41–50 of 173 posts
So the article tries to describe the hidden complexity of software with a hiking analogy but then it leaves a huge part missing. Let's extend the analogy somewhat... this isn't your first hiking trip. In fact, you've been on dozens and dozens of hiking trips. You're an experienced hiker. Yet, why do you continue to give meaningless as-the-crow-flies estimates of how long it will take you to get to your destination? T…
On the other hand, giving realistic estimates I often hear clients say, "I asked around, and other folks say this should take half what you're quoting." Usually this happens before the work, but I once had it happen in the middle of a long-term engagement after I delivered a two-week invoice, and they were disappointed I hadn't accomplished more. So if I'm not careful I can lose my clients' trust, which is my highest asset. I've gotten pretty good at explaining why a job isn't 5 minutes (or 1 day, or whatever), but I might save this article as something to share if a client doesn't have much experience doing software projects.
It's because estimates are really just a test of your imagination and skill. They're a "different game" from delivering something. Here are some examples:
How long does it take you to add 1 + 1 together? The only correct amount of time is "0 - no amount of time." But clearly that's not true, is it?
How long would it take you to multiply 5 by 7? Well, zero. No amount of time - you know it 'by heart'. It doesn't take you any amount of time to multiply 5 by seven. Well, clearly, that's not true is it?
How long would it take you to test whether 31337 is prime or not, by any means? Like, 1 second because Wolfram Alpha can tell me I bet. But clearly it wouldn't take me ONE second, would it?
How long would it take you to write a function to test whether an integer less than 2^32 is prime or not, without having to be super-efficient about it? Well like 10 seconds. But, clearly that's not true, is it?
And so on. How long does it take to put a twitter bootstrap page up? Like, 5 minutes.
How long does it take to...
You should be able to build an app that doesn't crash and does what you're trying to code in like a day.
You should be able to build something that is software you can launch with in like a week, as an MVP.
You should be able to replace someone else's mature product with a reimplementation in like a month.
You should be able to build a scalable business that is ready for a series A in like a year.
These things are not meant to be accurate, so much as show that you have imagination.
So the article tries to describe the hidden complexity of software with a hiking analogy but then it leaves a huge part missing. Let's extend the analogy somewhat... this isn't your first hiking trip. In fact, you've been on dozens and dozens of hiking trips. You're an experienced hiker. Yet, why do you continue to give meaningless as-the-crow-flies estimates of how long it will take you to get to your destination? T…
That a project is estimatable has to mean that novelty is low and predictability is high. But low novelty is a sign of duplication, which should be factored out into things like libraries, frameworks, and self-service tools. High predictability is either a sign of duplication or it's a sign that people have basically agreed not to learn anything during a project. If you are shipping early and often and study users and metrics as you go, then you will always learn things that affect the plan. Which means that the schedule isn't predictable even in theory.
So the article tries to describe the hidden complexity of software with a hiking analogy but then it leaves a huge part missing. Let's extend the analogy somewhat... this isn't your first hiking trip. In fact, you've been on dozens and dozens of hiking trips. You're an experienced hiker. Yet, why do you continue to give meaningless as-the-crow-flies estimates of how long it will take you to get to your destination? T…
Been going at it for a couple years now with consulting and freelancing. I've finally gotten good at hitting my estimates. What worked for me was to keep strict time of everything (shoutout to toggl.com, love it!), so I could learn from my mistakes. The trouble is now though, my competition seems to be underbidding me, but in reality they're providing those ~33% estimates they will never realistically keep, while I'm…
So the article tries to describe the hidden complexity of software with a hiking analogy but then it leaves a huge part missing. Let's extend the analogy somewhat... this isn't your first hiking trip. In fact, you've been on dozens and dozens of hiking trips. You're an experienced hiker. Yet, why do you continue to give meaningless as-the-crow-flies estimates of how long it will take you to get to your destination? T…
Been going at it for a couple years now with consulting and freelancing. I've finally gotten good at hitting my estimates. What worked for me was to keep strict time of everything (shoutout to toggl.com, love it!), so I could learn from my mistakes. The trouble is now though, my competition seems to be underbidding me, but in reality they're providing those ~33% estimates they will never realistically keep, while I'm…
Right, that was part of my method as well. I learned to keep really good notes of each part of the project. At the end of each project, I compared my "what I thought it would take" with "what it actually took". In subsequent projects, I tried to match up similar complexity items with "what it actually took" notes to remind myself of the pain.
I just don't know why people won't arbitrarily add 2-3 more time on the estimate...
Hofstadter's Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law.
Is it a missed estimate? That depends on who answers.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Been going at it for a couple years now with consulting and freelancing. I've finally gotten good at hitting my estimates. What worked for me was to keep strict time of everything (shoutout to toggl.com, love it!), so I could learn from my mistakes. The trouble is now though, my competition seems to be underbidding me, but in reality they're providing those ~33% estimates they will never realistically keep, while I'm…
What worked for me was to keep strict time of everything (shoutout to toggl.com, love it!), so I could learn from my mistakes Right, that was part of my method as well. I learned to keep really good notes of each part of the project. At the end of each project, I compared my "what I thought it would take" with "what it actually took". In subsequent projects, I tried to match up similar complexity items with "what it…