related to this. This is the first time I'm learning of Prime Air.) I'm somewhat disheartened by the skepticism of a lot of comments from HN, Reddit, and Twitter. Not stuff like "I wonder how they'll handle adverse weather" (which I think is intellectually interesting) but stuff like "As soon as one of these kills a dog it's done for". What merit is there in rootin…

> What merit is there in rooting for failure for failure's sake?

You must be new to Hacker News…

Re: Amazon Prime Air

#209

Post by dannypgh » Mon, Dec 02, 2013, 2:56 AM UTC

maccard wrote: post #87

fragsworth wrote: post #26

Brick-and-mortar stores are doomed. I can only see a few types of products remaining in brick-and-mortars: Clothes that you want to try for size, fruits and vegetables that you want to sample, and restaurants... any others?

My parents still buy EVERYTHING in brick and mortars. I work in a retail store, selling computers and accessories. People tell me it's dead, I can guarantee you it's not. Maybe when our parents generations are gone, but not until then.

Capitalism fetishizes growth, not revenue. If the business isn't growing it will not attract investment dollars, and will quickly have a hard time staying competitive.

Re: Amazon Prime Air

#210

Post by a8da6b0c91d » Mon, Dec 02, 2013, 2:57 AM UTC

sbierwagen wrote: post #169

a8da6b0c91d wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> battery density Why wouldn't these drones be gasoline powered?

A quadrotor (or 8-rotor here) drone depends on rapidly throttling the propeller speed on each arm up and down, something that you can't do with a mechanical transmission without adding a lot of weight. You can do a gas/electric hybrid, but again, weight.

I kind of also wonder why not a more traditional articulated rotor helicopter design. The point of the quadrotors is they're cheap and simple, despite being much less efficient. Surely the capital investment in a full fleet of these things would favor a true helicopter rotor.