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A universal income is not such a silly idea

timharford.com

21–30 of 337 posts

Re: A universal income is not such a silly idea

#22

Meanwhile, Europe apart from Switzerland is busy building thicker walls around Fortress Europa. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/01/razor-wire-divi... http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/asylum-policy-and...

Good. Immigration contributes to overpopulation, both by importing new people and causing replacement breeding in the emigrant nation.

Re: A universal income is not such a silly idea

#23
post #6

In a country with it's own currency, wouldn't this just raise prices until finally the effect would be being back to step 1 but with huge inflation. I.e. I'm selling bread for $3. Now I get $1500 free money every month and I know you do too. I'm selling bread for $6 because I know everyone has extra money lying around and since I have extra money I don't really care if people buy less from me.

If prices == amount people are willing to pay, then your analysis would be spot on, but it's basic economics that this isn't the case. The elasticity of bread demand is high (because of the wide variety of substitutable goods, including other bread brands). So you would not expect to see the price change much.

Re: A universal income is not such a silly idea

#24
The reason universal income works for the Swiss is because they are the Swiss. There are many countries and cultures and people for which it would not work, at the very least not until some unknown time period required for adjustment, and even then only if conditions were right.

This is why (fiscally-liberal-supported) universal healthcare (and subsequently why Obamacare has flunked so far, because they wanted to promise universal healthcare and had to settle for a crappy healthcare marketplace that only a layer and more red tape to add to the overhead and cost of providing healthcase) and (fiscally-conservative-supported) fair tax initiatives would not work in the U.S.; because much of the economy, social norms, etc. are based upon it NOT being set up that way.

Status-quo is the best fiscal option.

And to everyone complaining that universal income would add to inflation, I'd like to add that I hope you are also not a fan of quantitative easing that we've done that will royally screw the U.S. in the future. We are now in "heavy experimental mode where we don't know what will happen", according to Ivy league experts on economic matters.

Re: A universal income is not such a silly idea

#25
The thing I genuinely don't understand regarding the basic income for all argument is that surely it just moves the goal posts rather than solves the problem at hand?

In the current system, you can go stay at home and get income support, which should provide you with the basics i.e. a home, food, electricity etc. If you would like more than this, you can go and get a job and hopefully earn more (have a better lifestyle) than staying at home not working.

[Note the 'should' and 'hopefully' - This system may not always work, but when it doesn't it's generally a fault with wages paid not being sufficient rather than the benefits system being broken]

This therefore means there is an incentive to go work. There is also control, to make sure the money the unemployed person is getting is mostly spent on the basics (such as housing, rather than say drugs).

The problem with suddenly giving everyone a minimum amount of money, is that due to everyone now 'at least' having that amount of money at hand, this becomes the new 'bottom' of the market. If I get a job, I earn money on top of this basic amount, which means I can afford nice things and the person unemployed still can't afford anything.

To clarify, this works similar to pricing of items in different markets. A beer in the UK is ~£3.50 (£5 in London), a beer in Vietnam is about 14 pence. Both costs are fairly relative to what they would have to pay their work force to produce the item (plus cover costs and make a profit) and what the local market can afford to pay.

If let's hypothetically say, you gave everyone in Vietnam this basic wage, the cost of beer would not remain at 14 pence. The first reason is because the work force would find their existing pay negligible compared to the basic pay (so wages would have to rise to be incentive to work on top of basic pay) which would in turn cause cost of manufacturing to rise, but also the market would realise with this extra money available - the price could be set higher and would rise accordingly.

Now back in the UK if this was to occur, you would have slight price rises due to these factors which would in affect move the poverty line up higher, which would mean the people at the bottom are still poor relatively.

What's worse is that assuming the people who are unemployed are given the choice on how that money is spent, they may in fact not spend the money sensibly (i.e. on their housing) and end up homeless instead.

The final problem with this model is that the cost of living and economic output is not evenly distributed throughout a country. £1750 a month in northern England may give you a fantastic lifestyle, where as in London you'd barely cover your rent. (What happens to the unemployed in London in a fixed give everyone a basic income situation? They have to leave London and move where they can afford, which then makes it potentially harder to find a job and splits the country into two halves, the elite / the poor).

Re: A universal income is not such a silly idea

#27
post #11

Rather than these posts discussing universal basic income in abstract, I would like to see someone go through a back of the envelope scenario for a real country that might try it. Switzerland or some other European country. Presumably there would need to be major changes to income tax brackets (especially for the lower income tiers) & dismantling of various existing welfare programs in order to fund a basic income. I…

Very good point. After all, we all know how sometimes wonderful ideas can turn out badly [1].

[1] - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communism

Re: A universal income is not such a silly idea

#28
post #12

It's not a silly idea at all but I like to think of myself as progressive and I think it is a very bad idea in reality vs on paper. Just look at how college costs magically rise to the availability of loans and grants. What do you think is going to happen to food and rent prices once those supply chains figure out there is much more profit to be made? The Walton family alone has more wealth then the lower 42% rest of…

"Just look at how college costs magically rise to the availability of loans and grants. "

That's the universal problem with subsidies. That, and reward for non-performance.

Re: A universal income is not such a silly idea

#29
post #12

It's not a silly idea at all but I like to think of myself as progressive and I think it is a very bad idea in reality vs on paper. Just look at how college costs magically rise to the availability of loans and grants. What do you think is going to happen to food and rent prices once those supply chains figure out there is much more profit to be made? The Walton family alone has more wealth then the lower 42% rest of…

Is it silly to assume that competition in a free market will produce startups trying to upset this situation in markets that do not have a high barrier to entry?

Re: A universal income is not such a silly idea

#30
post #6

In a country with it's own currency, wouldn't this just raise prices until finally the effect would be being back to step 1 but with huge inflation. I.e. I'm selling bread for $3. Now I get $1500 free money every month and I know you do too. I'm selling bread for $6 because I know everyone has extra money lying around and since I have extra money I don't really care if people buy less from me.

I used to wonder what would happen if everyone in the UK got £1m given to them as a one off payment. We'd all be millionaires but poor as each other.

Emigrate? I guess that could be the problem with universal income as well. You get £20k p.a. for doing nothing, so maybe you'll be doing nothing on a beach in Asia?
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